Let’s talk about the West Bank

With help from John Sakellariadis, Daniel Lippman, Matt Berg and Gabriel Gavin

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Long before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, aides to President JOE BIDEN mulled whether to take serious steps, such as imposing sanctions, to punish Israeli settlers who were attacking Palestinians and pushing them off land in the West Bank.

But they chose to do nothing beyond issuing statements of concern.

It was a decision borne of a thousand political calculations that looked past the basics of the violence. But it’s one that’s led to some regret among Biden aides now that they are scrambling to reshape West Bank policy, according to a senior administration official familiar with the discussions.

In talks with current and former U.S. officials since Oct. 7, Nahal has repeatedly asked why the Biden team didn’t act years ago on the West Bank. Had they cracked down earlier, it could have signaled to Israel that America is serious about the need to stop Israeli settlement growth and preserve the West Bank for a future Palestinian state. It also could have signaled to Israeli voters that their main global ally is wary of their far-right politicians.

U.S. officials said that as they surveyed the reports of West Bank settler violence in those years before Oct. 7 they had other factors in mind.

Why bother causing a rift with Israel when the U.S. was hoping to get Israel and Saudi Arabia into a united front against Iran? Why spark a conflagration with Israel when the U.S. was trying to reduce its overall focus on the Middle East? What if sanctioning violent settlers only inspired Israel’s far-right to use anti-Americanism as a rallying cry for voters who view the West Bank as a rightful part of Israel?

For a good chunk of Biden’s time in office, a fragile coalition government that’s more moderate than the current one ran Israel. The U.S. feared that acting on the West Bank could harm that coalition. It fell apart anyway, and now Israel’s government is the most far-right in its history.

Administration officials Nahal spoke to don’t believe a tougher West Bank policy would have stopped Hamas’ plans to strike Israel from Gaza. But several gave her the strong sense that they wish they’d acted earlier rather than holding out for a better moment.

“I think the lesson to learn is that there’s never a perfect time for these things,” said the senior Biden administration official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

Administration critics say the lesson is something else: Don’t delay action against bad actors or you will embolden them.

“Imposing consequences on Israeli settler extremists is just the right thing to do. We should have done it years ago,” said MATTHEW DUSS, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy. “Empowering a far-right extremist government is also a political calculation, and that has been the result of the policy of no consequences.“

The White House and the State Department declined to comment.

The administration has adjusted since Oct. 7, imposing sanctions on West Bank settlers and reversing a Trump administration declaration that Israeli settlements are acceptable under international law. On Friday, in response to a ProPublica report that he’s delayed penalties for Israeli security units accused of West Bank rights abuses, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN suggested that’s about to change.

But the Hamas attack has so upset the Israeli public that a U.S. push for easing up on Palestinians anywhere may not have the effect it could have before. In March, while Blinken was visiting Israel, a far-right Israeli minister there announced that the government would be pursuing the largest land seizure in the West Bank in decades.

The Inbox

BIDEN’S IRAN APPROACH: The Biden administration is hoping that it can avoid escalation between Iran and Israel by staying quiet about Israel’s retaliation against Iran, our own ALEX WARD reports.

The administration has decided that they will keep mum about Israel’s Friday strikes on Isfahan, hoping that if the chest-beating ends, the drums of war in the Middle East might also stop beating. “No one wants to escalate things,” said an Israeli official, who was granted anonymity to detail the thinking behind the silent approach.

As our own LARA SELIGMAN and Alex reported earlier today, Israel’s strike was designed to avoid the outbreak of a wider regional war, according to a person familiar with the discussions. State media reported overnight that Iranian officials said the country’s air defense systems in the cities of Isfahan and Tabriz shot down a “suspicious object.” Explosions were heard close to a military airbase near Isfahan, home to Iran’s fleet of F-14 Tomcat fighter jets and some of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

On Capitol Hill, Rep. GREGORY MEEKS, a top foreign policy Democrat, told our own JOE GOULD “I believe that this is the right way … by being contained was the right way to go,” noting that it leaves room for “de-escalation” with Iran.

AID PACKAGE RULE PASSES: After days of hand-wringing, the House cleared a major procedural hurdle that will allow it to pass a slate of foreign aid bills providing military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, our own CAITLIN EMMA, JORDAIN CARNEY and NICHOLAS WU report.

