There’s new evidence of the gap between most Americans and Washington on immigration.
In Congress, the issue remains paralyzed, mostly because of Republican opposition to anything short of mass deportation. Meanwhile, the Trump administration wants to deny permanent residency to legal immigrants who receive many government benefits and has taken other steps to reduce the number of foreign-born residents.
Yet the Pew Research Center, one of the most respected pollsters, just reported that the attitudes of most Americans run counter to that of the administration. On key points, the difference is bipartisan.
Despite the demagoguery of the last two-plus years, 72 percent of Americans still support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. That’s down from 77 percent in March 2017, with most of the decline among Republicans.
According to Pew, however, 54 percent of Republicans want that option if those here illegally meet whatever criteria Congress might determine. Seventy-seven percent of Americans — and 64 percent of Republicans — also believe that illegal immigrants take jobs that Americans don’t want.
Yet for now on this vital issue, minority rule wins. Well-financed immigration-restriction groups and right-wing media bloviators reinforce the message President Trump used in 2016 and intends to use again.
For Trump, it means another term. For the country, it’s a self-defeating approach. The numbers explain why.
Between 2000 and 2018, the percentage of births in the United States to white mothers declined from 59 percent to 53 percent. For many reasons, native Caucasian women are having fewer children. It’s also the trend across Western Europe.
During the same period, the percentages among total births rose slightly for American-born Hispanic and Asian mothers. But birth rates for Hispanic women also are dropping, whether born here or abroad.
Finally, the growth rate last year in the United States was the lowest since 1937 — during the Depression. In areas such as New England, where overall deaths are rising, births are declining and immigrants aren’t coming, economic activity is down and schools are emptying.
The Washington Post reported last week on Maine, where nearly one-fifth residents are 65 and older. The state lacks caregivers for that aging population. Failure to find enough young employees, one advocate said, could be “catastrophic.”
The oldest state, of course, is Florida. Unlike Maine, however, Florida has attracted immigrants domestically and from abroad. Roughly 20 percent of Florida’s population is foreign-born. Nationwide, the level is the highest in a century.
That influx has caused dramatic demographic shifts. In 2010, Florida became one of what are now 18 states where Latino students comprise at least 20 percent of public school kindergartners.
Every credible study, however, shows that the United States will need a steady, increasing supply of younger residents over the next three decades to keep the economy running as my generation of Baby Boomers ages. If natives can’t meet the demand, we’ll need immigrants.
Trump and other demagogues regularly tout immigration restriction as a way to preserve American culture. Japan tried that approach. With the country aging and the economy at risk, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe now wants foreigners.
Those numbers present the reality of immigration for hardline Republicans. The hard reality for Democrats is that, with Trump in office, reform won’t happen without input from Stephen Miller, the architect of the president’s anti-immigrant policies.
That assumes Trump wants to address immigration, not just run on it. He can tweet about Democrats changing asylum laws, but direction must come from the White House and Congress must write an actual bill.
Even basic progress remains elusive. This year, House Democrats — and seven Republicans — passed legislation that would allow legal residency for “Dreamers” and others in protected status. Two-thirds of Americans support action on Dreamers. The Republican-led Senate likely won’t even debate it.
Emotion drives this debate far more than numbers. But here’s one more.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the 2013 immigration reform bill would have reduced federal budget deficits by roughly $200 billion over 10 years and boosted the economy. It contained tens of billions more for security and included conditions on the granting of legal status for those here illegally.
Six years later, sentiment for such legislation remains. Because of broken politics, however, we can’t get there from here.
Randy Schultz’s email address is randy@bocamag.com
