Some voters skip down-ballot elections entirely. Are they the key to victory in November?

TOP LINE

Getting Americans to vote is half the battle. The other half might be getting them to vote for every race on the ballot.

Sister District — a progressive organization focused on state legislatures — says Democrats are leaving votes on the table in key down-ballot races thanks to “roll-off.” That’s when a voter would vote for races at the top of the ballot — like president or Senate — but leave elections further down, like state legislature, blank. The group previously found that down-ballot Democratic candidates experienced roll-off at a much higher rate than Republicans.

Now Sister District says it has a better idea of which voters are skipping the bottom of their ballots. Compared to those who vote in every contest, roll-off voters are “more likely to be: women; those who identify with a racial/ethnic category other than white; under the age of 45; those without a college degree, and ideologically moderate,” according to new research shared first with Score. And while knowledge about state legislatures was low for both roll-off voters and those who finished their ballots, “roll-off voters are even less likely than down-ballot voters to correctly identify the role of state legislators.”

Roll-off matters significantly in state legislative races, said Gaby Goldstein, co-founder and senior vice president of strategic initiatives of Sister District, because margins in some races are incredibly small. She pointed to the infamous incident in Virginia after the 2017 election where the winner of a state House race — and control of the legislative chamber — came down to a name being pulled out of a ceremonial bowl because the two candidates were exactly tied.

“When you’re working at margins this small, the theory of the case that began to develop was if we could just encourage a few voters who are already voting at the top of the ballot for Democrats to vote down the ticket, we could really make big gains all over the board,” she said.

One of the biggest takeaways for why voters roll off was their attitude about down-ballot races. In a survey conducted for Sister District by Data for Progress, nearly 80 percent of roll-off voters said they felt they didn’t know enough to decide between legislative candidates. And a majority of roll-off voters agreed that their vote in legislative races didn’t matter, compared to just 25 percent of voters who said they regularly did vote through their whole ballot.

Goldstein said Sister District’s goal with the research — which it is pitching in a briefing later on Monday — was to get liberal groups to recognize a potentially untapped pool of voters for down-ticket races that would otherwise be overlooked because they’re already casting a ballot. The group is now testing messages to try to convince roll-off voters to finish their ballots, with hopes of deploying campaigns before November that will make Democratic voters “feel more confident in their ability to vote down ballot,” Goldstein said.

“There’s a lot of talk about persuasion, right? she added. “And there’s also another avenue that I don’t think has been adequately explored, which is persuading people who are already out to vote, to vote their whole ticket.”

Good Monday morning! Your old friend Zach ([email protected]; @ZachMontellaro) here. Madison will be back on Wednesday, you can reach her at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 1

Days until the Indiana primaries: 15

Days until the North Carolina runoffs and Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 22

Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 29

Days until the Texas runoffs: 36

Days until the Republican National Convention: 84

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 119

Days until the 2024 election: 197

THE CASH DASH

SHOW ME THE MONEY — Presidential hopefuls and some super PACs opened up their books up on Saturday, giving us a peek into their finances for March. Some big takeaways from POLITICO’s Jessica Piper and Steven Shepard: “Donald Trump is spending as much on legal bills as he is on campaigning. Joe Biden, meanwhile, is building a reelection behemoth. … A PAC controlled by Trump spent almost as much on legal bills as his campaign did on anything else — and Biden’s campaign outspent Trump’s by nearly eight-to-one.”

Some deeper dives on each of the candidates:

— Jessica on Trump’s spending (particularly Save America, the leadership PAC that has been footing the bill for Trump’s legal peril): “Save America, Trump’s leadership PAC, has now spent $59.5 million on legal consulting since the start of 2023. … [It] was able to stay in the black in March due to another $5 million refund in March from Make America Great Again Inc., the Trump-backing super PAC. … Now, MAGA Inc. can only send $2.75 million more back to Save America, raising questions about whether Save America will continue to be the vehicle to fund legal bills in several cases linked to Trump.”

— Brittany Gibson and Jessica on how independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is staying afloat: Kennedy’s “wealthy but relatively obscure running mate, Nicole Shanahan, contributed $2 million to their long shot White House bid in March, preventing the campaign from running into the red for the second month in a row.”

— Jessica and yours truly on Biden’s big lead, from earlier in the week: “Biden’s campaign spent $29.2 million in March alone, according to campaign finance records filed late Monday night. That’s more than four times the amount he spent in the previous month, when he dropped about $6.3 million.” (Biden filed early, getting a head start on the weekend deadline.)

PARTY TIME — Here’s the roundup for the party committees’ financials for March.

— NRSC: The NRSC raised $18.3 million, spent $6.6 million and had $36.5 million in the bank.

— DSCC: The DSCC raised $13.5 million, spent $4.4 million and had $41 million in the bank.

— NRCC: The NRCC raised $16.2 million, spent $5.5 million and had $55.9 million in the bank.

— DCCC: The DCCC raised $21.4 million, spent $9.4 million and had $71.2 million in the bank.

— RNC: The RNC raised $20.6 million, spent $10.3 million and had $21.6 million in the bank.

— DNC: The DNC raised $34.6 million, spent $15.9 million and had $45.2 million in the bank.

Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

CONVENTION CHAOS — The Washington state Republican Party endorsed Semi Bird’s bid for governor at a party convention over the weekend, backing him over former Rep. Dave Reichert for the open seat. The Seattle Times’ Jim Brunner reports that the convention was a “parade of pro-Trump delegates and candidates” who rallied behind Bird, a one-time local school board member who was recalled. Reichert withdrew himself from consideration for the party’s endorsement on Friday, saying the state party is “in such disarray,” and his gubernatorial bid continues. State Attorney General Bob Ferguson is the Democratic frontrunner — but should Ferguson and Reichert advance to the general election out of the August all-party primary, both Democrats and Republicans believe the race could be competitive in November.

