A new federal report delivers a dire warning about climate change and its disastrous impact on the United States.
It also provides the most detailed information yet about how the nation will have to conform if it hopes to survive these challenges.
And – even if fossil-fuel emissions are slashed – the report, called the National Climate Assessment, predicts communities will need to spend billions of dollars to prepare for the devastation that’s expected. That means hardening coastlines, rebuilding sewer systems and overhauling farming practices to protect against floods, wildfires and heat waves that are already happening across the nation.
The report is mandated by law every four years and produced by a team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member federal advisory committee. It details how global warming is harming each region of the United States and how it will impact different aspects of our daily lives.
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Frustrated by the failure of national leaders to take action on climate change, Pennsylvania Auditor General Eugene DePasquale said that he will compile a special report exploring how Pennsylvania is responding to the issue.
Sepideh Yalda, a Millersville University professor who teaches climate dynamics, said that the report is important for all Americans to read and understand.
“It really provides a targeted look at how climate change will impact our health, our economy, our food in ways that will matter to us, so it’s not just a scientific report filled with projections,” she said. “It also provides really powerful information about how we can mitigate these changes moving forward.”
Yalda was impressed with how well the report linked scientific data with real-world events.
Michael A. Davis, a Kutztown University associate professor who studies climate change, applauded those efforts as well.
He said that while the report confirms information the scientific community has recognized for some time, it effectively highlights the science behind some of the strange weather conditions communities like Berks County have experienced.
“We will be going from one extreme to the other down the road if this comes to pass,” Davis said. “We are already starting to see more and more of this scientific literature become validated over time.”
The report found that by 2035 the Northeast – the most densely populated region in the nation – is projected to be more than 3 degrees warmer on average than during the pre-industrial era.
That would be the largest increase in the contiguous United States and would occur as much as two decades before global average temperatures reach a similar milestone.
Coupled with some of the highest rates of ocean warming and sea level rise in the nation, the Northeast will experience changes to the environment and ecosystems that are increasing risks to its people, its traditions, its infrastructure and its economy, the report says.
Those risks include inland flooding from more intense rain events, surges from more severe coastal storms, extreme temperatures and episodes of poor air quality.
“The changing climate of the Northeast threatens the health and well-being of residents through environmental changes that lead to health-related impacts and costs, including additional deaths, emergency-room visits and hospitalizations, higher risk of infectious diseases, lower quality of life and increased costs associated with health-care utilization,” the report says.
Some of those changes already have begun.
Seasonal differences in temperature in the Northeast have decreased in recent years, as winters have warmed three times faster than summers, the report says. By the middle of this century, winters are projected to be milder still with fewer cold extremes. That will likely result in a shorter and less pronounced cold season with fewer frost days and a longer transition out of winter into the growing season.
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“We will be going from one extreme to the other down the road if this comes to pass.” – MICHAEL A. DAVIS, Kutztown University associate professor |
In rural areas, droughts and flooding can adversely affect ecosystem function, farm economic viability and land use, the report says.
Although projections of major floods remain ambiguous, more intense precipitation events have increased the risk of some types of inland floods, particularly in valleys, where people, infrastructure and agriculture tend to be concentrated.
In urban areas, the report says residents face multiple climate hazards including temperature extremes, episodes of poor air quality, coastal flooding and intense precipitation events that can lead to increased flooding of urban streams.
Those physical changes may lead to large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure, and sustaining communities may require significant investment and planning to provide emergency response efforts and long-term commitment to rebuilding and adapting infrastructure.
Time for action
Davis said that he hopes the report will sound an alarm for people outside the scientific community – particularly those with the power to change policy at the highest levels of government.
“We need to become more aggressive and ambitious dealing with carbon emissions,” he said. “We need to develop a strategy to reduce the amount of sea level rise impact on coastal communities. We need to find a way to preserve the economy of the future by planning for these extreme events. These are actions that we can and should be taking right now.”
Davis said that, unfortunately, he doubts that change is on its way. He said the rejection by President Donald Trump of the central conclusion of the report was upsetting but not necessarily surprising.
“I think that we have a president who doesn’t believe in climate science and, as a result, is trying to brush this off,” he said. “I tell people who want to take responsible environmental action that they need to vote for candidates who put climate science first.”
Yalda is more optimistic.
“The issue of climate change has become political, but I think we’re going to see some change there,” she said. “We have seen the creation of a Climate Action Caucus in Congress that is working on getting both Democratic and Republican representatives together to think about climate-impact solutions. It’s going to be a long road, but there are efforts taking place.”
She also believes that private business leaders and local government officials can start the process in their own communities. That could mean investing in renewable energy sources or implementing new design standards when building or replacing infrastructure to account for a changing climate.
“We have to have hope because once we lose that then we lose motivation to do the things that we can do right now,” Yalda said. “I believe we can make a change if we work together.”
Shifting attitudes
A majority of Pennsylvania voters say they want the government to take steps to address climate change, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released this spring.
The poll found that 62 percent of Pennsylvanians believe climate change already is creating problems and 67 percent believe that the state should be doing more to address the problems associated with global warming.
Only 5 percent of the respondents say that they don’t believe climate change is occurring at all.
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at F&M, said at the time the poll was released that the shift may reflect growing media coverage of the issue as well as increasing scientific data linking certain extreme weather events to climate change.
A majority of respondents also say that they want their elected leaders to take the issue seriously. The poll found that 67 percent of Pennsylvania voters say state leaders should be doing more to address the problems associated with climate change, with 30 percent saying the government should steer clear of the issue.
Contact Karen Shuey: 610-371-5081 or kshuey@readingeagle.com.
National Climate Assessment – Northeast by Reading_Eagle on Scribd
