Twins Beginning to Accumulate Value from the José Berríos Trade

bean5302 · April 19

Martin is hitting .242/.306/.333, .669 OPS, wRC+ 90, pretty much right in line with projection systems. There is little real value in a hitting line which would be a liability for a starter. A backup/utility type role is fine, but those roles don't provide much value.

Woods-Richardson has a history of getting results for a few games before batters tee off on him because he's been unable to keep his velocity consistent. I think he'll find his way into the rotation sooner than later out of necessity. He's in his 7th year at this point. It's a long, long time to struggle with the things Woods-Richardson has struggled with before suddenly putting it together.

gunnarthor · April 19

The Twins got good value for Berrios and the trade - without further viewing - was good. However, the only reason we were able to trade Berrios was because the FO completely failed to keep the window of contention open. We should have been competitive in 2021, instead we were horrible.

Riverbrian · April 19

Buyers buy and Sellers Sell. Anything else is standing still.

The Twins were 43-61 at the time of the trade.

They received the 2nd and 4th ranked prospects in the Jays system in the deal.

It's a deal that you make... Once it's made... it is up to the Twins to develop Martin and Woods-Richardson to make the trade work out in your favor.

Jury is still out. But it's a deal that you make when you are 43-61 on July 30.

roger · April 19

Regarding your comment, Cody, about the next time the Twins have a need in the rotation. Isn't the next time now?

Really never was too excited about Martin. That is until I watched him play the last week or so. I like this kid, alot. Also think there is a good chance he can be a valuable member of this club as he is the only guy who almost always has a competitive at bat.

bighat · April 19

Meanwhile Berrios is leading the AL in virtually every pitching statistic so far this year. He's 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, absolutely dominating out there.

I say the Twins should let Martin and Woods-Richardson play as much as possible this year. It's a lost year and developing those two, plus Lee and maybe a couple other rookies will greatly help this team in 2025.

The return value for Berrios is nothing unless you let these guys play.

farmerguychris · April 19

6 minutes ago, bighat said:

Meanwhile Berrios is leading the AL in virtually every pitching statistic so far this year. He's 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, absolutely dominating out there.

I say the Twins should let Martin and Woods-Richardson play as much as possible this year. It's a lost year and developing those two, plus Lee and maybe a couple other rookies will greatly help this team in 2025.

The return value for Berrios is nothing unless you let these guys play.

I'm not going to agree with you that 20 games into a season that its a lost year - but I agree that we should let these 2 guys be playing as much as possible. They are at least as good as the guys we signed in the offseason this year. Let Martin take the role of Margot, and find a spot for Woods-Richardson someplace either as a starter, or in the pen.

LambchoP · April 19

I also think these guys need to be playing everyday either at MLB or milb level. Have Martin starting, and have Margot be his backup rather than the other way around. Then I'd give Varland maybe three more starts. If he doesn't show anything by then, move him to the pen, where he could be a solid weapon throwing 100,mph, and stick SWR in as starter number 5.

LA VIkes Fan · April 19

I think this is the year that we find out what value we got in that trade. SWR will be in the rotation on a regular basis probably within the next month. Maybe sooner than that because Varland is really only one more bad start away from the bullpen or a reset in AAA and Paddack isn't far behind. Frankly, I would put Varland in the bullpen now given that his starts have really not been competitive and his performance in the bullpen last year was impressive. SWR is a logical and perhaps only replacement. If he stays away from injury, I expect him to get at least 10 – 15 MLB starts this year, maybe as many as 20.

Martin's moment is now. He's effectively been starting for the last 10 days and I think will continue to start in LF until . . . actually, there is no "until" on the horizon. Kepler takes over RF when he returns and Martin's only competition for LF is Margot, Larnach, and Castro. Could one of them all of a sudden get hot and force their way into the lineup? Sure, but it doesn't seem very likely given what we've seen so far over the last couple years, not just this season. If Larnach is the one who gets hot, he can always be the DH and play in LF occasionally. Castro's a utility guy who has never hit well enough to be a starter and Margot is 4th outfielder in every sense of the word. Wallner may be back this year but it's going to be at least mid June or July before he gets another shot, and that's only if he tears up AAA.

