Murray's Mailbag: Is everybody overrating the Nevada basketball team?
Chris MurrayWe need to talk about Yanni. My wife and I went to see him at the Grand Sierra Resort last night (I bought tickets for my dad for his birthday but so did my mom, leaving me with two extra tickets). I have never seen a line to get into a concert in Reno as long as the one to get into Yanni yesterday.
The entire place was filled, rare for a show at the GSR, and nobody was in line at the bar or to get T-shirts. They were all glued to their seats because they didn’t want to miss a minute of Yanni. I had never heard a Yanni song, but I was pleasantly surprised at how good it was. I am now a Yanni supporter. I also believe my wife and I are the only two people in Reno who went to both the Glitch Mob and Yanni concerts. Email me if you went to both those shows, too.
But enough with mustachioed Greeks. I think you came for questions about the Nevada basketball team. Here we go.
Considering I’ve never been wrong in my life, no. There is zero chance my prognostication for Nevada being a top-10 team is wrong. And it’s not just me. ESPN, CBS, NBC, Yahoo, The Athletic and the NCAA (Andy Katz) all have Nevada as a top-10 team. Could they all be wrong? Yes. But I can’t be wrong. Never happened.
A quick fact check on your question: Nevada played three Power 5 games last year – Texas Tech, TCU and Texas – and went 1-2 in those games (that doesn’t include a win over No. 6 Cincinnati). It dominated Texas Tech for most of the game before getting homered by the refs (38 free throws for the Red Raiders to 17 for the Wolf Pack). And that Texas Tech team went to the Elite Eight. Nevada took it to overtime on the road. The Wolf Pack played plenty well against its best competition.
Barely beating Boise State twice is another way of saying going 2-0 against a fringe NCAA Tournament team. And I’m not sure Nevada should be demerited for making the Sweet 16 because it required some big second-half comebacks. It still made the Sweet 16.
But the biggest point worth making here is next year’s Wolf Pack won’t be the same as last year’s Wolf Pack. Next year’s Wolf Pack, the one getting the top-10 rankings, will be significantly better. Nevada lost one key player (Kendall Stephens) and added a McDonald’s All-American (Jordan Brown) and five quality transfers (Jazz Johnson, Trey Porter, Nisre Zouzoua, Corey Henson, Tre’Shawn Thurman). Not to mention Caleb Martin, Cody Martin and Jordan Caroline should be better and Lindsey Drew should be available for the postseason.
Nevada shored up its two weaknesses – depth and size – kept its high-end talent and retained one of college’s top coaches. Could the Wolf Pack lose in the first or second round of next year’s NCAA Tournament? Of course. The tournament is crazy as Nevada showed in March. But the Wolf Pack is a legit top-10 team in the nation entering next year. The hype is real. This team is scary good.
Weakness? There really isn’t one. Shooting could be a minor concern given the Wolf Pack lost Stephens and Hallice Cooke, who combined to hit 169 3-pointers at a 44.2 percent clip. But Caleb Martin, Jazz Johnson, Nisre Zouzoua and Corey Henson are all good shooters.
The only thing that can fell the Wolf Pack in my mind is ego. There are a lot of guys chasing that NBA dream. They can’t play selfishly. If they do, there might be trouble. Eric Musselman’s teams have been marked by their unselfishness, but those teams had seven or eight eligible players. This team will have 12, 10 of which are used to big minutes. They have to keep those egos in check and keep the chemistry good.
And I have about 20 more basketball questions to answer, so I better not get tired. But first, a little football.
It’s a lot harder to win in football than in basketball. You get two or three really good basketball players and you’re a national contender. That’s not how it works in football. Turnarounds take a lot longer, so let’s give Jay Norvell and staff some time to reach the standard set by Musselman and staff.
But, to be more specific, I’ve identified five keys for Group of 5 teams to have a special season.
1) An NFL-level quarterback
2) A top-40 defense that creates turnovers
3) Pro talent in the trenches
4) An “easy” schedule
5) Luck
The Wolf Pack doesn’t have all of those things this season, but that doesn’t mean it can’t get there. Let’s look at the last two conference titles Nevada has won (2005 and 2010).
