Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch: Saves on the wire, Wilyer Abreu staying hot

Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where we review the top waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season.

The premise is pretty straightforward. I’ll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I’ll try to list the category where I think he’ll be helpful or the quick reason he’s listed. My hope is that it will help you to determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs or not.

For a player to qualify to be on this list, he needs to be UNDER 50% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, “These players aren’t available in my league,” and I can’t help you there. These players are available in over 50% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they’re available in many places and that can hopefully satisfy readers in all league types.

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We’ll start by just looking at the teams with the best overall schedule in the next week. It’s just a part of the equation but it’s good to know which hitters will face an easier road.

Hitters

Wilyer Abreu - OF, BOS (49% rostered) was 34% as of Friday
(POWER/SPEED AND STARTING JOB)

I mentioned Abreu last week after Alex Cora said he would be starting against all right-handers. Since Cora has committed to him, Abreu has caught fire, hitting 15-for-43 (.349) over the last two weeks with two home runs, 10 runs scored, nine RBI, and three steals. He has flashed power and speed in the minors before, so this may not be a fluke. He’s been hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup with Triston Casas gone and that could be a profitable place to be with Rafael Devers looking good of late and Tyler O’Neill back from his concussion.

Eloy Jimenez - OF, CWS: 48% rostered
(POWER, HEALTH - FOR NOW)

I know that we’re down on the White Sox, and rightfully so, but there is still some value in some players on this roster. One of them is Eloy Jimenez. While he’s not often healthy, when he is, we know that he has the power to make a difference on your fantasy team. He’s been DHing every day since coming off the IL and hitting anywhere from second to fourth in the order. He also has three home runs and eight RBI since coming back. He’s not going to steal bases and the counting stats won’t be great on the White Sox, but he’s still worth a grab in most formats. I’ve also mentioned Brandon Marsh - OF, PHI (41% rostered) a few times here, but he deserves another shoutout. The strikeout rates are up as he sells out for more power, but he’s also hitting
.293 with six home runs, 16 RBI, and three steals while playing every day in an elite lineup. That’s worthy of being on a lot of rosters.

TJ Friedl - OF, CIN: 42% rostered
(IMPROVING HEALTH AND STARTING JOB)

Friedl is likely to start a rehab assignment next week, which means he might be two weeks away from a return to the Reds lineup. Given his defense in center field, he’s likely going to return to a full-time starting job. I don’t like hitters returning from wrist injuries, but it’s more impactful when those players have power as a main component of their value. Friedl should still be able to use his legs to hit for a high average and get a good amount of steals while hitting at the top of this Reds lineup. That’s worth a stash in most formats for me. I also like stashing Tommy Pham - OF, CWS (3% rostered), who just got called up by the White Sox this weekend. He’s 4-for-10 with two runs scored to start his career in Chicago but remember that he’s coming off a season where he hit .256 with 16 home runs and 22 steals. That will play in a lot of formats.

Luis Rengifo - 2B/3B/SS/OF, LAA: 43% rostered
(HEALTH, SPEED)

I had Rengifo on here last week, so I’ll repeat what I said then (with updated stats): “For a while, it seemed like Rengifo was playing strictly a bench role for the Angels. Then he was fighting his way into playing time and hurt his hamstring. Now, he’s starting regularly and, perhaps more important for fantasy leagues, is running frequently. Ron Washington had said he wanted his team to steal more this year, and so far he’s made good on that. Rengifo has seven steals over his last two weeks, and, given his multi-position eligibility, is a great bench bat in most league types to move all around your lineup even if the batting average hasn’t followed yet.” In deeper formats, it also might be time to give Willi Castro - 2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN: (10% rostered) another try. He was brutal to start the year, but he’s hitting .304 over the last two weeks with a home run, seven RBI, and one steal. He stole 33 bases last year and is playing every day with Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis out, so he’s a great multi-position option if you need speed.

Mark Canha - 1B/OF, DET: 40% rostered
(RUNS, STARTING JOB)

Yes, Mark Canha is boring and an older player, but we shouldn’t only be chasing young players or “upside” on the waiver wire. What we want is production and the more consistent the production the better. Canha has been a solid pro for a while and is playing every day in Detroit’s lineup. He doesn’t have any elite traits, but he makes a good amount of contact, has 20+ home run power, will chip in a few steals, and should put up enough counting stats in an improving Tigers lineup. He’s more of a streaming hitter in 12-team leagues but can be a full-time guy in 15-teamers. It’s boring but effective.