I'm an optimist. I think SWR will get 15 – 20 starts this year, win 8 to 12 games, and have an ERA under 4.25 with a WHIP under 1.5. Classic mid to back rotation performance with the very real possibility of him improving over time to be a solid or better #3 starter. I think Martin is going to settle in with something like .265/.340/.400 slash line, steal 10 – 20 bases, and play above average 0F defense, also with the possibility of improvement over the next couple years. Perhaps not a stellar return for year and 1/2 of Berrios, but certainly a solid one.

DJL44 · April 19

Not mentioned in the article:

Toronto gained the ability to negotiate with Berrios and sign him to a long-term contract.

Minnesota lost the ability to offer Berrios a qualifying offer and recoup a 1st round pick.

DJL44 · April 19

Among pitchers age 30 and younger Berrios is one of the top 10 career performers.

Pitcher WAR

Alcantara 20.3

Fried 19.2

Gallen 17.7

Bieber 17.6

Marquez 15.9

Ohtani 15.1

Webb 14.8

Berrios 14.4

Burnes 14.3

Buehler 13.5

Doctor Gast · April 19

I'm a Berrios fan, I enjoy very much watching him pitch & his work ethic. But I've also very quickly become a Martin & SWR fan being impressed by their character. Martin is a quality contact hitter together with his fire & baserunning talents will become a very valuable lead-off hitter. His defense is quality & he learns very quickly. He can easily be a starting LFer but his versatility is even more valuable to the team. IMO Martin will also develop power in his own time & way.

For me it's hard to figure SWR's ceiling but I have no doubt that he'll become a successful MLB SP. IMO we won the trade by giving up 1 1/2 years (2 1/2 if count a QO or a draft compensation) for potentially 12+ quality years from both Martin & SWR.

D.C Twins · April 19

Let's pump the breaks on this a bit.

I'm very happy that Martin and SWR are being given a chance so that we can find out what we have..... but we are about a season of MLB caliber play away from knowing that we got any value....

LA VIkes Fan · April 19

5 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Let's pump the breaks on this a bit.

I'm very happy that Martin and SWR are being given a chance so that we can find out what we have..... but we are about a season of MLB caliber play away from knowing that we got any value....

Agreed, and as I posted above, this is the year to find out. Give Martin 350 plus ABs and give SWR a minimum of 10-15 starts. There's plenty of room for both to happen with this roster.

Bigfork Twins Guy · April 19

I think that this will turn out to be a fair trade for both teams. I really like Martin and SWR but I will say that it sure would be nice to have JB in the rotation this year. He'd be a great #2 for the playoffs also.

The icing on the cake though is that we can say that we have a "Lewis and Martin" combo. Now, if only their names were Jerry and Dean 🤪

Karbo · April 19

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think this is the year that we find out what value we got in that trade. SWR will be in the rotation on a regular basis probably within the next month. Maybe sooner than that because Varland is really only one more bad start away from the bullpen or a reset in AAA and Paddack isn't far behind. Frankly, I would put Varland in the bullpen now given that his starts have really not been competitive and his performance in the bullpen last year was impressive. SWR is a logical and perhaps only replacement. If he stays away from injury, I expect him to get at least 10 – 15 MLB starts this year, maybe as many as 20.

Martin's moment is now. He's effectively been starting for the last 10 days and I think will continue to start in LF until . . . actually, there is no "until" on the horizon. Kepler takes over RF when he returns and Martin's only competition for LF is Margot, Larnach, and Castro. Could one of them all of a sudden get hot and force their way into the lineup? Sure, but it doesn't seem very likely given what we've seen so far over the last couple years, not just this season. If Larnach is the one who gets hot, he can always be the DH and play in LF occasionally. Castro's a utility guy who has never hit well enough to be a starter and Margot is 4th outfielder in every sense of the word. Wallner may be back this year but it's going to be at least mid June or July before he gets another shot, and that's only if he tears up AAA.

