Playbook: The Biden polling bump persists

Presented by the Financial Services Forum

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

TOP-ED — Former VP MIKE PENCE in the NYT: “Donald Trump Has Betrayed the Pro-Life Movement”

NEW POLL — Encouraging signs for President JOE BIDEN in a new NBC News poll:

  • Head to head, it’s a two-point race between Biden and DONALD TRUMP. Among registered voters, Trump leads 46% to 44%, with 10% undecided.
  • Including third-party candidates, Biden leads Trump, 39% to 37%, with ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. at 13%, JILL STEIN at 3% and CORNEL WEST at 2%.

Two pieces of conventional wisdom-piercing data:

1. RFK Jr.’s support draws more from Trump than Biden. Though the CW is that Kennedy is a bigger threat to Biden than to Trump, the numbers here tell a different story: 15% of Trump supporters and 7% of Biden supporters in the head-to-head matchup break for RFK Jr. when the field expands to include third-party candidates.

2. “Protecting democracy” is a salient issue for voters. There’s a difference between what voters identify as the “most important issue facing the country” (on that, “inflation and the cost of living” registers 23%, followed by immigration/the border, at 22%) and what they identify as the issue most important in determining their own vote (on that, “protecting democracy or constitutional rights” was on top with 28%, followed by immigration/the border at 20% and abortion at 19%). Full poll topline results

FOREIGN AID PACKAGE ADVANCES — It took months, but the House finally passed the behemoth $95 billion foreign aid package yesterday in a series of overwhelming votes. It’s headed to the Senate, where it’s likely to pass and head to Biden’s desk for signature.

The four components:

The result was possible thanks to something rarely seen in the House: Bipartisanship. Though you shouldn’t get used to it, cautions veteran NYT reporter Carl Hulse.

“The moments of bipartisan coming-together are hardly a template for a new paradigm of governing in polarized times,” Hulse writes. “The grudging G.O.P. collaboration with Democrats has only come about on truly existential, must-pass legislation — and typically only at the last minute after Republicans have exhausted all other options, making the coalition unlikely to hold on less critical bills and the social policy issues that sharply divide the two parties. And the political incentives are stacked decisively against it.”

WHAT’S NEXT: Despite the legislative win, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON could soon be without a gavel, as Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) waits to trigger a vote on her motion to oust him as speaker — betting that Republican members are going to hear it from their constituents back at home this week.

“That could go two ways for Johnson,” write Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney. “Tempers could cool as lawmakers return to their districts for a week and focus on their constituents and reelection bids. Or members, particularly in deep-red districts, hear more from an angry base — prompting more members to entertain action against Johnson.”

From the far right: “This whole bill package is an absolute sham and disgusting, and I blame Speaker Mike Johnson for that bill even being on the floor,” said Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.). “I will never support Speaker Mike Johnson as speaker again. That’s for certain.”

The vibes on center-right: “To me, it is a true profile in courage to put the interests of the nation above his own — himself and his career,” said Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas). “It was a gutsy call, but he knew it was the right thing. My stock in him went way up.”

NYT’s Catie Edmondson has a great stepback this morning on how Johnson, who as a backbencher voted against Ukraine aid, finally got to a yes: “He huddled with top national security officials, including WILLIAM J. BURNS, the C.I.A. director, in the Oval Office to discuss classified intelligence. He met repeatedly with broad factions of Republicans in both swing and deep red districts, and considered their voters’ attitudes toward funding Ukraine. He thought about his son, who is set to attend the U.S. Naval Academy in the fall.

“And finally, when his plan to work with Democrats to clear the way for aiding Ukraine met with an outpouring of venom from ultraconservatives already threatening to depose him, Mr. Johnson, an evangelical Christian, knelt and prayed for guidance.”

Related reads:

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THE GATHERING STORM — Saturday was supposed to be former President Trump’s return to the campaign trail after his first week in criminal court. Then a storm came.

“Not unlike the thunderstorm Saturday, the six-week criminal trial has also put a damper on Trump’s ability to campaign as he would like,” our Natalie Allison reports from Wilmington, North Carolina. “And it remains uncertain whether the Manhattan trial and other pending legal cases against Trump will hurt him with voters come November — an election expected to be painfully close.”