HOME SWEET HOME — Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick, the party’s presumptive Senate nominee, has an origin story where he has suggested he grew up on a family farm. But The New York Times’ Katie Glueck reports “that he has given a misleading impression about key aspects of his background” about where he grew up. McCormick, who sought to prebutt the story on social media, said in a statement to The Times that the paper’s reporting was “hair-splitting, frivolous, cherry-picked distortions of what I have always said.”

ALL THE WORLD’S A STAGE — Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks met for the first — and potentially only — televised Democratic Senate primary debate in Maryland on Friday. The two “have virtually identical positions on major policy issues,” The Baltimore Banner’s Pamela Wood writes, and the “contrasts on stage were focused more on personal and political differences.”

SAFE SEAT SCRAMBLE — Republicans are already jockeying to replace the retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner in KS-02, a safe red district. State House Majority Leader Chris Croft and state Sen. Caryn Tyson both said they were looking at runs, per the Topeka Capital-Journal’s Jason Alatidd. A list of other candidates are name dropped as well. One person not interested? State Attorney General Kris Kobach, whose spokesperson said he had no interest in the office.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee for that open seat race, is weighing in on the race to be his running-mate (and successor). Robinson told supporters that he is voting for Hal Weatherman in the primary runoff for lieutenant governor on May 14, WNCN’s Michael Hyland reports. Weatherman, a longtime GOP aide, is facing Forsyth County District Attorney Jim O’Neill.

— House Democrats’ old guard is jumping into the busy primary in the blue MD-03. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Jim Clyburn, the former number three in chamber leadership, both endorsed former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn.

— Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) is endorsing a primary challenger to his first-term colleague, Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.). Horsford, the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, and Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), the immediate past chair of the CBC, backed former state Sen. Adam Hollier, The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke reported.

Presidential Big Board

TRUMP ON TRIAL — Jury selection in Trump’s criminal hush money trial was completed on Friday, with all 12 jurors — and six alternates — seated. Open statements are set to kick off on Monday morning. Check out POLITICO’s liveblog for a recap of Friday and you can follow along with today’s liveblog.

… Some *ahem* stormy weather canceled a rally the former president had scheduled for Saturday, POLITICO’s Natalie Allison reports from Wilmington, North Carolina. Before it was canceled, the rally was “surrounded by a parking lot full of bedazzled Trump memorabilia for sale, a sea of American, Gadsden, Confederate battle and ‘Trump Won’ flags, uniformed members of the Proud Boys and red caps in every direction.”

LONG TAIL OF 2020 — Trump’s political operation will deploy “more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers across battleground states to monitor — and potentially challenge — vote counting in November,” POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt writes.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN — Biden’s Tuesday event in Florida will be focused on “denouncing the state’s new six-week abortion ban and other efforts to restrict abortion access across the country,” NBC News’ Yamiche Alcindor reported.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — A group of environmental organizations publicly disavowed Kennedy’s independent bid, calling the “former green group leader a ‘dangerous conspiracy theorist and science denier,’” POLITICO’s Zack Colman reported.

… Hawaii election officials rejected a challenge from state Democrats looking to have Kennedy booted from the ballot there, per POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson.

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — National: A new NBC News poll has a tight election nationally. In a head-to-head, Trump is at 46 percent and Biden is at 44 percent. But when Kennedy, independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein are also named, Biden is at 39 percent, Trump is at 37 percent and Kennedy is at 13 percent (1,000 registered voters; April 12-16; MoE +/- 3.1 percentage points).

ON THE AIRWAVES

MD-Sen — Trone has a new ad featuring a Baltimore longshoreman praising him for calling for the collapsed Baltimore bridge to be built with union labor.

CA-20 — State Assemblymember Vince Fong, a Republican, is out with a spot emphasizing his experience ahead of the May 21 special election.

IA-04 — GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra has a new ad with a mother thanking Feenstra for writing “Sarah’s Law,” which requires officials to hold undocumented immigrants accused of certain violent crimes. Feenstra faces a primary challenge.

IN-03 — America Leads Action, a group backed by prominent GOP donors, is attacking former GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman over voting for salary increases for lawmakers.

IN-05 — Republican state Rep. Chuck Goodrich has a new ad saying GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz “stood with the Squad.” It also accuses Spartz, a Ukrainian-American, of not “put[ting] America first.”

NC-13 — Republican Brad Knott has a new spot calling his runoff opponent Kelly Daughtry a fake conservative. The runoff is on May 14.

… Daughtry is out with a spot saying she is “ready to back up President Trump” on the border. (Trump has endorsed Knott.)

… The Conservative Voters Alliance, a super PAC funded largely by Daughtry’s father, has an ad knocking Knott for working for the Department of Justice “even as they went after Jan. 6 protesters.” A second ad accuses Knott of being “not serious about election integrity.”

… American Foundations Committee, which has received significant support from Knott’s family, is out with an ad highlighting Trump’s endorsement of Knott (and his criticism of Daughtry).

VA-05 — Protect Freedom PAC, a super PAC affiliated with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), has an ad with the Kentuckian touting incumbent GOP Rep. Bob Good, who faces a primary challenge.VA-07 — Protect Freedom PAC also has a spot with Paul backing Republican Cameron Hamilton in the battleground district.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I pick and choose my battles. And I’m willing to take a punch for the long haul. I didn’t write a book. Could have. I didn’t.” — Reince Priebus to The Wall Street Journal on how he has survived so long in Trump’s orbit.