The battle is between Modi and The People: Parakala Prabhakar

Team Modi seems to be quite confident about getting an absolute majority in the upcoming elections. Prime Minister Modi has set a target of 370 seats for BJP. The narrative propagated by BJP is that 2024 Lok Sabha elections are a done deal. You have been watching the Indian political scenario from close quarters. What is your take on the BJP's rhetoric?

This to my mind is a good trick. It is a kind of jhumla. If they don't make such claims, people will be discussing whether BJP will make it this time. Because they are talking about winning 370 seats, the media is discussing whether this will happen or not. They are not talking about whether BJP will really get a majority. That is why I am saying this is a well planned ploy by the BJP. Now, how many seats BJP have to contest if they should win 370 seats. If they contest 450 seats, which is the highest because they have too many allies now, their strike rate will have to be above 75%, which is very unlikely. They are raising such tall claims because they want to evade the burning questions on unemployment, price rise, inflation, China occupying huge tracts of Indian territory, household debt rising to nearly 40% of the GDP.

You mean to say that BJP is trying to divert the attention of the people from reality by setting this agenda?

Absolutely. A political party's level of confidence has nothing to do with the chances of winning. Confidence and victory are two completely different aspects.

What is the basis of your observation that BJP may not get an absolute majority this time?

My projection is based on the information from the ground level. Under the leadership of Vajpayee and Advani, even at the height of BJP's popularity they were able to bring in 20-22 % of the votes. Even at the height of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement they could not cross 23 %. In 2014 the movement against corruption led by India Against Corruption played a crucial role in garnering more votes for BJP. There was this perception that the UPA regime was corrupt. It was distressed by policy paralysis and BJP became the beneficiary of the popular mood against the UPA govt. But even after riding that huge anti corruption wave, they got about only 27%. Net addition was about 5 to 6%. And in 2019 when they were about to lose a lot of percentage of votes, Pulwama and Balakot occured. That got them eventually 31 % of the votes. But today this additional percentage of votes that went to BJP because of the purported corruption of the Congress is fizzling out, thanks to the electoral bond scam. Those people who got attracted to BJP because of their anti-corruption image are fed up with the party right now. Please don't underestimate the potential of the electoral bond scam. This Modi gate is going to cost them this election. It may be pointed out that other parties also have received electoral bonds. The fact is that BJP has always been having a moral high ground as far as corruption is concerned. The claim was that BJP was a party with a difference. The promise was a clean govt. You have to look at people's perception against that background. So, my calculation is that all that 2014 accrual of votes on the basis of the anti corruption platform is going away from the BJP. The party is going to be back to square one where they started somewhere around 22%. That will bring them down to 220 to 230 seats. Now if we look at the question of Narendra Modi vs which leader or BJP vs Who, then you will have a confusion.

Yeah. BJP always raises that question. They point out that there is no alternative to Modi. So, how do you look at this scenario?

I will say that this election is Narendra Modi vs the people of India. No leader, no party is stronger than the people. After the electoral bond scam has been exposed, this election is very fast turning into a battle between the ruling party and the people of India.

In 1977 after the emergency the Indira regime tasted the wrath of the people. There were huge protests against Indira Gandhi. You don't see any such waves of protest now?

No two historical incidents will be identical.

Of course, but being students of history we can't ignore the past. There is a striking difference between 1977 and 2024. It was the people of North India who really voted Indira out. South India stood by her in the 1977 election. But now, the people of South India are apparently not with Modi while his popularity in the North is more or less intact. What is your take on this?

I am not denying BJP's presence in the Hindi belt. But, they have already reached a peak there. Let us look at what happened in 2004. You might be remembering the India shining campaign by the BJP then. There was no taller leader than Vajpayee in any opposition party. But, the people of India rejected the BJP. I feel it is very very difficult for the BJP to come back to power in this election. There is one more thing that has become very evident. There is some kind of a Modi fatigue. People are getting fed up with the hollow promises of the Modi regime. Instead of telling what they have delivered, Modi and his party are resorting to the tool of communalism. Where are the jobs? There is a huge amount of rural distress, the price of every essential commodity is going up. As far as governance is concerned it is an all round failure. They are saying that India has become the third largest economy. I don't know why people have such a short memory. In 2014 April, the world bank had declared India as the third largest economy from 2011 onwards. Every newspaper in India carried this. Just google and you will get it. How many times does the government want us to make the third largest economy?