Keibert Ruiz - C, WAS: 36% rostered
(RETURN FROM INJURED LIST)

Ruiz returned from the injured list on Thursday and is immediately back on 12-team radars. He’s never going to hit for a ton of power, but he makes a lot of contact and will put up a solid batting average, which can help with counting stats as well. He should also be in the lineup at least 75% of the team’s games, which is good for fantasy value.

Brenton Doyle - OF, COL: 36% rostered

(SPEED, POTENTIAL NEW LEVEL)

I covered Doyle in my article on exit velocity sleepers this week, so I encourage you to check that out for a more detailed breakdown.

Ryan Jeffers - C, MIN (36% rostered)
(PLAYING TIME BOOST, POWER)

The Twins lineup has been ravaged by injuries, which has made Jeffers the biggest short-term winner because he’s been DHing when he’s not catching. That will give him more than enough at-bats each week to contribute value in both one and two-catcher formats. I wouldn’t drop an established catcher getting everyday playing time because I think Jeffers will lose at-bats when Minnesota gets healthy, but he should be really useful in the short-term given his strong bat. If you want another catcher option, it might be time to look at what Connor Wong - C, BOS (15% rostered) is doing. He’s hitting .350 with four home runs over the last two weeks and is now firmly on the one-catcher league radar if you had Sean Murphy or Francisco Alvarez or a struggling guy like Alejandro Kirk. There’s also Patrick Bailey - C, SF (10% rostered), who is their everyday starter and is hitting .313 over the last two weeks with two home runs and seven RBI. He even threw in a steal for good measure. Bailey was solid last year as a rookie and has made some clear gains this year that make him a guy who should be rostered in all two-catcher formats.

Junior Caminero - 3B, TB: 34% rostered
(PRIORITY STASH)

Junior Caminero is another repeat from last week and remains my favorite prospect stash if you have the bench space to do it. He suffered a quad injury that sidelined him at Triple-A and had a brief setback this week, but his manager claims he was rested for precaution, and he should be back in the lineup Sunday or Monday. When he’s on the field, Caminero continues to look like a player who could actually produce more immediate fantasy value than Jackson Holliday. The Rays aren’t getting much from their DH spot, and Brandon Lowe is now on the IL with an oblique injury. There’s a chance the Rays will give Caminero a few games to get his timing back and show that he’s fully healthy before giving him another shot at the big leagues.

Jake Fraley - OF, CIN: 31% rostered
(POWER/SPEED, SCHEDULE BOOST)

Fraley is one of those tough players to roster because he sits against most left-handed pitchers, which means you really need to check the schedule before you pick him up in a weekly format to ensure that he’ll play enough. The good news for Fraley is that the Reds will face five right-handed pitchers this week and one lefty. That lefty is John Means, who isn’t even guaranteed to get a start. This could be a huge week for Fraley.

Jesse Winker - OF, WAS: 27% rostered
(POWER, STARTING JOB)

Yes, I’m listing Jesse Winker here and I can’t believe it. However, I think we’ve forgotten how good a hitter Winker was before battling injuries. Yes, the power he showed in Cincinnati was likely inflated by his home ballpark, but he is also in a good ballpark now. He’s always had strong plate discipline and seems to have a regular spot in Washington’s lineup. I think the Nationals are going to keep running him out there until somebody makes a trade offer that’s so enticing they trade him away. The lineup around him isn’t great, but it’s good enough in deeper formats.

Vaughn Grissom - SS, BOS: 24% rostered
(HEALTH AND STARTING JOB)

Grissom has been playing 2B almost every game during his rehab assignment and could be back up in Boston this week. When he’s up, he’s going to play every day at second base. He won’t hit for a ton of power, but he’ll likely sport a good batting average and give you some chip-in steals while hitting in a solid lineup. That’s a really good MIF option in most formats. I also think we could buy back in on Zach Neto - SS, LAA (12% rostered). I was big into Neto this year coming off his solid debut in 2023, but he really stumbled out of the gate. He’s starting to right the ship while also stealing bases and recently moving up to the top third of the order in Los Angeles. Those are intriguing new developments.

