CLEVELAND, Ohio — How’s life without three straight first-round picks for the Browns?
They head into the NFL Draft next week without a first-round pick for the third straight season due the Deshaun Watson trade, but they’re not exactly bereft of talent. In fact, they are poised to challenge again for the AFC North crown and hope to make a strong run at the Super Bowl in 2024.
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How have they weathered the first-round drought? Probably a lot better than most folks imagined.
“One, time will tell,” Browns GM Andrew Berry said during his pre-draft press conference on Thursday. “There are a variety of ways to build a team, right?”
He cited the Los Angeles Rams, who have a first-round pick this year for the first time since they moved up to draft Jared Goff in 2016.
“If they keep their first-round pick, it’s the first first-round pick that they’ll have in the Sean McVay era (which began in 2017),” Berry said. “I also think the reality of the first-round picks like the league hit rate, it’s like 50%. They’re lottery tickets, they’re good lottery tickets at the end of the day and they’re highly, highly valuable. But even if you have a first-round pick, it’s certainly not a certain thing.”
In the case of the Rams, they’ve made the playoffs in five of McVay’s seven seasons without a first-round pick, including winning the Super Bowl after the 2021 season, a 23-20 victory over the Bengals. So maybe there’s a method to their madness.
As for the Browns, they’ve made the playoffs once in their two years without a first-round pick, going 11-6 last season and losing 45-14 to the Texans in the wild card round. In 2022, with Watson suspended the first 11 games, they went 7-10. It hasn’t helped that they haven’t been able to reap the benefits of the trade, with Watson’s suspension his first year and 11 missed games with shoulder injuries in his second.
“Having a level of realism in terms of what can be achieved with your pool of resources or your assets, that’s really part of it,” Berry said. “But we’ve been pretty systematic in terms of how we were going to deploy our picks, our dollars. How we were going to manufacture picks to make it up with volume. So we feel pretty good about where the roster sits today, but look, we’re looking forward to having one back next year for sure.”
There are a number of other reasons the Browns haven’t withered without a first-round pick, including some good mid-round drafting and shrewd trades. They traded for Amari Cooper two days before they made the Watson trade, but he still helped make up for not having a first-round pick in 2022 and 2023 with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. In exchange for a fifth-round pick, he’s proven to be one of Berry’s best acquisitions.
Last offseason, the Browns traded for another potential 1,000-yard receiver in Elijah Moore, who had career-highs in catches (59) and yards (640), with the expectation for more with Watson at the helm. He was acquired for the bargain basement price of moving back 32 spots from No. 42 to No. 74, where they drafted fellow receiver Cedric Tillman in 2023.
This offseason, the Browns’ offset the absence of a first-round pick by trading for former Broncos’ first-round receiver Jerry Jeudy, the No. 15 overall pick out of Alabama in 2020. He also came at the fire sale price of fifth- and sixth-round picks in next week’s draft, and also has 1,000-yard potential. With Berry citing the 50-50 chance of a first-rounder hitting, Jeudy brings proven potential and he’ll turn only 25 next week heading into his fifth NFL season.
The Browns also drafted two players in the third and fourth rounds over the past two years that have outplayed their draft status and would be considered “hits” even if they were taken in the first round. In 2022, they selected cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. in the third round, and he’s proven to be one of their best cornerbacks with still plenty of upside. Last season, they pulled off one of the steals of the draft when they tabbed Ohio State offensive tackle Dawand Jones in the fourth round. Originally projected as a first-rounder, Jones played closer to a first-rounder than a fourth, and could be in the Pro Bowl before long.
As for Berry’s two first-round picks, left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. at No. 10 in 2020 and Greg Newsome II at No. 26 in 2021, they’re both considered hits with both starting and both having their fifth-year options picked up once Newsome’s is exercised by May 2. It remains to be seen if they’ll get their blockbuster second deals, but they’re on track to do so.
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The Browns also hit big on some other free agents such as center Ethan Pocic, who was signed in 2022 and has climbed to the top of his position, with a No. 9 ranking his first season, and No. 12 in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus.
All told, the trades, signings and smart picks, with very few usually hitting after the third round, have helped ease the absence of the first-round picks. Besides, having Thursday nights off on draft weekend hasn’t taken the luster off the draft for Berry and his personnel staff.
“Not at all,” he said. “Not at all. I understand that from an external perspective because those are usually the most well-recognized prospects coming into the draft, but we’re excited about maximizing the group of players that we can acquire during the weekend and there’s still a number of good players up and down the draft board.”
What’s more, he’s not worried about how the three-year hiatus will impact the core of the roster going forward.
“It’s probably less about where you select them and how they perform,” Berry said. “We have a really strong, young nucleus with our team and we don’t feel internally like there’s a huge gap in terms of our young veteran pool of players. If anything, the question becomes, ‘Okay, how do we retain as many of these guys as possible?’ as we get into a phase where they’re going to get in their mid-twenties and be eligible for second deals.”
Likewise, their approach to the draft hasn’t changed. They often grade players differently than other teams, and when they have players such as Emerson and Jones to hang their hats on, it’s a testament to their process.
“Where it’s probably been the most different is it’s just been a slower Thursday night,” Berry said. “But in terms of how we think about building the board or how we think about evaluating prospects or managing our picks, that really hasn’t fundamentally changed.”
It’s gone so well to this point, maybe the Browns will make like the Rams and abstain from the first round for a few more years.
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