While Donald Trump continues to expose himself for the penis that he is, we're going to expose this geographic penis today.
Previous states, in publishing order: ND/SD, AK/DE/ME/NH, HI/ID/NE, WV/NM/NV, UT/KS/WV, MS/IA, CT/OK/OR, KY, SC, LA, AL, CO, MN, WI, MD, MO, TN, AZ, IN, MA, WA, VA, NJ, NC, GA, MI (Part I), MI (Part II), OH (Part I), OH (Part II), PA, IL
DK user Tayya already did a great piece last July on a fair Cube Root map of Florida with 21 Republican seats, 16 Democratic seats, and 4 swing seats. I've already plugged those districts into the "worst case scenario" section.
But you know me. I don't like to be fair when it comes to states that have been blatantly rigged by the Republican Party. Florida is obviously no exception. So here is my Democratic gerrymander of Florida:
1st District (blue): Jeff Miller (R-Chumuckla). Pensacola and Milton. 64.9% McCain. Same district as in Tayya's map. Move along, folks. Nothing to see here. Safe R.
2d District (green): Open. Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Panama City. 72.2% McCain, the reddest district in the Sunshine State. Asshole Steve Southerland (R-Panama City) was tossed out of Congress last year, but he's seriously considering a return next year, depending on how the northern part of the state gets re-redistricted. He could run here without much trouble... if he has enough time away from lingerie parties or whatever. Safe R.
3d District (purple): Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee). Tallahassee, Marianna, and Jasper. 56.9% Obama. Safe D.
4th District (red): Open. T-shaped district that runs from Apalachicola to Sanderson and Lake City down to Inverness. 65.1% McCain. Safe R.
5th District (gold): Ander Crenshaw (R-Jacksonville). Jacksonville suburbs. 65.5% McCain. Safe R.
6th District (teal): Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville). Jacksonville proper. 61.1% Obama. 43.3% Black, which should be enough to satisfy the Florida Supreme Court. Safe D.
7th District (dark gray): Open. St. Augustine to Camp Blanding. 67.7% McCain. Would have been for Ron DeSantis, but he's running for the Senate now. Safe R, regardless.
8th District (slate blue): Ted Yoho (R-Gainesville). Ocala, Gainesville, and Palatka. 55.9% Obama. In this district, Yoho will go-go. More than like, he'll carpetbag to the 4th District, which includes a lot of his current district. Lean D.
9th District (cyan): Open. Everything between Ocala, Daytona Beach, and Orlando. 58% McCain. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Open. Daytona Beach, Flagler Beach, New Smyrna Beach, and DeLand. 54.1% Obama. Former rep Suzanne Kosmas (D-New Smyrna Beach) lives here and could go for an encore. Lean D with Kosmas, Tossup without Kosmas.
11th District (chartreuse): John Mica (R-Winter Park). All of Seminole County and a few precincts of northern Orlando. 51.7% McCain. Safe R.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Orlando and northwestern Orange County. 66% Obama. 57.7% Black/Hispanic. Daniel Webster (R-Winter Garden) lives here, but would never run here. He could go next door to the new 16th, but there is already a Republican incumbent who lives there... and it's a district that went narrowly for President Obama. Webster's 2010 opponent, Val Demings, is already looking to succeed Alan Grayson in this area in 2016. She would cruise in this cube root district. Safe D.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Orlando's southern outskirts. 56.9% Obama. 52.2% racial clusterfuck. Safe D.
14th District (olive): Open. Orlando, Kissimmee, and St. Cloud. 57.7% Obama. Grayson would have run here if he wasn't in the U.S. Senate primary. Safe D.
15th District (dark orange): Bill Posey (R-Rockledge). Titusville, Melbourne, and Cape Canaveral. 56.5% McCain. Safe R.
16th District (lime): Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) and/or Webster. Lakeland, Winter Haven, and Clermont. 51.7% Obama. No idea who would win the Republican nomination, but he would have a huge target on his back next November. Tossup.
17th District (dark slate blue): Rich Nugent (R-Spring Hill). The remainder of Polk County up to Bushnell and Brooksville. 59.6% McCain. Nugent's home is drawn just outside of these borders, but he would have to run here because his home is in a purple district. Safe R.
18th District (yellow): Open. Bayonet Point, Dade City, Zephyrhills. 50-50. McCain won this district by a handful of votes. Tossup
19th District (yellow green): Open. Baconmander of Land O' Lakes and the immediate Tampa suburbs. 50.5% Obama. Tossup.
20th District (pink): Kathy Castor (D-Tampa). Tampa. 65.6% Obama. 58% Hispanic/Black. If a minority-majority Tampa district weren't necessary, you could unpack Tampa and turn both the 19th and 20th into safe 58% Obama districts. Safe D.
21st District (maroon): Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor). Clearwater. 52.2% Obama. Another incumbent Republican in danger during a presidential year. Tossup.
22d District (sienna): Open. St. Petersburg. 56.1% Obama. With David Jolly out of the picture to run for the Senate, this would be the prime turf for the political return of Charlie Crist (R Ind. D-St. Petersburg), provided that he wins the Democratic nomination. Safe D with Crist, Lean D with Some Dude Democrat.
23d District (aquamarine): Open. Eastern Hillsborough County down to Arcadia. 58.7% McCain. Safe R.
24th District (indigo): Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota). Bradenton and Sarasota. 51% Obama. Buchanan is in trouble, too. Tossup.
25th District (pale violet red): Open. Venice, Port Charlotte, and North Fort Myers. 54.6% McCain. Safe R.
26th District (gray): Curt Clawson (R-Bonita Springs). Cape Coral and Fort Myers. 55.6% McCain. Safe R.
