Ukraine aid debate is over — for now

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Many lawmakers and officials in Washington breathed a collective sigh of relief when President JOE BIDEN signed off on the long-stalled foreign aid bill today — but don’t expect this to be the last battle over U.S. support for Ukraine.

During a trip to Kyiv this week, Rep. BILL KEATING (D-Mass.) and a handful of other lawmakers spent hours speaking with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV about Ukraine’s future on the battlefield. NatSec Daily asked Keating whether the latest package would be the last major support the U.S. sends to Ukraine during its war with Russia.

He dodged, saying the question was complex.

“More and more they’re going to take care of their own business,” said Keating, a member of the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committee, noting that he expects private U.S. companies to increasingly invest in Ukraine in the near future. As Ukraine’s economy grows, “we won’t have to do as much.”

It’s unclear whether the new package will lead to a long-term solution: “It’s going to take some time for us to dig out of the hole that was created by six months of delay,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters this afternoon. “It is certainly possible that Russia could make additional tactical gains in the coming weeks.”

Experts say Moscow’s military has learned to be more effective since the war began, focusing on smaller tactical gains that aim to exhaust Ukrainian troops. What’s more, Ukraine is likely to be outgunned by Russia throughout 2024.

Five congressional staffers told NatSec Daily that they think more U.S. assistance will have to be sent to Ukraine down the road. “Hard yes,” one House aide said. The staffers were granted anonymity since they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Another House aide agreed, but explained that “the investment, even if it’s long term, pales in comparison to what we would have to spend in both dollars and lives if we allowed Russia to win.”

A Senate aide also said Ukraine will need more U.S. assistance, but “not sure I see them getting anything” else from Congress before the November election. Sullivan said the package should last through the end of the year.

Speaking to reporters today, Biden applauded the bill’s passage, saying that it reaffirms America’s support of Ukraine. The U.S. will begin sending the first shipment of equipment, including air defense munitions, artillery, rocket systems and armored vehicles, in “a few hours,” he said.

The White House has been trying to help Ukraine turn the tide: Last month, the administration secretly sent long-range missiles to Ukraine for the first time in the war — and Kyiv has already used them twice to strike far behind Russian lines, our own ALEX WARD and LARA SELIGMAN scoop.

Ukraine isn’t in a position to make significant headway in its fight against Russia in the short-term, and Kyiv will likely re-up its pleas for more aid eventually. Asked if Ukraine should be concerned about future skirmishes over assistance in Congress, Sullivan attempted to ease worries.

“The United States is going to be there with the resources necessary for Ukraine. I believe that today, I believe that one year ago and I believe that will be true one year from now,” he said.

Read: Biden admin isn’t fully convinced Ukraine can win, even with new aid by Alex

The Inbox

HEZBOLLAH HIT HARD: Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT said today that Israel has killed half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon as Israel continues to carry out large strikes against the militant group from its northern border.

“The other half hide and abandon south Lebanon,” Gallant said, per The Times of Israel’s EMANUEL FABIAN. The assessment came as the Israel Defense Forces said it had struck 40 Hezbollah sites in the town of Ayta ash-Shab with fighter jets and artillery shelling.

Targets included weapons depots and other Hezbollah assets, the military said, adding that it was intended to “destroy the organization’s infrastructure in the border area,” and wasn’t in response to a specific attack. Hours before, Hezbollah launched several anti-tank guided missiles at a northern community in Israel.

ISRAEL’S CONDUCT: Credible reports show Israeli forces breached humanitarian law, disregarded civilian lives and restricted humanitarian aid during its war in Gaza, according to an expert analysis first obtained by our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!).

The report was compiled by the Independent Task Force on the Application of National Security Memorandum-20 to Israel, which includes law experts and former State Department officials. The task force reviewed thousands of reports and pointed out a dozen cases in which Israeli forces allegedly breached humanitarian and international law and five incidents in which they allegedly broke with best practices and killed civilians. The task force also called out Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s pronouncement on Oct. 9 that Israel would cut off aid to Gaza.

Washington gives $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel. But some lawmakers critical of Israel’s post-Oct. 7 operations have been pressing the administration to cut off U.S. arms sales or place conditions on them. They’re likely to seize on the 76-page report, even though it doesn’t offer an opinion on whether to halt U.S. weapons transfers.

OIL DEPOTS DOWN: Ukrainian drones destroyed two fuel storages in Russia’s Smolensk region this morning, a Ukrainian law enforcement official familiar with the matter told our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA.