Andy Pages - OF, LAD 24% rostered
(STARTING JOB, POWER UPSIDE)

When Pages was first called up, the question was if he was going to play enough to warrant our attention. So far, he has started every game since coming up while hitting 282 with 10 runs scored, two home runs, and five RBI. Pages has big-time power and has improved his contact rates this year. He’s not going to hit high up in the order, but this is a lineup you want pieces of and Pages is a readily available one. Max Kepler - OF, MIN (15% rostered) has also come off the IL swinging a hot bat, going 8-for-18 (.421) with a home run and seven RBI. He is coming off a strong 2023 season and was a target for me in deeper formats during draft season.

Luis Garcia - 2B/SS, WAS: 21% rostered
(PLAYING TIME, POTENTIAL NEW LEVEL)

It’s not the fourth week in a row for Garcia but nobody else seems to want him and I’m scooping all the shares, so here is what I’ve been saying: Much like his teammate CJ Abrams, I think we sometimes forget how young Garcia is because he debuted so early. Garcia is just 23 years old and showing his best exit velocities yet. He’s top-40 in baseball in barrels per plate appearance so far and has a 50% exit velocity of 101.8 mph, which means the average of the hardest 50% of balls he hits is 101.8 mph. That’s 59th in baseball. He’s also now hitting in the middle of the Nationals’ lineup. It’s early and we don’t want to overreact to that, but we also want to acknowledge a young player who is showing quality contact.”

Joey Loperfido - HOU, OF/2B: 12% rostered
(POTENTIAL STASH, POWER/SPEED)

Loperfido is another possible stash in deeper formats or OBP/OPS formats. He has tremendous power, but the contact could be an issue in the big leagues. He’s probably a .240 hitter right now, but he gets a boost in OPS and OBP formats and that power in Houston’s lineup would be enticing. I think you can also stash Coby Mayo - 3B, BAL (8% rostered) now that Jackson Holliday has been sent down. The Orioles won’t keep playing Ramon Urias in the infield, but they could move Jordan Westburg to 2B and allow Mayo to come up and play 3B. Another stash is Orelvis Martinez - 2B/3B/SS - TOR (8% rostered) who’s hitting .305 with three home runs and 11 RBI in 15 games at Triple-A for the Blue Jays. I can’t see Toronto continuing to run out Cavan Biggio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa every day, so it seems only a matter of time before Orelvis gets a shot.

Gabriel Arias - 1B/3B/SS/OF, CLE: 7% rostered
(POTENTIAL STARTING JOB, POWER UPSIDE)

I had a few shares of Arias in draft-and-hold formats because I was intrigued by his 10% barrel rate last season. He started the year on the bench, but he has now worked himself into a regular spot in the Guardians lineup due to the struggles of the players around him, starting seven of the last eight games for the Guardians. He’s responded by hitting .302/.321/.489 with one home run, seven RBI, and a steal in 11 games. He won’t take a walk and he will strike out, but he’s one of the few players on the team that can hit the ball with consistent authority and the lineup can use that. His positional versatility can also make him more valuable but keep in mind that the playing time could dry up in the blink of an eye.

Jo Adell - OF, LAA: 6% rostered
(POTENTIAL STARTING JOB, POWER UPSIDE)

Is it happening for Adell? It’s been just 18 games for him so far this season, but he’s cut his strikeout rate, is making more contact, and has lowered his swinging strike rate. He’s also barreling the ball over 13% of the time and already has two home runs and five steals. We love all of that. What we don’t love is that his SwStr% is still 15%, he’s chasing out of the zone more often and he’s both pulling and lifting the ball less. The more line-drive all-fields approach may help the batting average, but it will sap some of the power output and the additional aggression outside of the zone isn’t ideal. Still, he has intriguing raw tools and is playing more now, so he could be worth a shot. You could also take a gamble in deeper leagues on Trevor Larnach - OF, MIN (2% rostered), who is starting every day and hitting .379 over the last two weeks with two home runs, seven runs scored, and seven RBI. He’s never made good on some prospect intrigue, but perhaps he can have a stretch as a solid regular here.