BJP seems to be thinking that the neutralisation of article 370 in J&K, the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the implementation of the CAA will pay them dividends in this election. Do you think that these are not enough for the BJP to achieve their target?

I have examined this proposition. Have they been able to recruit a new person to their vote bank because of these ? These acts might have strengthened their core vote bank. But I have not come across a single person who has become pro BJP because of these.

BJP has to get more seats from Bengal, Maharashtra and Andhra in order to meet their goal of 370 seats apart from retaining what they have in Karnataka and Telangana. Do you see any such possibilities?

They may pick up a couple of seats in Andhra thanks to the alliance with TDP. They won 25 seats in Karnataka in the last election. They will lose heavily in the state. They have four seats in Telangana right now. They are going to lose at least half of it.

Prasanth Kishore, the political strategist, has been saying that Bengal and Andhra Pradesh will surprise in terms of the seats the BJP will be gaining. Do you concur with him?

No. I don't get that kind of a feeling at all. In fact I see a lot of panic in the BJP camp.

Does this fear reflect in the arrest of Aravind Kejriwal?

Yes. If they were really confident they would not have arrested Hemant Soren and Kejriwal. They would not have tried to get Rahul Gandhi disqualified from the Lok Sabha. They would not have gone to freeze the bank accounts of the main opposition parties including the Congress. And if this panic continues, they might even do more of these. Look at the way the ruling party has been conducting this election campaign after being in power for the last 10 years. They are going back to the topic of partition. They are talking about Muslim League. They have nothing to say on job creation, price control. They have no progress card to show except their agenda of communalism. They are unsure of their 10 years rule. They don't think that they have anything that could be rewarded by the people. Secondly, they are also worried that they might be punished for the Modi Gate (the electoral bond scam), for the rise in unemployment, price rise and various other things.

Will the huge rise in unemployment play a decisive factor in this election?

Certainly. The rate of unemployment among the youth is 24%. But, if you look at the specific category of youth, who fall between 20 to 25 years, then the unemployment rate is 44 %, which is huge by any standards. And according to the latest ILO report, 83% of these unemployed youth are educated. This reality is going to bite the BJP.

Next year 2025 is going to be the centenary of RSS. They have been working relentlessly all these years to achieve their goals by the time they are 100 years old. So, don't you think that they may regret their dependence on Modi if BJP is not going to win this election?

It is likely. One thing is sure it is going to be a huge setback to their agenda. They will come to realise that they have overplayed their hands. Their agenda is to convert India into a Hindu Rashtra. If they had pushed this agenda along with some templates of development then probably the narrative would have been different. But now, you have on the one hand gross mismanagement of the economy, and staggering failure in managing foreign relations. Remember in 2014, for Modi's swearing in ceremony, the entire SAARC countries were invited and they all came. Today just see what is India's relationship with any of these countries. It is in very bad shape. Look at China. They are reported to be occupying almost about 4,000 square kms of Indian territory. Everyday they are changing the names of the villages in Arunachal Pradesh. And the Indian government is saying nothing about this. These things will not go unpunished. So, when these people take stock of things after the election, they will definitely regret the fact that they overplayed their hands.

In case, there is a reversal of what you have projected, which means the BJP winning the elections for a consecutive third term, what kind of an India will we have?

In the unlikely event of Modi retaining power, I am apprehensive that this probably will be the last election. We may see elections like those in Putin's Russia and the Chinese republic where 99 % of the people endorse the leadership. But, the free and fair multi-party elections will be unlikely in India. Secondly, we can forget about the constitution. Because it is the declared aim of the Sangh Parivar that this constitution should be buried. It is written in so many words in 'Bunch Of Thoughts' and other books. The third thing is that they would convert India into a Hindu Rashtra. They would start with saying that the communities other than the Hindus may continue to live here but they must accept the hegemony of the Hindus. And eventually that much grace will not be there. The minorities will be asked to leave the country. It will be a disaster. You will not be able to realise the India that will take shape, if this govt retains power. What is happening today in Manipur might happen in every state. The kind of dog whistles that you hear about love jihad, cow lynching, economic boycott, will not be confined to fringe elements. You are likely to hear those calls from the ramparts of the Red Fort. That is the danger we are staring at.

But I am an optimist. I hope that the people of India won't allow such a scenario. I think the BJP is in for a huge shock in this Lok Sabha election.