Tomorrow, opening arguments are scheduled to begin — which, as NYT’s Maggie Haberman observes in a sharp piece this morning, means that for “ the next six weeks, a man who values control and tries to shape environments and outcomes to his will is in control of very little.”

“Of the four criminal cases Mr. Trump is facing, this is the one that is the most acutely personal,” Maggie writes. “And people close to him are blunt when privately discussing his reaction: He looks around each day and cannot believe he has to be there. …

“People close to him are anxious about how he will handle having so little to do as he sits there for weeks on end, with only a handful of days of testimony expected to be significant. It has been decades since he has had to spend so much time in the immediate vicinity of anyone who is not part of his family, his staff or his throng of admirers. Over the next six weeks or so, Mr. Trump will have to endure more, including listening as prosecutors ask witnesses uncomfortable questions about his personal life in open court.”

Related reads:

SUNDAY BEST …

— Rep. TONY GONZALES (R-Texas) on Johnson, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “The House is a rough and rowdy place, but Mike Johnson is gonna be just fine. I served 20 years in the military, it’s my absolute honor to be in Congress. But I serve with some real scumbags. MATT GAETZ, he paid minors to have sex with him at drug parties. BOB GOOD endorsed my opponent, a known neo-Nazi. These people used to walk around with white hoods at night. Now they’re walking around with white hoods in the daytime.” Watch the clip

— Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) on his House GOP colleagues voting against Ukraine aid, on ABC’s “This Week”: “I think they bought into this notion that it’s an either or proposition: You can’t secure the border, you can’t support Ukraine without the border. We can do both. … The eyes of the world are watching, and our adversaries are watching, and history is watching. And that’s what I kept telling my colleagues: Do you want to be a Chamberlain or a Churchill? Because that is the moment in time that we are at.”

— Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) on the motion to vacate against Johnson, on “This Week”: “I would vote to table any motion to vacate him. … I’m a progressive Democrat, and I think you would have a few progressive Democrats doing that. And I disagree with Speaker Johnson on many issues and I’ve been very critical of him, but he did the right thing here and he deserves to keep his job till the end of this term.”

— Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on the aid package, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I think this support will really strengthen the armed forces of Ukraine. And we will have a chance for victory if Ukraine really gets the weapon system which we need so much, the thousands of soldiers need so much. … Our weapons are not that long-range. So we need it, and air defense. This is crucial. These are the priorities now.” More from Kelly Garrity

— Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on Sen. J.D. VANCE’s (R-Ohio) assertion that Ukraine lacks the manpower it needs to defeat Russia, on “Fox News Sunday”: “That is garbage. I just got back from being there two weeks ago. They changed their conscription laws. They have all the manpower they need. They need the weapons. … I challenge J.D. Vance to go to Ukraine and get a briefing from the Ukrainian military and talk with Ukrainian people, then tell me what you think. … We’re going back, you’re welcome to come.” More from Kelly Garrity

— South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM on how her views on a federal abortion ban changed, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I may be pro-life, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that I’m a dictator and that I get to decide that. Donald Trump recognizes the constitutional authority of the states. And I love that.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. “A FEW MINUTES’ ADVANCE NOTICE”: “Inside the White House’s Frenetic Scramble to Avert a Full-Blown Middle East War,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon, Warren Strobel and Gordon Lubold: “Biden and his national-security team watched with mounting alarm on April 13 as monitors in the White House Situation Room showed 30, then 60, then over 100 Iranian ballistic missiles streaking toward Israel. Iranian cruise missiles and a swarm of drones were already in the air, timed to arrive at the same time as the missiles — a massive barrage that Biden and his aides feared could overwhelm the strengthened defenses they and Israel had spent more than a week preparing. The scale of Tehran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel matched U.S. spy agencies’ worst-case scenarios, U.S. officials said later. It threatened not only a close U.S. ally, but Biden’s hopes of preventing a six-month Middle East crisis from widening into an all-out regional war.”