I'm an optimist. I think SWR will get 15 – 20 starts this year, win 8 to 12 games, and have an ERA under 4.25 with a WHIP under 1.5. Classic mid to back rotation performance with the very real possibility of him improving over time to be a solid or better #3 starter. I think Martin is going to settle in with something like .265/.340/.400 slash line, steal 10 – 20 bases, and play above average 0F defense, also with the possibility of improvement over the next couple years. Perhaps not a stellar return for year and 1/2 of Berrios, but certainly a solid one.

You forgot about AK in left, as this management team is too stubborn to sit Santana against RH pitchers.

RpR · April 19

I will wait till next year before I give Martin Miracle Worker status.

Cave, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner all came up and had one year -- the next great Twin -- years, but then came hit-miss seasons.

I do like Martin taking a less from Lewis with the Alice Cooper face paint -- oddly appealing.

LewFordLives · April 19

Always good insight from Cody Christie, but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid on this one. It was a dumb trade at the time, and it's only gotten worse in hindsight.

1. Berrios still had another year of team control. Did the Twins learn nothing from the Johan Santana trade? If you have good young pitching you cling to it. The ding against Martin, right or wrong, is that he has a limited ceiling. SWR was and still is a project. We had to give up a batting champion with three years of team control to get Pablo Lopez. Berrios should have fetched a similar return. (If they had signed Berrios they wouldn't have had to make that trade in the first place.)

2. The narrative being pitched by the media was that Berrios was hellbent on testing the free agent market and wouldn't sign with the Twins. Yet after the trade, what happens.....he signs a long term deal with Jays, under terms that would not have broken the bank for the Twins.

As you can guess, anytime this trade is discussed it gets my blood up.

bean5302 · April 19

I've never subscribed to the theory of the frozen in time trade value. While Martin and Woods-Richardson were considered an pretty massive overpay by the Blue Jays at the time, all that matters is what actually happened.

1. Austin Martin immediately tanked in prospect value.
2021 - Trade deadline +42.6
2021 - Season end +30.8
2022 - Trade deadline +11.0
2023 - Trade deadline +3.7
Current +4.2 (less than Manuel Margot's 5.5)
2. Simeon Woods-Richardson immediately tanked in prospect value.
2021 - Trade deadline +22.3
2021 - Season end +9.6
2022 - Trade deadline +5.4
2023 - Trade deadline +2.1
Current +1.7 (less than Brent Headrick's 2.1)

The Twins needed to get value for Berrios. Instead, they whiffed (so far). A non-rental, low cost, mid/front rotation arm is worth a fortune. Especially if it was the first legitimate playoff starter caliber arm the franchise had developed in a decade.

I liked the trade right from the start, and it was considered so lopsided in favor of the Twins that Baseballtradevalues.com wouldn't even accept the proposal without the Twins adding $20MM in cash at the time. Regardless of what was supposed to happen according to Baseballtradevalues or analysts, the front office needs to be held accountable for what actually DID happen. The front office gets paid for on the field results, not the computer simulation, and the front office needs to be smarter than internet fans.

DJL44 · April 19

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

the front office needs to be held accountable for what actually DID happen

Conversely, then they should get credit for what actually DID happen. Berrios was awful the next year, tanking his trade value at the next season's deadline and making it unlikely the Twins would tender a qualifying offer. Toronto is only getting any value back from that trade because they were able to negotiate an extension. If Berrios had gone to free agency the Twins would have been the clear winners just by not having to pay for Berrios that following season.

mnfireman · April 19

8 hours ago, bighat said:

Meanwhile Berrios is leading the AL in virtually every pitching statistic so far this year. He's 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, absolutely dominating out there.

True and I wish him continued success, but we have seen Berrios dominate like this over 4 or 5 starts in the past, only to string together 4 or 5 absolutely horrible starts. He will probably end up around his career averages of 14-10 W/L, 4.08 ERA.

h2oface · April 20

9 hours ago, bighat said:

Meanwhile Berrios is leading the AL in virtually every pitching statistic so far this year. He's 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, absolutely dominating out there.

Yes! Jose away!