27th District (spring green): Open. Naples and the western portion of Lake Okeechobee. 59.2% McCain. Safe R.
28th District (plum): Tom Rooney (R-Okeechobee). Sebring and Vero Beach. 55.1% McCain. Safe R.
29th District (dark sea green): Open. Fort Pierce, Port St. Lucie, and the western 2/3 of Palm Beach County. 52.9% Obama. Tossup.
30th District (light coral): Open. West Palm Beach and Lake Worth. 68.9% Obama. 56.1% Hispanic/Black. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) lives here, but she wouldn't run here. She would move a mile or so east to run in the new 31st, leaving this one for a minority pickup. Safe D.
31st District (khaki): Frankel. Wellington and the coast of Palm Beach County. 57.1% Obama. With Patrick Murphy leaving this House seat to run for the Senate, Frankel can cruise here. Safe D.
32d District (orange red): Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton). Boca Raton, Delray Beach, and Pompano Beach. 59.3% Obama. Safe D.
33d District (royal blue): Alcee Hastings (D-Miramar). Pompano Beach Highlands to Plantation. 80.7% Obama. 50.4% Black. Although Hastings doesn't live in this district, he technically doesn't live in his current district, either. But he would run here, and the district would keep sending him to Washington. Safe D.
34th District (lime green): Our beloved DNC chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Coral Springs and the western half of Broward County. 64.1% Obama. Safe D.
35th District (dark orchid): Open. Davie, Miramar, and Pembroke Pines. 66.3% Obama. 57.8% Hispanic/Black. Safe D.
36th District (orange): Open. Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, and northeastern Miami-Dade County. 68.3% Obama. 55.2% Hispanic/Black. Safe D.
37th District (dodger blue): Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens). North Miami, North Miami Beach, and Country Club. 82.6% Obama. 51.4% Black and 42.1% Hispanic. Having a 93.5% minority district would probably set me up for a lawsuit, accusing me of packing. This is not my fault. The southern tip of Florida is over 75% minority, and the only way you can bring these districts down to ~50% minority is to draw Texas-style fajita strips into central Florida. (We'll get to that state's fajita strips in a couple of weeks.) And besides, there is no way to draw a Black-majority district entirely within Miami-Dade County without also including a large number of Hispanic citizens. Safe D.
38th District (medium aquamarine): Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) and/or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami). Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Doral, Fountainbleu, and Westchester. 62.9% McCain. 89.2% Hispanic. Another potential lawsuit district. Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen would likely fight over this district, as the rest of the Miami districts tilt Democratic. With Ros-Lehtinen being more moderate, she could take a chance on the 39th District. Safe R no matter who gets the Republican nomination.
39th District (moccasin): Open or Ros-Lehtinen. Miami, Hialeah, and Key Biscayne. 51.4% Obama. 77.2% Hispanic. Has about the same PVI as Ros-Lehtinen's current district, so she might feel that she might have a successful run here. Call it a Lean R with Ros-Lehtinen, Tossup without Ros-Lehtinen.
40th District (firebrick): Carlos Curbelo (R-Kendall). South Miami, Coral Gables, Palmetto Bay, and The Crossings. 53.3% Obama. 65.7% Hispanic. Curbelo is already vulnerable in his current district, but he would be in danger in this district, which is a couple of points to the left of the state and will continue to inch leftward as the years go by. Tossup.
41st District (light steel blue): Open. Key West, The Everglades, Homestead, and Cutler Ridge. 55.7% Obama. 59.4% Hispanic. Lean D.
So my map would give us 2 more bankable seats than Tayya's map and put another 4 seats in play. A possible 26-15 Democratic advantage, should everything work out right.
43 Electoral Votes: Tossup, of course!
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 187 (added FL-3, FL-6, FL-12, FL-13, FL-14, FL-20, FL-22, FL-30, FL-31, FL-32, FL-33, FL-34, FL-35, FL-36, FL-37)
Lean D: 83 (added FL-8, FL-10, FL-41)
Tossup: 50 (added FL-16, FL-18, FL-19, FL-21, FL-24, FL-29, FL-39, FL-40)
Lean R: 8
Safe R: 168 (added FL-1, FL-2, FL-4, FL-5, FL-7, FL-9, FL-11, FL-15, FL-17, FL-23, FL-25, FL-26, FL-27, FL-28, FL-38)
Total: 270 D, 50 Toss, 176 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 163 (added FL-3, FL-6, FL-11, FL-18, FL-19, FL-30, FL-31, FL-32, FL-33, FL-34, FL-35, FL-36, FL-37)
Lean D: 56 (added FL-12, FL-13, FL-41)
Tossup: 74 (added FL-9, FL-20, FL-24, FL-38)
Lean R: 20 (added FL-4, FL-26, FL-27)
Safe R: 183 (added FL-1, FL-2, FL-5, FL-7, FL-8, FL-10, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-17, FL-21, FL-22, FL-23, FL-25, FL-28, FL-29, FL-39, FL-40)
Total: 219 D, 74 Toss, 203 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), IL (30), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 139
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), PA (30), VA (20), WI (14) = 133
Tossup: CO (13), FL (43), GA (23), MO (15), NC (23), NE (1), OH (27) = 145
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 272 D, 145 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), IL (30), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), NJ (21), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 139
Lean D: ME (1), MI (24), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), PA (30), WI (14) = 96
Tossup: CO (13), FL (43), IA (9), MO (15), NC (23), NV (8), OH (27), VA (20) = 158
Lean R: AZ (16), GA (23), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 72
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 235 D, 158 Toss, 197 R