Related read: “American leaders should stay out of internal Israeli politics, Israel’s president says,” by David Cohen and Paul Ronzheimer … “Israeli strikes on southern Gaza city of Rafah kill 22, mostly children, as U.S. advances aid package,” by AP’s Mohammad Jahjouh and Samy Magdy … “Crackdowns, Attacks and Threat of War Put Iranians on Edge,” by NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi

2. CASH DASH: The early fundraising period of 2024 has left Biden’s reelection operation running well ahead of Trump, with the president commanding a serious cash advantage. But Trump’s team is now trying to close the gap, NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Neil Vigdor report, and is “spending much less than it was at the start of the year, which has helped it inch closer. In March, it spent just $3.7 million, the new filings show, compared with $11.4 million in January — and much less than the $29.2 million spent by Mr. Biden’s campaign in March.” At the end of March, Biden had $85.5 on hand, up from the $71 million on hand at the end of Feb.

Related read: “Biden’s budding behemoth, Trump’s legal spending and other takeaways from campaign finance reports,” by Jessica Piper and Steven Shepard

3. SCOTUS SETUP: “Supreme Court takes on Donald Trump, abortion bans, homeless camps in blockbuster week,” by USA Today’s Dan Morrison: “Most notably, the high court will weigh if and when a former president can claim criminal immunity for acts committed while in office as Trump, who is currently on trial for allegedly concealing hush money payments to an adult film actress, fights three additional indictments over his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his hoarding of classified documents.” Trump’s appeal is set to come before the justices on Thursday.

Related read: “The Town at the Center of a Supreme Court Battle Over Homelessness,” by NYT’s Abbie VanSickle in Grants Pass, Oregon

4. THE SPIRIT OF ‘68: “How the Israel-Gaza Protests Could Hurt the Democratic Party,” by NYT’s Jeremy Peters: “It’s a nightmare scenario for Democrats: Protesters disrupt their convention this summer; they clash with the police; chaos seems to take hold. It may not be imaginary. As protests over Israel’s war in Gaza continue to intensify, especially on college campuses, activists are preparing to be in Chicago this summer for the Democratic National Convention.

“The very idea sends some Democrats right back to 1968, when their convention, also in Chicago, was overshadowed by infighting and violence between the police and antiwar protesters. Back then, many voters watching the nightly news got the impression that the party could not control its own delegates, never mind a country that was wrestling with an unpopular war. Protests over the Israel-Hamas war could also complicate this year’s convention and the Democratic messaging for President Biden, whom Republicans have eagerly cast as too indulgent of chaos and disorder in American society.”

The risk: Dem strategist DAVID AXELROD tells NYT: “The whole Republican message is, ‘The world is out of control and Biden is not in command.’ … They will exploit any images of disorder to abet and support it.”

Related reads: “Pro-Palestinian Activists Dig In and Fan Out, as D.C. Pivots Toward Israel,” by WSJ’s Sabrina Siddiqui … “Pro-Israel Groups Promised to Be Active in Democratic Primaries. They Haven’t Done Much Yet,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman

5. MOVE FAST AND BREAK THINGS: “As Meta flees politics, campaigns rely on new tricks to reach voters,” by WaPo’s Naomi Nix, Michael Scherer and Jeremy Merrill: “The company has decreased the visibility of politics-focused posts and accounts on Facebook and Instagram as well as imposed new rules on political advertisers, kneecapping the targeting system long used by politicians to reach potential voters. Waves of layoffs have eviscerated the team responsible for coordinating with politicians and campaigns, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private personnel matters. This includes foreign-based workers and U.S. employees who promoted the company’s products to politicians and fielded questions from campaigns about their services.”

6. KEY ISSUE IN THE KEYSTONE STATE: “Joe Biden’s energy policies are fuelling Donald Trump’s campaign in Pennsylvania,” by FT’s Jamie Smyth in Washington County, Pennsylvania: “The White House’s decision to pause approvals for new liquefied natural gas projects has angered the shale gas industry, a big employer in Pennsylvania. It has also raised concerns among local Democrats, who warn a policy designed to appeal to young climate-conscious voters could harm Biden’s campaign in a state that produces a fifth of America’s natural gas.”

7. FROM THE OPPO FILES: “Lawsuit Puts Fresh Focus on Eric Hovde’s Comments About Older Voters,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman: “ERIC HOVDE, the Republican banking executive challenging Senator Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, may be developing a problem with older voters. The bank he leads, Utah-based Sunwest, last month was named as a co-defendant in a California lawsuit that accuses a senior living facility partly owned by the bank of elder abuse, negligence and wrongful death.