To pretend that the years we could have had don’t count in assessing comparative value just because the FO failed in the mission to extend him is intellectually irresponsible, IMO. It only came down to money, just like Pressly. It is value lost.

Plus, the trade was to replace Berrios with high quality starter, and to fleece Toronto with a great hitter that was a shortstop. AND sooner than later. It is already later. Way later.

h2oface · April 20

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Conversely, then they should get credit for what actually DID happen. Berrios was awful the next year, tanking his trade value at the next season's deadline and making it unlikely the Twins would tender a qualifying offer. Toronto is only getting any value back from that trade because they were able to negotiate an extension. If Berrios had gone to free agency the Twins would have been the clear winners just by not having to pay for Berrios that following season.

Personally, I would rather live through a bad season by a hard working home grown favorite than cast him out as garbage for a stranger for a year or two like a Mahle etc. I like guys on my favorite team that aren’t just visitors for a year or two or less.

David HK · April 20

When, exactly? 🤔

DJL44 · April 20

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Personally, I would rather live through a bad season by a hard working home grown favorite than cast him out as garbage for a stranger for a year or two like a Mahle etc. I like guys on my favorite team that aren’t just visitors for a year or two or less.

Would you really have given Berrios a huge contract extension after his -0.6 WAR 2022 when he led the league in both hits and earned runs allowed?

DJL44 · April 20

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

He will probably end up around his career averages of 14-10 W/L, 4.08 ERA.

His FIP is 3.63, so you're probably right.

The Mad King · April 20

I'm a bit old school. I can't cut off Berrios' value at the end of his contract. He could have been re-signed so it'll take longer to evaluate this deal in my eyes. But I'm glad we're finally getting a glimpse at our return.

Linus · April 20

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Conversely, then they should get credit for what actually DID happen. Berrios was awful the next year, tanking his trade value at the next season's deadline and making it unlikely the Twins would tender a qualifying offer. Toronto is only getting any value back from that trade because they were able to negotiate an extension. If Berrios had gone to free agency the Twins would have been the clear winners just by not having to pay for Berrios that following season.

You are correct in that he had a down year in the final year of his contract. However there is no universe in which he would not have been extended a qualifying offer. So they could have had an extra year and a half of Berríos and a supplemental pick.

h2oface · April 20

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Would you really have given Berrios a huge contract extension after his -0.6 WAR 2022 when he led the league in both hits and earned runs allowed?

Analytics be damned. They should have extended him and got it done in 2020. How are all the analytics working for the whole team this year. Loving that 6-12. Homegrown still means something in my book. This ain’t fantasy baseball. Plus, it is not a given that his 2022 would have been the same in Minnesota. I just like Berrios. His dedication to being the best he can be. His process.

Otaknam · April 20

22 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I'm not going to agree with you that 20 games into a season that its a lost year - but I agree that we should let these 2 guys be playing as much as possible. They are at least as good as the guys we signed in the offseason this year. Let Martin take the role of Margot, and find a spot for Woods-Richardson someplace either as a starter, or in the pen.

10 hours ago, h2oface said:

Analytics be damned. They should have extended him and got it done in 2020. How are all the analytics working for the whole team this year. Loving that 6-12. Homegrown still means something in my book. This ain’t fantasy baseball. Plus, it is not a given that his 2022 would have been the same in Minnesota. I just like Berrios. His dedication to being the best he can be. His process.

Despite his up and down career so far, there is no reason to move SWR to the bullpen just to get him to the big leagues. If his starts go off the rails this year then make the bullpen move.

Major League Ready · April 20

13 hours ago, h2oface said:

Yes! Jose away!

To pretend that the years we could have had don’t count in assessing comparative value just because the FO failed in the mission to extend him is intellectually irresponsible, IMO. It only came down to money, just like Pressly. It is value lost.

Plus, the trade was to replace Berrios with high quality starter, and to fleece Toronto with a great hitter that was a shortstop. AND sooner than later. It is already later. Way later.

I would not emulate Toronto. There have been 164 ninety-two win seasons in MLB since the turn of the century. Toronto has had 2 or them and they have not had a 94+ win season since 1993.

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