Matt Mervis - 1B, CHC: 3% rostered
(POWER POTENTIAL, PLAYING TIME OPPORTUNITY)

It didn’t happen for Mervis last year but as we always say, “Prospect growth is not linear.” In Triple-A noth last year and this year, Mervis had just a 23% strikeout rate but a walk rate of nearly 15%. When you combine that type of plate discipline with 60-grade raw power, you have a pretty intriguing profile. Mervis is a .278 career minor league hitter with a .904 OPS, so there is a track record of success, but he’s also 26 years old and has not looked good in limited MLB at-bats. It’s certainly a gamble, but considering Mervis looks set to be the DH against right-handed pitching, it’s one I think I would be taking. You could also go for Hunter Goodman - 1B/OF, COL (3% rostered) who has shown even more power and will play his home games in Coors Field. Goodman has never had the walk rates Mervis has and doesn’t have his contact ability, but he does have more power and has been making gains in terms of contact at Triple-A, so maybe there is a possible breakout here.

Pitchers

Hector Neris- RP, CHC: 49% rostered

Hector Neris is currently closing in Chicago and has looked better since his brutal start to the year. Still, even while looking better, he has not been lights out and has come close to blowing a couple of saves already. Craig Counsell seems to like him, and Counsell does like to settle on one closer, so Neris is the guy for now, but you’re in deeper formats, it’s also fine to roster Mark Leiter Jr. - CHC: (14% rostered), who has arguably been the better pitcher and may get a shot if Neris stumbles.

Jason Adam - RP, TB: 48% rostered
Pete Fairbanks has been placed on the IL with a nerve issue which is particularly concerning since he has Reynaud’s Syndrome, which impacts feeling in your fingers and your ability to grip a baseball obviously. We have no firm timetable for Fairbanks, but Jason Adam is the next man up on the hierarchy. As a result, he should be the first option people turn to if you’re looking for saves in Tampa Bay, but we also know that Tampa Bay will also split the saves share, so a small bid on Garrett Cleavinger - RP, TB (9% rostered) makes some sense since he already has two saves and is clearly in the late-inning mix.

Joel Payamps - RP, MIL: 47% rostered
After the first week of the season, it looked like Abner Uribe would be the Brewers’ closer, but he has been pitching as early as the fourth inning recently, suggesting that he’s more of a fireman. In his stead, Joel Payamps has been getting a few save opportunities, but my preferred option is Trevor Megill - RP, MIL (7% rostered), who was being used in the most high-leverage situations before suffering a concussion. He’s already back and was immediately thrust into a high-leverage situation last Friday when Pat Murphy tried to let Megill finish off a two-inning save, but the reliever just ran out of gas. Megill then faced the heart of the opponent’s order again early this week before securing a save on Thursday. I think this will be a shared situation, so both should be rostered, but I like what Megill is doing.

Reed Garrett - RP, NYM: 37% rostered
Every year, a group of ratio-helping relievers emerge into the fantasy landscape ready to help our teams. Even though they are not likely to get saves, they can rack up strikeouts and help balance our ratios and that can often be more valuable than streaming a mediocre starter or chasing saves with a flawed reliever. Other options for that could be A.J. Minter - RP, ATL (34% rostered), Yimi Garcia - RP, TOR (30%) or Andrew Chafin - RP, DET (2% rostered).

Mitchell Parker - SP, WAS: 33% rostered
A few starting pitchers have popped onto the radar over the last couple of weeks, but I wanted to mention Parker because I think he has a real shot to stick in a pretty mediocre Nationals rotation. I know the start on Saturday wasn’t ideal, but he also didn’t hurt you much. The fastball velocity isn’t elite, but he gets good extension and “rise” on it, which is why Lance Brozdowski said it’s like a mini Shota Imanafa fastball. I’m not sure just how high the ceiling is here, but I’m willing to take a gamble in deeper formats. If you want to know the other starting pitchers who I think are above regular streamers, I like Luis Gil - NYY: 35% rostered, Casey Mize - DET: 26% rostered, Reese Olson - DET: 16% rostered, Keaton Winn - SF: 13% rostered, Albert Suarez - BAL: (12% rostered), and Erick Fedde - CWS: (11% rostered(

Check out my list of weekly streamers below.

