Vaughn Dalzell predicts the right side in Game 3 between the Pelicans and Thunder, plus Game 4 with the Nuggets and Lakers.
Thunder (-1.5) at Pelicans: O/U 209.5
Oklahoma City was on a mission in Game 2 and knocked off the rust and first-time jitters of Game 1 with a lopsided 124-92 victory over the Pelicans.
The Thunder take a 2-0 series lead into New Orleans as the Pelicans look to avoid a sweep. While I have played a majority of the home teams down 0-2 on the spread or ML in Game 3, I cannot get behind New Orleans.
The Pelicans are 18-of-65 (27.7%) from three in the series and turned the ball over 31 times compared to the Thunder’s 21 turnovers and 48% from deep (24-of-50). Home-court advantage won’t change the Pelicans’ offensive issues and despite Jonas Valanciunas being an issue and mismatch, he will not be enough to steal a home win.
New Orleans’ bench posted 14 points on 5-of-18 from the field (27.7%) in the Game 2 blowout after 18 points on 8-of-20 (40%) in Game 1. The Pelicans bench is not to be trusted, while OKC has a lot more firepower.
I played OKC on the ML at -112 odds on FanDuel and would go to -140. I still believe the Thunder will sweep the Pels, which is around +175 compared to the 4-1 victory (+150).
Pick: Thunder ML (1u)
Nuggets (-3) at Lakers: O/U 216.5
Sadly, the Cavaliers lost Game 3, so we cannot win our +1038 parlay for both Cleveland and Denver to sweep, but the Nuggets are in a good position for that to happen.
Up 3-0, Denver was able to put together another superior second-half to pull ahead of Los Angeles for a third straight game. No matter the deficit, Denver has proven they can come back and win, or is it the opposite where Los Angeles cannot hold a lead?
Regardless, Denver is one win away from a second straight sweep over Los Angeles and I see no reason why that will not happen. The Lakers bench does not have enough firepower, LeBron James at 39 years old cannot come back from 0-3, and the role players of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves had their moments, but it’s not enough.
I played Denver on the ML at -148 odds on DraftKings and expected this to be more like -180 and to close around -200.
Pick: Nuggets ML (Risk 2u)
Season Record: 40-31 (56.3%) +11.44 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
Risk 1.5u: Nuggets -1.5 series spread vs Lakers (-140)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Knicks to win series vs 76ers (-118)
1u: Knicks to win Game 1 vs 76ers and series (+170)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
1u: Thunder to sweep the Pelicans 4-0 (+225)
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