2005
1) QB Jeff Rowe (made the NFL)
2) This defense wasn’t actually very good (but it was 44th in turnovers created)
3) Two “trench players” reached the NFL
4) Nevada’s non-conference opponents were 12-22
5) Fresno State was coming off a devastating loss to No. 1 USC prior to its game at Nevada, which the Wolf Pack won to clinch a share of the WAC title
2010
1) QB Colin Kaepernick (started in a Super Bowl)
2) Nevada ranked 31st in scoring defense and 45th in turnovers created
3) Three “trench players” reached the NFL
4) Nevada’s toughest non-conference game was against FCS foe Eastern Washington
5) Kyle Brotzman
So just do those five things and you’ll be good.
Given how Nevada has changed how it announces attendance – from actual attendance to tickets sold – it is hard to compare year over year totals. But since that change in 2012, Nevada’s average attendance in football has been:
2012: 23,432
2013: 24,939
2014: 23,862
2015: 22,170
2016: 18,500
2017: 16,722
So Nevada is coming off a program low since changing its formula (and it is probably a season low since moving to the FBS in 1992). I expect the number to go up next year. Boise State fans will sell out the Broncos’ game at Mackay, and Fresno State and Oregon State will travel well to Reno. I’d guess the season-ticket base will go down – some fans might shift their tickets from football to basketball – but the per-game total will increase given some opposing team fans traveling for games.
16.6 percent. There are 12 MW coaches so an even split would be an 8.3 percent chance. I'll double it up to 16.6 percent. Coach of the year awards usually go to guys who had teams ranked low in a preseason poll but high in the end-of-the-season standings. Nevada will be picked to finish third or fourth in the MW West Division standings. If the Wolf Pack finishes first, Norvell will almost certainly win the award.
It's an expectations things. If you go to Charlie Palmer at the GSR and the Western Village steakhouse and get the same meal, you'd probably think the Western Village meal was better because your expectations were lower entering the night. Same thing with coaching awards. And both of those steakhouses are excellent by the way.
Nevada’s schedule from easiest game to hardest game.
1. vs. Portland State
2. at San Jose State
3. at Hawaii
4. at Air Force
5. at UNLV
6. vs. Oregon State
7. vs. Colorado State
8. at Toledo
9. vs. San Diego State
10. vs. Fresno State
11. at Vanderbilt
12. vs. Boise State
That's a lot of winnable road games.
Nevada has a pretty veteran defense, especially in the back seven, so I wouldn’t expect too many newcomers to get significant playing time in that area. But the front line will be packed with junior-college additions expected to provide an immediate impact. Guys like Kaleb Meder, Tristan Nichols, Kevin Scott and Fanon Vines will vie for lots of playing time. They’re all JC linemen. The one back seven guy to keep an eye out for its prep cornerback Jaden Dedman.
Despite moving to linebacker, Malik Reed will get plenty of third-down pass-rushing chances in addition to being a blitzer in other situations. The over/under is set at 8.5 sacks.
The root cause is tradeouts. Nevada used to do a ton of tradeouts, which it has cut down on over the last decade. (A tradeout is an exchange of free season tickets to a company or organization for free goods or services). Nevada still does a significant amount of tradeouts, so pinpointing the actual number of season-ticket holders is tough.
In my Q&A with AD Doug Knuth last year, he said the Wolf Pack had "just about 4,000 paid season-ticket holders and in the heyday, in the Mark Fox era, when we had the biggest revenue, we had 6,500 paid season-ticket holders." So, that's roughly 4,000 paid ticket holders in 2016-17 with the total number of season-ticket holders at 5,049 (so about 21 percent was tradeouts). In 2007-08, Nevada had 9,768 total season-ticket holders but only 6,500 were paid (so about 33 percent were tradeouts). Both numbers are inflated by tradeouts, but more so 10 years ago.
I'd expect Nevada to sit around 7,300 season-ticket holders next season. If we use that inflation of 21 percent being tradeouts, that's about 5,800 paid ticket holders, which isn't too far off the 6,500 in the "hey day." Nevada is coming off two straight NCAA tournament appearances whereas it was coming of four straight prior to that 2007-08 season, so the Wolf Pack is actually ahead of pace compared to a decade ago.