“Mr. Hovde’s campaign called the suit meritless and said it was farcical to hold the chairman and chief executive of a bank responsible for the actions of a business that it seized in a foreclosure in 2021. Whatever its merits, the suit might have been largely irrelevant to Mr. Hovde’s political campaign had he himself not boasted recently of having gained expertise in the nursing home industry as a lender to such residences.”

8. HARRIS IN THE SPOTLIGHT: “After rocky start, Kamala Harris emerges as the Biden campaign’s lead prosecutor on top issues,” by CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere: “No one in the vice president’s orbit, including Harris herself, needs to be reminded how the disappointment and disenchantment from her first years on the job still hang over her, or how odd it is that some voters say in interviews with CNN and outside focus groups they are inclined toward Biden but are turned off by Harris.

“CNN’s conversations with two dozen aides to the vice president, the reelection campaign and other top Democrats also show the paradox that even the most Biden-centric aides have been forced to grudgingly admit: There is another swath of voters turned off by the president — and their internal data shows Harris will be critical to getting them if Biden wants to win a second term.”

9. WON’T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN?: “Teens drinking legally? Republicans use scare tactics on NY’s abortion measure,” by Bill Mahoney in Albany: “New York Democrats hoping to drive turnout to critical House races in November are focused on a state-level Equal Rights Amendment that will, in part, ask voters to protect abortion rights. Republicans are responding with a provocative opposition campaign that warns ‘equal rights’ could upend society through a litany of unintended consequences — an echo of the 1970s battle that tanked the federal ERA. Opponents claim the amendment could open the door to minors buying alcohol. They say it would allow children to receive gender-affirming care without parental approval. They even say it could protect sexual predators.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Nikki Haley welcomed her husband, Michael, home from his National Guard deployment.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined a podcast about Robert Moses, the ultimate “Power Broker.”

IN MEMORIAM — “David Pryor, popular Arkansas governor and U.S. senator, dies at 89,” by WaPo’s Noel Rubinton: “David Pryor, an Arkansas governor and U.S. senator who rose to prominence in the 1970s as part of a wave of moderate ‘New South’ Democratic leaders and who became known on Capitol Hill for his work on behalf of senior citizens and helping create the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, died April 20 at his home in Little Rock. He was 89. … His two terms as governor — from 1975 to 1979 — were sandwiched between those of fellow Democrat reformers Dale Bumpers and Bill Clinton, and he helped the state pivot away from its segregationist past.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a party celebrating David Sanger’s new book “New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West” ($22.70) hosted by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, AG Merrick Garland, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Katherine Van Hollen, Wendy Sherman, Wendy Anderson, Kiersten Todt, Michael Froman, Mary Brooks, Matt Olsen, Tom Donilon, Mary Louise Kelly, Kevin Doughten, Valerie Hopkins, Ben Haas, Lisa Kaplan, Afsaneh and Michael Beschloss, Jane Mayer and Bill Hamilton, Bob and Patricia Schieffer, Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd, Finnish Ambassador Mikko Hautala, Jim Steinberg, Doug Rediker and Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Kori Schake and Indira Lakshmanan.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Hannah Hurley, comms director for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), and Matt Hurley, portfolio development manager at Metrea, on April 9 welcomed Marian Margaret Hurley, who joins big sister Lillian. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT’s Jodi Kantor … Saagar Enjeti … POLITICO’s Gloria Gonzalez and Molly Childers … Matt Rivera … Felix Salmon of Axios … Greg Lyons of the Farm Credit Administration … Collin O’Mara of the National Wildlife Federation … Jay Cranford of CGCN Group … Will Boyington … Brad Cheney of the Majority Group … Katherine Finnerty … Mercury’s Jon Reinish … Steven Chlapecka … Harry Williams of the Thurgood Marshall College Fund … MSNBC’s Amanda Hayes … Terrence Clark … FEMA’s Justin Knighten … Niamh King of the Aspen Institute … Annie Topp of Sen. John Thune’s (R-S.D.) office … Paul Haenle of JPMorgan … Ben Droz

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