Montanans of all stripes seem to agree on at least two things: They care deeply about conservation and public lands, and life here is getting worse.
Those were two key findings of the 2024 Montana Statewide Survey conducted by the University of Montana's Crown of the Continent and Greater Yellowstone Initiative. The initiative has conducted the poll every two years since 2014, making this year's the sixth biennial iteration. This year's results were released Tuesday.
"(T)he deep connection that we have to public lands and the shared recognition of our state’s natural beauty is still there," Rick Graetz, a UM Honors College professor who oversees the initiative, said of consistent themes over the decade of polling. Specifically regarding access to federal public lands, "nothing has changed in these 10 years; it’s gotten stronger if anything."
However, he noted, Montanans are increasingly "overwhelmed" with population growth in the state, even in places "out on the prairie."
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Survey results showed that both the profound appreciation for public lands and natural environment — and a pervasive feeling of worsening quality of life — were widespread across the state's normally gaping political divide.
The poll was conducted by New Bridge Strategy, whose other work includes polling and research for Republicans, and by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3), which does the same for Democrats. Pollsters gathered responses from 500 Montana voters across the state March 23–28.
"We make sure … we proportionally allocate responses throughout the state," Lori Weigel of New Bridge Strategy said, "so that we make sure we’re really reflective of all Montanans."
And across the state, Montanans reported things are getting worse.
Sixty-two-percent of respondents said quality of life in their area was worse than five years ago. Thirty-one-percent said it was about the same. Only 6% said quality of life had improved.
Those figures presented an even bleaker picture than the 2022 survey, which showed 55% of people thought life had gotten worse, 36% thought it was about the same and 7% thought things were better.
"While the results were also disproportionate then, that margin has grown in the past two years," said Dave Metz, of FM3. The feeling of a backslide also cut across partisan lines.
Asked about specific concerns, Montanans overwhelmingly pegged sprawling development and drought as leading problems. Ninety-percent of respondents said drought was a serious concern, with 60% saying it was an extreme or very serious problem. Similarly, 90% said development spreading to former ranches or other open space was a serious concern, with 59% calling it extreme or very serious.
The "changing character of the state," low snowpack and crowding of more people at outdoor recreation sites were also top concerns, with a respective 84%, 78% and 78% of respondents saying those things were serious issues.
Those high levels of concern also marked an increase from 2022 poll results. The share of respondents who thought the "changing character of the state" was an extreme or very serious concern jumped from 45% in 2022 to 57% this year. Similarly, extreme or very serious concern over sprawling development jumped from 52% to 59%.
Respondents also reported they believed their communities were growing too fast, with 57% statewide feeling that way. Thirty-three-percent said the rate of growth in their community was about right, and only 9% said it was too slow.
Missoula, Butte and Bozeman led the state for places where respondents said their community was growing too fast: 69% in both Butte and Bozeman, and 66% in Missoula.
Great Falls, however, was an outlier. Only 23% of people around Great Falls felt it was growing too fast; 54% felt the rate of growth was about right, and 19% said it was too slow.
"The numbers, again, show a lot of concern about the rate of growth," Metz said. "The only place where the public is not as animated about this issue is around Great Falls."
Respondents also worried about more people in the outdoor spaces where they recreate, with 52% reporting they've changed when or where they recreate because of crowding or more people. Thirty-five-percent said they changed their habits because of changes in the climate, such as wildfires, less snow or less water.
Nonetheless, Montanans' visitation of federal public lands is nearly universal and continues to rise.
This year's survey found that 95% of Montanans visited federal public lands — such as national forests, parks, monuments or grasslands, or Bureau of Land Management lands — in the past year. That's a jump from 89% in 2018. About half of respondents visited such lands more than 10 times in the past year.
New Bridge Strategy and FM3 also conduct the annual Conservation in the West Poll in conjunction with Colorado College. Now in its 14th year, that poll examines beliefs and attitudes toward conservation issues and policies in eight intermountain Western states: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The separate UM survey examines similar topics specifically in Montana, a state that regularly leads the seven others in usage of and appreciation for public lands and natural habitat.
Metz said Montana's figures for usage of federal public lands are some of the highest in the nation. They also track with Conservation in the West data showing Montana as a leader in the West for the share of its population that hunts and fishes.
"That actual walking the walk instead of just talking the talk is really a Montana trait," Weigel said.
This year's UM poll also showed Montana's long-standing appreciation of those lands remained strong, with 83% of respondents saying federal public lands in the state help the economy. That's about level with 82% who said the same in 2018. The share of people who thought such lands hurt the economy increased just 1% in those six years to 4%. And 12% thought such lands had no impact on the economy, the same as in 2018.
Conservation issues also remained important as Montana voters head to the polls. Forty-seven-percent said conservation issues were a "primary factor" when deciding whom to vote for; another 36% said conservation was somewhat important and one of several factors they consider. Those figures have remained about the same since 2014.
"It’s also remarkable … the degree to which that sentiment is non-partisan," Metz commented. Survey results showed that 71% of Republicans, 84% of independents and 98% of Democrats said conservation was important to them when choosing whom to vote for.
Even in a state bitterly divided over hot-button topics like abortion and LGBTQ+ themes in library books, Montanans from across the political spectrum seemed to agree on many specific conservation and public lands policies and proposals.
Seventy-three-percent of respondents said they want the U.S. Forest Service to have a public approval process for new hardrock mining around the Smith River headwaters, with half of respondents saying they strongly support it.
"Support cuts across party lines," Weigel said, "it cuts across regions of the state, it’s really everyone."
Similarly, 70% of respondents said they support the BLM's new conservation rule that makes land restoration and conservation as high a priority for the agency as things like mining, oil and gas drilling, grazing, logging and recreation.
"This is one, again, that we saw cutting across party lines," Weigel said, "with nearly two-thirds of Republicans, 64%, and going up to 86% of Democrats."
There was also bipartisan support for the Blackfoot-Clearwater Stewardship Act, sponsored by U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat. The bill is currently awaiting a hearing before the full Senate after passing a committee last fall during its fourth trial through Congress without being passed. It would designate about 79,000 acres of western Montana as new wilderness while opening other areas to logging and recreation.
Overall, 85% of respondents said they support the bill, with 52% saying they strongly support it. That's a slight increase from 83% overall support and 48% strong support in 2022. Only 14% said they oppose the bill, and barely half of that group (8% overall) strongly oppose the bill.
Critics of the bill include motorized-use and active forest management groups who oppose the bill's wilderness designations, as well as some wildlife and wilderness advocates who believe the bill doesn't go far enough. Overall, though, Weigel noted "very low opposition, in fact, for this issue."
Support for the BCSA included 82% of Republicans, 82% of independents and 94% of Democrats.
However, Graetz noted in a prepared statement about the poll, "some of the proposals we've tested for a decade are still languishing in Congress. Given the growing concerns over growth and development, it is time for more lawmakers to embrace conservation efforts that preserve some of Montana's natural beauty and heritage and involve local communities."