I’ll set it at 3.5. One for winning the MW regular-season title, one for winning the MW Tournament title, one for reaching the Sweet 16 and one for reaching the Elite Eight.
I'll say 3.5. Look at the non-conference schedule below. I don't see any of those selling out. Maybe BYU since it's the season opener, but it's also on Election Day. UNLV and SDSU should sell out. Maybe New Mexico or Boise State, too.
You can find it right here.
Nov. 6: vs. BYU
Nov. 9: vs. Pacific
Nov. 16: vs. Arkansas Little Rock
Nov. 19: vs. Cal Baptist
Nov. 22: vs. Tulsa (at Las Vegas Invitational)
Nov. 23: vs. UMass or Southern Illinois (at Las Vegas Invitational)
Nov. 27: at Loyola Chicago
Dec. 1: at USC
Dec. 7: vs. Arizona State (at Staples Center)
Dec. 9: vs. Grand Canyon (at Talking Stick Resort Arena)
Dec. 15: vs. South Dakota State
That leaves two more games to be scheduled. I would guess one at home and one road/neutral.
Nevada’s average attendance next season will be 9,899. That is not a guess. I can see the future and that will be next year’s average attendance.
Sure, it is possible. Nevada scored a home-and-home with USC starting with the road game and could have scored a second home-and-home with a Power 5 opponent with the first game in Reno. No team would really want to play at Lawlor Events Center given the strength of Nevada's roster and its home record under Musselman (43-5 overall, 21-0 in non-conference), but some teams have the required fortitude to do so.
The best story line is the Nevada-Loyola Chicago game given it’s the Sweet 16 rematch, Sister Jean vs. Mariah Muss, etc. The best team Nevada will face is USC. The best player the Wolf Pack will play is South Dakota State’s Mike Daum. And the BYU home opener is the best game to start a season at Lawlor since 2003-04 when Nevada hosted Vermont, which went 22-9 and reached the NCAA Tournament. So lots of good options, but I’m most looking forward to Loyola Chicago.
Unlikely.
I would not rule it out.
So you’re looking at a team that pencils out like this:
PG: Lindsey Drew/Jazz Johnson
SG: Corey Henson
SF: Nisre Zouzoua
PF: Tre’Shawn Thurman/Vincent Lee
C: K.J. Hymes
That’s a solid team. Against the Wolf Pack’s schedule, that team probably goes 8-5 or 9-4 in non-conference and 12-6 or 13-5 in the MW. So let’s say 20 to 22 wins. Not bad.
Basketball. Football is the hardest sport to win in, and basketball already has a head start on baseball in terms of national success. If Nevada can keep Musselman, it will be a Top 25-caliber program for a long time. If he leaves, the Wolf Pack will be in position to hire another quality coach who can keep the team relevant.
Among mid-major basketball teams, Nevada is either first or second depending upon how you value Gonzaga, which isn’t really a mid-major anymore. I like Nevada better than Gonzaga. I wish they played each other next season (they won’t).
Last year’s team would have finished around .500 in conference play in those conference. This year’s team would probably finish third in the Big 12 and fourth in the ACC.
Jordan Brown probably doesn't sign with Nevada, instead of having more than 1,000 new season-ticket deposits the Wolf Pack sits at 400. And the team isn't being looked at as a preseason top-five team. Instead it is a preseason top-20 team. So quite a few things would have changed.
Yes, for two reasons. One, they should be healthier next year. Two, they should be more efficient. I can’t imagine the Martins will play as many minutes per game, so their pure totals could go down but they could be better, more valuable players on a per-minute basis.
Technically, you can go undefeated until you lose a game, but here is a list of college basketball teams that have finished the season undefeated the last 40 years.
_______________
The end. You might notice there is nothing in the line above since nobody has done it the last four decades. I don't think Nevada will do so, either. Only three teams have even finished the regular season undefeated since 1980, so that's really tough to do, too.
That looks like three questions to me, but:
1) Probably not. Sodexo runs that operation.
2) Probably not. And I just got upset thinking about how crammed the Mackay Stadium parking lot is going to be before games.
3) No. The Golden Knights play several hours away from Reno, so we don’t cover them and I only get media tickets to cover events.