In a 316-94 vote, the House passed a rule that will allow the foreign aid bills to be voted on separately in the House, but considered as one item in the Senate. The measure passed when 165 Democrats joined with 151 Republicans. The House is expected to approve all four bills on Saturday and that they will clear the Senate.

Kyiv in particular issued repeated warnings that delays in aid were increasing the risk of defeat, as Ukraine’s stocks have dwindled and morale has plummeted.

G7 nations today stated they would boost Ukraine’s air defenses in the wake of increased Russian strikes, according to Reuters’ CRISPIAN BALMER and ANGELO AMANTE. NATO will also provide Ukraine with more air defenses, according to NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG.

PANDAS TO SAN FRANCISCO: China will send a pair of its most beloved diplomats to the Bay Area, after the city’s Mayor LONDON BREED brokered a deal to bring pandas to the San Francisco Zoo, according to the San Francisco Chronicle’s TARA DUGGAN.

The panda deal comes on the heels of last year’s successful Asia-Pacific Economic Conference in the city, which saw a bilateral meeting between Biden and Chinese leader XI JINPING. It also represents a major win for Breed; our colleagues at California Playbook reported earlier this month that the effort was a political priority for the embattled mayor.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GLOBAL HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT: Blinken and top aides will unveil the State Department’s annual global Human Rights Report on Monday afternoon, according to a department official familiar with the plan and a document seen by Nahal.

The release plans are tentative, as usual, but the report is sure to be closely watched for the U.S. language on Israel and the Palestinians. Its release will also be a reminder that, due in part to GOP efforts to block nominees in the Senate, Biden has gone his entire term so far without an assistant secretary of State for human rights.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring Rep. MARK TAKANO (D-Calif.), a member of the House U.S.-Japan Caucus who spoke with us recently about Washington-Tokyo dynamics.

“My favorite drink is sparkling water,” Takano said, noting that he, “like a substantial portion of the Japanese population, has a genetic blessing — and not a defect — which is called alcohol dehydrogenase, otherwise known as Asian glow.”

As much as he’d like to sip on 25-year old Hibiki whisky made by Japanese company Suntory, “it’s not good for me health-wise.” We respect your decision … and probably should also consider our health after the newsletter goes out. One day!

Cheers, representative!

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP’S UKRAINE RAPPROCHEMENT: Former President DONALD TRUMP has seemingly had an about-face on Ukraine.

At first glance, there wasn’t anything out of the ordinary with a Truth Social post from Trump attacking Europeans for not supporting Ukraine enough. But a closer read of his comments showed that he wasn’t voicing opposition to U.S. aid to Ukraine. A person familiar with the former president’s thinking told our colleagues at Playbook that Trump intentionally “did not come down on one side or another.”

The ambiguous comments came on the heels of his dinner Wednesday with Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA, whom Trump calls a “great friend.” Duda had indicated he’d lobby the presumptive Republican frontrunner on Ukraine aid.

Democrats aren’t buying Trump’s “Damascus moment” on Ukraine. Meeks told Joe that “I don’t believe anything that Donald Trump does is authentic.”

Keystrokes

SENATE’S 702 TROUBLES: The Senate is heading toward a high-stakes vote this weekend that could seal the fate of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — or put the bill in limbo again, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in.

A bipartisan group of privacy hawks led by Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), and DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) are pushing Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to consider a series of amendments they argue are critical to preventing the foreign surveillance authority from becoming an end run around of Americans’ 4th Amendment rights. Wyden said the un-amended legislation “could change the relationship in this country between Americans and their government.”

But proponents in the Senate and in the Biden administration counter that the proposed guardrails are unnecessary and dangerous, given that any changes to the bill now would kick it back to the House and a key part of the statute expires at midnight tonight. (Skeptics have pointed out the program still can continue operating under a technicality.)

The Complex

ARTILLERY AIR DEFENSE FOR UKRAINE: The Pentagon is looking to rapidly approve a weapons package for Ukraine as soon as Congress passes additional funding for the country, Lara and our own CONNOR O’BRIEN report.

While the administration has not made a final decision on how large the tranche would be and what will be in it, defense officials are designing a package of U.S. equipment that can fly through the bureaucratic process once the legislation is signed by the president.

The package is the second the U.S. has sent since it ran out of funds in December after Congress stalled on the president’s request for additional aid. It will include artillery and air defenses to replenish Ukraine’s arsenal, officials said.

Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PATRICK RYDER declined to get into specifics about what will be in any future package, but told reporters on Thursday that the U.S. has a “very robust logistics network that enables us to move materiel very quickly” — possibly within days.

“We certainly understand and appreciate the urgency and are poised to move quickly,” Ryder said.

on the hill

WILSON’S MYSTERIOUS MEETING: For weeks, NatSec Daily has been trying to figure out what happened in a quiet meeting between Azerbaijani leader ILHAM ALIYEV and a group of lawmakers led by Rep. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) at the Munich Security Conference.

The mystery began when Eric and our own GABRIEL GAVIN received a tip that Wilson, who chairs the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, otherwise known as the Helsinki Commission, stated in the March 1 congressional record that the group he brought to Munich met with Aliyev on Feb. 17.

That raised eyebrows, given Aliyev’s actions toward neighboring Armenia in recent years and increasing criticism of antidemocratic practices in Azerbaijan. This year, Aliyev was reelected with more than 92 percent of the vote in an election widely condemned as fraudulent by international observers. It also comes as the Helsinki Commission, once a bipartisan bastion for transatlantic policymaking, has descended into infighting under Wilson’s leadership.

A lawmaker and two staffers, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive information about a congressional delegation and bilateral meetings, told NatSec Daily that it was known after the fact that a formal meeting occurred between lawmakers and Aliyev at some point, though a readout of the meeting was not available. It is also unclear which members attended the tag-along delegation that Wilson led to Munich.

Wilson’s office maintains that the group “simply saw President Aliyev on the street and took a photo with him and others.” Wilson’s office did not provide the photo when asked for it.

Broadsides

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HESAI CLAMPS DOWN ON RUSSIAN SALES: Hesai Group — a Chinese manufacturer of laser sensing and mapping technology — has ordered a Russian website to stop selling its products after some of its Western employees raised concerns about its equipment potentially being used by the Russian military in Ukraine, our DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in.

A Hesai official, granted anonymity to share internal conversations, told NatSec Daily that the North American and European sales teams were very concerned when they discovered their products, which are used in autonomous and electric cars, were being sold on the Russian website Technokauf since they can be also used to operate unmanned military vehicles. Hesai stopped selling to Russia in 2022 because of the invasion of Ukraine.

Hesai said in a statement to NatSec Daily that it has never engaged in any business with Technokauf and that products listed would have been obtained “through after-market channels beyond our control.” Technokauf didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Hesai, which has threatened legal action against the Pentagon after it was placed on the 1260H list denoting companies linked to the Chinese military, said it sought to remove the products after they learned about their availability. The company said that Technokauf removed Hesai products from their site.

It comes as Congress is increasing pressure on Hesai. The House China committee wrote a letter to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on Thursday calling for a ban on cars that use Hesai’s technology on American military bases. They worry that the technology could be used by the Chinese to spy on U.S. military facilities.

Transitions

— Biden has nominated CURTIS RAYMOND RIED to be the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He also nominated JOHN BRADFORD WIEGMANN to be the next general counsel of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

— MICHAEL ABRAMOWITZ will be the new director of Voice of America, the U.S. Agency for Global Media announced today. Abramowitz, the head of Freedom House, will take over from acting director JOHN LIPPMAN later this year.

What to Read

— NICHOLAS KRISTOF, The New York Times: What happened to the Joe Biden I knew?

— IAN WARD, POLITICO: The grand strategy behind J.D. Vance’s latest push to kill Ukraine aid

— AGATHE DEMARAIS, Foreign Policy: Forget about chips —China is coming for ships

Monday Today

— Women’s Foreign Policy Group, 9:30 a.m.: Shaping frontiers: U.S.-Bahrain relations and women’s role in Middle East diplomacy

— Heritage Foundation, 11 a.m.: A virtual discussion with former British Prime Minister LIZ TRUSS on “Ten Years to Save the West: Leading the Revolution Against Globalism, Socialism, and the Liberal Establishment”

— Georgetown University, 2 p.m.: The U.S. role in the world: looking beyond the 2024 presidential election

— United States Institute of Peace, 2:15 p.m.: “The Road to Washington’s NATO Summit,” focusing on increased engagement between NATO and partner countries in the Indo-Pacific - Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose misdeeds also merit consequences.

We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who never errs in any of his deeds.