The attacks came despite warnings from U.S. officials that Kyiv’s attacks on Russian oil refineries risk destabilizing global markets, with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN urging the country to focus on military targets.

“These objects are and will remain our legitimate targets,” the Ukrainian official said.

RUSSIA VETOES SPACE TREATY RESOLUTION: Russia vetoed a resolution introduced by the U.S. and Japan aimed at nuclear nonproliferation in space Wednesday afternoon. Russia was the only country voting against the resolution, with China abstaining, our own MONA ZHANG writes in.

Before the vote, Russia and China introduced an amendment expanding the resolution to include all weapons and not just nuclear weapons. That amendment failed in a 7-7 vote, with one abstention. Russia’s U.N. envoy VASILY NEBENZYA accused the U.S. and Japan of “cherry-picking WMDs” out of other types of weapons.

After the vote, Japan’s ambassador to the U.N. YAMAZAKI KAZUYUKI described Russia and China’s amendment as an attempt to divide the council after efforts to reach a consensus with the draft resolution. International concern was raised following reports that Russia was developing an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space.

“Our goal is to dissuade Russia from launching this weapon into space,” senior administration officials told reporters this week. “We’re pretty limited in what we can say about the specific nature of the threat. But we can say that this is related to a new satellite carrying a nuclear device that Russia is developing.”

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ELECTION 2024

EUROPE’S TRUMP PROBLEM: The return of DONALD TRUMP to the White House could fracture an already divided Europe, amplifying disagreements over how to approach the war in Ukraine, the transatlantic alliance and the threats posed by Russia and China, our colleagues report.

As they write, “While it was possible to dismiss Trump’s first term as an aberration — a geopolitical squall that could be weathered — his return would cement the shift in American foreign policy as a fact that can no longer be ignored.” That reality would force the Europeans to develop a common response and commit to it.

“When it comes to the EU’s sense of urgency on issues such as competitiveness or defense, Trump could be … a wake-up call to set things in motion,” Belgian Finance Minister VINCENT VAN PETEGHEM told our colleagues. “If he were elected, it would trigger a lot.”

Keystrokes

WHAT’S NEXT FOR TIKTOK: Biden also signed into law today a bill that would require Bytedance, TikTok’s Chinese owner, to sell the company or risk a ban on U.S. app stores. But that’s not the end of the story for the embattled social media company.

As our own REBECCA KERN writes, TikTok has vowed to challenge the law in court, arguing the law violates the First Amendment rights of its users and that the app does not constitute a security threat to the United States. Courts have previously blocked efforts to ban the popular social media platform, including a Trump administration executive order in 2020. The administration, though, maintains the law as signed is constitutionally airproof.

The Biden re-election campaign, though, says it will maintain its TikTok account after the president signed the law even in the face of national security concerns with the app. A campaign advisor told Rebecca they use “enhanced security measures” to mitigate the app’s risks and say it will continue to be a part of the campaign’s strategy to reach young voters.

Read: Europe shrugs off Washington’s TikTok fears our own CLOTHILDE GOUJARD

The Complex

UP THE ANTE: U.K. Defense Secretary GRANT SHAPPS wants NATO to increase its defense spending target for member countries to 2.5 percent of GDP: “We think in a more dangerous world that would make sense,” Shapps told Sky News.

NATO countries are currently expected to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense, with 18 members currently on track to do so. British ministers are already pushing for every NATO country to adopt the 2.5 percent target ahead of the alliance’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington this summer, our own STEFAN BOSCIA reports.

YOU WIN SOME, YOU LOSE SOME: Our own LEE HUDSON kept an eye on earnings calls (for Pros!) for General Dynamics and Boeing today, and here’s the low down: General Dynamics had a good day, while Boeing did not.

On a call today, General Dynamics executives said the $95 billion aid package will “stabilize the industrial base.” In particular, CEO PHEBE NOVAKOVIC said the company would receive funding for ammunition and to help submarine suppliers. The company, which has struggled to get Virginia-class attack submarine and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine manufacturing back on schedule, says the spending will help ease its supply chain woes.

On a Boeing call today, the company reported some big losses. CFO BRIAN WEST said the company saw an 8 percent increase in revenue in the first quarter of 2024, but had a $222 million loss on the KC-46A aerial refueler and T-7A trainer, adding to billions the company has lost on fixed-price development programs. The company, which is facing scrutiny from regulators over problems with its commercial airliner division, also said it lost $128 million on the KC-46 tanker and $94 million on the T-7A trainer.