San Diego State and New Mexico both have the talent to do so. UNLV might have an outside shot. Those are really the only three schools with a chance. More likely, the MW will be in the same situation as last season entering the MW Tournament – with Nevada having locked up an at-large spot and the conference hoping it loses in the tournament so the MW can send two teams to the dance.
Can’t you have top-value money and an empire? You don’t have to pick one or the other. Coach K makes darn near $9 million per year at Duke, so it’s not like he is sacrificing money to stay there. If Musselman gets an offer in the $3 million range from another school, Nevada is going to have to match it (or come close) and wave goodbye to the best basketball coach in school history.
He interviewed twice at Cal last offseason and I heard, but didn’t confirm, he got a strong offer (perhaps seven figures) from a school shortly after this year’s Sweet 16 run. There weren’t very many attractive jobs open this offseason, which helped Nevada’s cause. Next year should be a different story, especially if the Wolf Pack gets to the Elite Eight or Final Four. It will be pony up time then.
They measured at 6 foot, 4.75 inches without shoes and 6-6 with shoes. Since college basketball is typically played with shoes on (this was a recent rule change), calling them 6-6 is fine. I used whatever the height on the official roster is. Nevada calls the Martins 6-7, so I will, too. Many schools add an inch (Colin Kaepernick was listed at 6-6 at Nevada and 6-4 in the NFL). I can't imagine being upset enough to use five questions marks (?????) in your question about this.
The Kimchi Express was the worst team in The Basketball Tournament last season, a 16 seed that lost by 29 points in its first-round game (the most lopsided of any game in the first round). Presumably, the team didn’t want to be bad anymore, so it recruited some quality players, including three from Nevada – Marqueze Coleman, AJ West and Marcus Marshall.
Despite losing three key hitters, its Friday starter and its closer, Nevada will probably be picked to win the conference in the preseason poll. Coaches tend to go off the results from the year before. I would not call it a disappointment if Nevada doesn’t reach a Regional. The Wolf Pack had a successful season this year despite not reaching a Regional, but that is the obvious goal. Going 18 straight years without a Regional appearance is a long, long time. That streak needs to end.
One player on last year's roster did not finish the semester strong and is unlikely to be eligible next season, so that is the player who will leave to get Nevada down to the scholarship limit of 13. While I do know who the player is, I prefer not to be the one who does the announcing on a player leaving, so I’ll let it play out. But one of the reasons Nevada did add more players before the Martin twins made their decision is because they knew said player was in this position academically, so the Wolf Pack considered itself as only one over the scholarship limit this offseason.
Nevada retiring Nick Fazekas' number has nothing to do with the success or lack thereof of the basketball team. It has to do with the bachelor's degree of lack thereof in his possession. When he gets his degree, his number will be retired. I've just always found that odd considering the one Wolf Pack basketball player to have his number retired (Edgar Jones) doesn't have a degree. But it will happen in due time.
He would like to be. Every college basketball player would like to be. I appreciate Brown’s honestly there. But will it happen? Given how deep Nevada’s roster is, it will be hard for him to truly showcase all of his skills. He could take the Zach Collins route to the NBA. Collins was a McDonald’s All-American who played 17 minutes per game for national runner-up Gonzaga in 2016-17 en route to being a lottery pick. I think it’s more likely he’s at Nevada for two seasons, the first as a role player before blossoming into a star as a sophomore after the Martin twins, Jordan Caroline, et al. move on after this year.
I have no special insight into this question but I wanted to post it because the Wolf Pack does need to upgrade its halftime shows. If fans are paying $65 per home game via lower-bowl season tickets, Nevada needs to step up the halftime shows. Plenty of options out there. Dogs and frisbees. ZOOperstars. Beyoncé. Those all seem like reasonable asks.
If there is an easy path for Kevin Durant to win a basketball title, he will take it.
Knuth told me they will hold one before the football season starts, so put it on your calendar for some time in August. I'm going to buy a pink Wolf Pack jersey for the guy who left me this voicemail last January.
I filed a freedom of information request to the get the contract and will report what the contract states when I get it, but I was told by a source it was roughly $900,000 per year. So that’d be a seven-year, $6.3 million deal, which is solid. And between Scheels, the campus bookstore and Silver & Blue Outfitters, it seems like there are plenty of places to get Wolf Pack gear.
