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PolitiFact: Scott's assessment of Florida's economy a little too sunny

 
Florida Governor Rick Scott addresses a joint session of the Florida Legislature, Tuesday, 1/12/16, during his State of the State address.
Florida Governor Rick Scott addresses a joint session of the Florida Legislature, Tuesday, 1/12/16, during his State of the State address.
Published Jan. 15, 2016

The statement

"We have completely turned our economy around."

Gov. Rick Scott, Tuesday, in his State of the State address

The ruling

We compared from 2010, the year before Scott's first term started, to the most recent numbers available. We learned the state has performed better under certain measures than others.

Unemployment rate: In November 2015, the unemployment rate in Florida was 5 percent, the same as the national rate. That's the lowest Florida's rate has been since January 2008. November's rate is still a preliminary figure, but it's much lower than the 10.7 percent it was in December 2011.

Payroll employment per month: It's true the state has added jobs. The latest figures show that between December 2010 and November 2015, Florida added 1,011,800 private-sector jobs. But when you subtract the 27,300 government jobs that have been lost in that same span, the net change is 984,500 new jobs.

Per capita personal income: This statistic refers to how much income was earned per person in the state. The U.S. Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis, which measures income starting midyear, says that in 2009-10, income in Florida grew 2.2 percent. But then that growth slowed down each year. In the last fiscal year data available, 2012-13, that figure dropped by 0.1 percent.

Per capita real GDP: This measures all of the inflation-adjusted economic activity per person in Florida. In 2009-10, per capita real GDP dropped by 1 percent. In 2013-14, the latest year available, it was growing by 1.2 percent. That amounts to $38,664 per person in 2014, about $300 more than it was in 2010. Last year, Florida's per capita real GDP lagged the national average by more than $10,000.

Industrial production: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains a national index that measures the value of manufacturing output, compared to a "base" rate of 100, but Moody's Analytics maintains proprietary estimates for each state. In December 2010, this rate was 96.56 for Florida, and by November 2015 it was 105.93, moving ahead but slightly behind the national average.

The big takeaway: Florida's employment picture has improved, but many of the newly created jobs aren't necessarily paying very well.

There are other measures, of course, and they all can look at the picture from different angles. Florida's poverty rate in 2010 was 16 percent, for example, but after dropping for two years, it was up to 16.7 percent in 2014, almost 2 percentage points above the national average. The state's median household income has been dropping over the years, and currently lags the national average by about $6,000.

Economists told us that Florida is mirroring the United States in economic terms — the country is doing better, so Florida is doing better.

On top of that, Scott's claim doesn't reflect that Florida still has a way to go to top the state's previous historical growth. For example, the unemployment rate was as low as 3.1 percent in mid 2006.

"Floridians are just recovering back to where they were before," said Tara Sinclair, chief economist at Indeed and economics professor at George Washington University. "I don't think that's the American Dream, to struggle to get back to how things were."

Furthermore, Scott is taking credit for things that are mostly out of his control.

Experts reminded us that states are often affected by factors like shifting demographics, national trends and the global economy more than the policies of any one official or the Legislature.

We rate the statement Half True.

Edited for print. Read the full version at PolitiFact.com/florida.