Read: Union blasts Biden administration’s plan to outsource ship maintenance overseas by our own JOE GOULD, Lee and CONNOR O’BRIEN (for Pros!)

On the Hill

MORE AFGHANISTAN DOCUMENTS: The House Foreign Affairs Committee released another tranche of interviews from its investigation into the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan today, focusing on high-level State Department officials including then-spokesperson NED PRICE, then-acting Undersecretary for Management CAROL PEREZ and Chief of Staff SUZY GEORGE.

A GREEN NEW NDAA: Climate hawks on Capitol Hill are pushing for this year’s defense bill to include new climate resilience and energy efficiency provisions, E&E News’ ANDRES PICON reports (for Pros!).

In a letter to the House Armed Services Committee, the 96 members of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition called for the National Defense Authorization Act to implement policies that would get ahead of the risks posed by natural disasters, reduce emissions and promote the use of clean and renewable energy. Climate change, they warned, is already affecting Defense Department operations.

Broadsides

HAITI’S TRANSITION WOES: Haiti’s incoming transitional government is struggling to institute itself as gang violence continues to plague the Caribbean country’s capital city, according to Reuters’ STEVEN ARISTIL and HAROLD ISAAC.

Meanwhile, U.S. military planes, along with U.S. deportation flights, have begun to make their way to Port-au-Prince, according to The Miami Herald’s JACQUELINE CHARLES. The Pentagon told the Herald that the flights, which come weeks after the White House announced a $10 million transfer of weapons and ammunition to the Haitian National Police, are intended to provide replenishments to the U.S. embassy.

GAZA MASS GRAVES: The United Nations is calling for an investigation “a clear, transparent and credible investigation” into mass graves found at the Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals in Gaza, The Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER reported late Tuesday.

The U.N. rebuke comes days after hundreds of bodies were found in a temporary burial ground inside the main hospital in Khan Younis. The burial ground was built as the Israel Defense Forces besieged the hospital and both sides dispute the origins of the graves.

Israel’s military said it exhumed bodies in search of the remains of missing hostages, but maintains that the bodies were handled “respectfully.” Palestinian authorities have said some of the bodies were of people killed during the hospital siege, while others were killed when Israeli forces raided the hospital.

TRANSITIONS

— U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues DAVID SATTERFIELD will be replaced by U.S. Institute of Peace President LISE GRANDE, HuffPost’s AKBAR SHAHID AHMED scooped.

— PATRICK GALLAGHER is now a director at Valcour LLC. He previously was a grants manager at the Middle East Institute and a public diplomacy officer at the Qatari Embassy.

— MICHAEL BOYCE has joined the Department of Homeland Security as director of the AI Corps. He was previously at the Office of Management and Budget, where he helped craft AI policy.

What to Read

— JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Uncle Sam finally coughs up weapons — but is it too late to save Ukraine from Putin?

— Rep. BRIAN MAST, Newsweek: Here’s why I voted against more Ukraine aid

— MAHA YAHYA, Foreign Affairs: Israel’s next front?

Tomorrow Today

— RAND Corporation and the Polish Institute of International Affairs, 9 a.m.: Long war in Europe: options for the United States, Poland, and allies for 2024 and beyond

— Arab Center Washington D.C. and American University’s School of International Service, 10 a.m.: Libya’s frozen conflict and potential ways forward

— Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 10 a.m.: Possibilities and pitfalls in the U.S.-Kazakhstan relationship

— Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: A book discussion on MICHAEL SOBOLIK’s “Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance”

— Foundation for Middle East Peace, 12 p.m.: Dead, disabled, displaced, detained, orphaned: the toll of Israel’s war on Palestinian children

— Defense One, 2 p.m.: How the Marines are preparing for future conflicts and contingencies in the Pacific

— Common Good, 3 p.m.: Concerns about Gaza & Israeli leadership

— Atlantic Council empowerME Initiative’s Win Fellowship, 3:30 p.m.: Arab women ambassadors shaping diplomacy: challenges and opportunities

— American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 4 p.m.: A film screening and discussion on “Before Bucha Was Abkhazia,” a documentary tracking “Russian war crimes in Georgia.”

— United States Institute of Peace, 4:30 p.m.: Navigating humanitarian assistance in Gaza

Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, whose debates with us are never-ending.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is always right.