Game-worn stuff could be sold at the garage sell, although I would email Nevada's assistant athletic director for equipment operations Damien Garnett (dgarnett@unr.edu) for more details on your specific request.
Will do. I did text them the day after their decision asking for them to call me, but I didn't hear back. I'm sure they were busy. But if you're reading this Martin twins, please give me a call so I can ask Dirk the Daring's question.
I have written one story on the Martin twins every day since they were born. This streak began when I was 12 years old.
I asked Coach Musselman that last Thursay and he said they will re-evaluate Martin's foot when he gets back to Reno. It's probably not 100 percent, so the Wolf Pack will be cautious with it this offseason.
The Wolf Pack played 22 games away from Lawlor Events Center last season and I was at 19 of them. The only ones I didn't go to were at Pacific (I was at the Nevada football game in San Diego on the same night), at Hawaii (expensive trip for one game) and at Texas Tech (I've been to Lubbock before and am not going back).
So, I don't know how many more road games I could actually go to since I was basically at all of them last season. Credit to the RGJ for putting up the money to cover the team as it should be covered. But, this year, I don't think I'll be at any Nevada road basketball games. More on that as the season approaches.
Most fans want basketball coverage right now. We obviously track our metrics to see what people are and aren’t reading and a short story on Nevada basketball holding a youth camp is drawing as many or more page views as a feature on a Wolf Pack football or baseball player. People are currently obsessed with Nevada basketball, so that has been the focus of my coverag. But we’ll still have comprehensive coverage of Nevada football and my goal every year is to do at least one feature story on every sport on campus, so it’s not just all basketball even though that’s our focal point.
Yes. Kevin Durant was in position to attempt a block, but given the fact he didn't bother to block out somebody 6 inches shorter than him on that crucial free throw, he probably wouldn't have even jumped for the ball. All Smith had to do was put the ball off the glass and the game would have been over.
I texted Bill Nye (you know, The Science Guy) and he said it is physically baked on to the surface of the pan, similar to Velcro. Thanks for the answer, Bill.
New Mexico coach Paul Weir and I smoothed things over (he was mad at me because of my supposed hatred of American ideals). Rhode Island fans will feel silly in a couple of weeks (they are mad at me because they still think Nevada is playing at URI this season). But Fresno fans should hate me the most given how much I rag on the city.
He certainly has the money to buy a Bojangles franchise and put it in Reno. I know he’d have two daily customers in the Martin twins.
I see him going late second round. If he could have entered the draft out of high school, he probably would have gone late first round. The perils of having to go to school.
Congrats on your certification, but did you just call me overweight? Quoting Stephanie Tanner, "How rude!"
I am not holding anything but I am 45 inches off the ground. I have the highest vert in Reno, and that includes players on the Nevada basketball team.
The Wolf Pack has put a lot of effort into this area since Knuth took over as AD. He personally flew out to see all of the pro players as soon as he got the job and the addition of development staffer Zack Madonick, a Wolf Pack alum who played with a number of Nevada's current NFL players, also was done in part to help that cause.
Getting one $1 million alumni donation is tough. Nevada has gotten two of those in the last two years – one from Sessions, one from Don Weir – so the Wolf Pack is ahead of the game there. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Nevada got another big donation from a Nate Burleson, Joel Bitonio, Austin Corbett type in due time.
Considering both claim the mountain bluebird as their state bird, I’ll call it a tie.
I just need my beer to taste good, I don't need it to look good.
Looks like we checked in with 57 questions answered this week, a Mailbag record. Congratulations to all of us. The Mailbag has become one of my most read weekly features. There are three reasons for that.
1) Nevada basketball is good and people want to read about it.
2) Readers are giving me great questions to answer.
3) I’m awesome at answering questions (I couldn’t give all of the credit to the Wolf Pack and the readers).
I do enjoy the Mailbag. It’s my favorite thing to write every week even if it takes 4-5 hours to put together. I’ll keep doing it as long as I’m getting good questions and people are reading it. So it is up to the readers to make this a long-term feature. So far, so good. Go Yanni.