Relief! Flood Forecasts Lowered; Next Two Weeks Expected to Be Dry

ST. LOUIS – Less rain than predicted has led to lower flood forecasts in upcoming weeks.

National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said rains did fall across Central Missouri, Eastern Kansas and Iowa, which did lead to a bit of a bump of Missouri River levels, but said it was not enough rain to cause crests to reach similar levels they did earlier this week across the area. He said areas like St. Louis and Alton, which are directly affected by Missouri River levels most, would see the possibility of an increase measuring less than a foot. Areas like Grafton and Hardin, which are inundated with Illinois River flooding would not see much of an increase, if any at all. He also said those suffering from flood-related issues would soon find a bit of relief, as rain predictions over the next two weeks are at or below average rates. This, he said, will give the rivers a chance to evacuate their excess water.

Despite what is undoubtedly good news to folks across the Riverbend, this evacuation will not be swift. Fuchs said levels at St. Louis will most likely not dip below flood levels for at least another week or two. He said Alton could take nearly three weeks, Grafton would take more than three weeks and Hardin, which has been bearing the worst of the flooding, may have to wait as long as a month for waters to dip below flood stages.

In Hardin, waters recently crested at 37.8 feet, and Fuchs said it was likely they would hover around that level for several days. He said the Illinois River is “slow to rise,” and “even slower to fall.”

While the immediate forecast is showing a trend toward dryer weather, Fuchs said the region should use that chance to prepare for the next major flooding event – whether that happens in mere months or several years.

“Don't let your guard down,” he said. “I say that, because this is similar to what happened in '93. I know 1993 and 2019 are two very different years, and I'm not saying that is what is going to happen. It is just a cautionary note to say we are not necessarily done with this flood season yet.”

In 1993, Fuchs said spring flooding came and went like it is in the process of doing this year before massive rainfall came at the end of June, causing the rivers to rise even higher. Fuchs warned the issue with large thunderstorm complexes from late June through July could pose a threat for additional flooding later in the season. He said 1993, 2008 and 2013 were each examples of early summer thunderstorms causing major flooding.

Until then, however, Fuchs advised communities work on repairing what was damaged during this particular historic flooding event so they will be ready for the next one when it inevitably comes.

“Lately, it's been way too common,” Fuchs said of major flooding events.

In previous interviews with Riverbender.com, Fuchs dismissed the concern some people have of high levees causing increased flooding, instead saying it was due to an influx of precipitation. He said that influx was most likely due to some sort of climate change, but could not comment as to what in particular was causing that.

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