Kenta Maeda - SP, DET: 23% rostered
My interest in Maeda is based on something I saw while doing his write-up for NBC Sports. I’m not sure it’s anything, but it caught my attention in deeper formats.

Taj Bradley - SP, TB: 20% rostered
If you have a league with a large number of IL spots, now may be the time to stash Bradley. He will make his first rehab start on Sunday and while he’ll need a few starts to get built back up,he could return to the Tampa Bay rotation by mid-May. We’re not entirely sure what to expect from him, but we know the talent is there for him to be a difference-maker.

Jameson Taillon - SP, CHC: 19% rostered
I had been advocating for stashing Taillon for a couple of weeks, but he returned from the IL and made his debut on Friday against the Marlins and looked pretty good. I covered him as one of my deep league sleepers in the pre-season, so you can read that article to get a full sense of my thoughts on Taillon. I also have some interest in Simeon Woods-Richardson - SP, MIN (14% rostered), who has a shot to replace Louie Varland in the Twins rotation. The profile isn’t incredibly exciting, but he’ll be solid enough to be relevant in deeper formats; I just don’t think the ceiling is there to be anything more than a streamer in 12-team leagues.

STREAMING STARTER OPTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK (ranked in loose order)

Trevor Rogers (MIA) - vs WAS, @ OAK

Jon Gray (TEX) - vs WAS, @ KC

Steven Matz (STL) - @ DET, vs CWS

Reese Olson (DET) - vs STL

Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) - @ SEA

Hunter Brown (HOU) - vs CLE, vs SEA

Jake Irvin (WAS) - @ MIA, vs TOR

Ryan Feltner (COL) - @ MIA, @ PIT

Ryan Weathers (MIA) - @ OAK

Erick Fedde (CWS) - @ STL

Jack Flaherty (DET) - vs STL

Bailey Falter (PIT) - @ OAK, vs COL

Yariel Rodriguez (TOR) - vs KC, @ WAS

Roddery Munoz (MIA) - vs COL, @ OAK

Cooper Criswell (BOS) - vs SF, @ MIN

Jose Soriano (LAA) - @ CLE

Mike Clevinger (CWS) - @ STL

Paul Blackburn (OAK) - vs MIA

Simeon Woods-Richardson (MIN) - @ CWS

Ben Lively (CLE) - vs LAA

Josh Wincowski (BOS) - @ MIN

Players to Drop

It’s now been a month, so we’re starting to get a better sense of who players are in 2024. I would still not be cutting my early-round picks (top 100 guys) because there is plenty of time left in the season, but I’ll give you a few players who are rostered in over 50% of leagues who I think might be OK to cut bait on. I’ll also list the schedule as well to highlight which teams have fewer games or face a tougher road of pitchers.

Mitch Keller - SP, PIT: 82% rostered
This is more for 10 and 12-team leagues, but I think it’s OK to move on from Keller in those formats. He has a 5.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the season and isn’t showing many signs that he’s a different pitcher from the one who had a poor second half of 2023. I know he’s flashed some upside before and had a great first half last year, but he has never been consistent. His pitch mix lacks a truly elite pitch, and I think he’s more of a streamer at this point.

Jackson Holliday - 2B/SS, BAL: 74% rostered (this was drafted on Friday morning before he was demoted)
This is for redrafts leagues ONLY, and it’s not even a suggestion to drop Holliday as much as it is a suggestion to see if you can trade him based on his name value and prospect status. EDIT: Now that Holliday as been demoted, I do think you can cut bait in redraft leagues. He’ll be up later, but his immediate upside is not as high as many believed based on scouting reports centered around his future potential.

Kyle Harrison - SP, SF: 67% rostered

Just to be clear, I’m not putting Harrison here as an outright drop in all formats, but I’m listing him here because I think we need to drop our expectations on Harrison and treat him as more of a streamer. Obviously, in 15-team leagues and deeper formats, you can hold Harrison, but I don’t believe he warrants being held all season long in 12-team leagues. The concern coming into the year was that he relied too much on his fastball and didn’t have enough other pitches. Well, this season he’s throwing the fastball more at 68%. The pitch grades out fine, but it doesn’t miss bats, so it’s more of a high zone rate pitch that can get Harrison outs. The downside is that he doesn’t have a pitch that consistently misses bats. His curve has just a 5.3% SwStr% and his changeup has looked good, but has a sub-10 % SwStr% to righties and is not really an out pitch. Considering Harrison doesn’t have an elite four-seam, his overall pitch mix leaves a lot to be desired, and I’m not a believer that we’re going to get some other level of brilliance that we’re not currently seeing.

Gavin Williams - SP, CLE: 55% rostered
Sadly, this is all about health. Williams felt renewed pain in his right elbow while ramping up for his rehab assignment and while the Guardians say he will still pitch this year and that his MRI came back clean, it’s hard to feel good about a pitcher who continues to feel pain in his throwing elbow without anybody being able to identify why. Given how many pitchers are already injured and on your IL, I don’t think you can keep holding Williams.

Players to Hold

Nolan Jones - OF, COL: 82% rostered
Most people have not yet cut Jones, as evidenced by his roster rates; however, I’m getting plenty of questions in my weekly waiver comments and during our Q&A’s from managers who clearly WANT to cut Jones, so I wanted to address this here. First of all, Jones was likely a top-50 pick in your drafts. We’re just a month into the season, so it’s absolutely too early to be cutting top-50 picks unless there’s an injury or a role change, like a demotion. Guys who you drafted inside the top 50 are players you believed were elite or had elite fantasy skills. We can’t abandon that because of roughly 25 games. If you want to bench those players, fine, but you shouldn’t cut them. For Jones, specifically, it seems he’s making a conscious effort to dial back his aggression, but it’s working against him. He’s swinging less and has a much better zone contact rate and swinging strike rate as a result, but he’s also sporting a 37% strikeout rate because he has a 26% called strike rate. That is one of the worst in baseball. He’s getting himself into far more two-strike counts, which is putting pitchers at an advantage so he’s swinging at pitches he can’t do as much damage on. To me, that’s less a concern with the player than it is with the approach, and I think the approach could shift back closer to what we saw last year and we could be looking at the same Nolan Jones we thought we were drafting.

Garrett Crochet - SP, CWS: 55% rostered
I understand people are concerned about Garrett Crochet and think his early season success was flukey, but I wouldn’t abandon him just yet. His 2.76 SIERA and .304 BABIP suggest that the recent cold stretch is more about bad luck than poor skills. He has just a 37% Ideal Contact Rate allowed, which is essentially league average, while continuing to miss tons of bats with a 15% SwStr% and 32% strikeout rate. His arsenal grades out well, but the command has started to fail him of late, particularly on the slider. We certainly need to recalibrate our belief that he was a “league-winner” off the waiver wire, but I’m willing to hold onto a young pitcher who isn’t allowing hard contact and is missing lots of bats. That warrants a bit more of a longer lease in my opinion, even if it’s on your bench for one or two more starts.

Jeimer Candelario - 1B/3B, CIN: (48% rostered)
I know Candelario hasn’t been great to start the year, but there are a few reasons I think you need to hold on. The first is that he has an everyday spot in a good Reds lineup in a great home park. The second is that his season last year was not flukey. He’s a good hitter who was pulling and lifting the ball more than he had in years past, which led to a power boost. He’s always posted solid batting averages, so the added power was a nice addition. Maybe he’s pressing to earn his new contract. Maybe it’s just a cold streak, but I would not be cutting him loose in most 12-team leagues and deeper because I think this will click in.

Ceddanne Rafaela - OF/SS, BOS: 22% Rostered
Rafaela was 41% rostered two weeks ago when I suggested holding him, so clearly people have cut bait since then and I don’t blame them. I know it hasn’t looked good so far this year. However, he’s also a talented young player who had 22 home runs and 39 steals in 2023 and is likely going to remain in the lineup every day for Boston after signing an eight-year contract extension. Rookies don’t always adapt to MLB pitching quickly, as we saw with Jackson Holliday, but I do think Rafaela is beginning to come around, as evidenced by his huge day on Saturday. If you’re in a shallow league, I can see moving on, but I’d try to hold a bit longer to see if Saturday kicks off a little hot stretch.