Two thunderclaps sounded over the Indo-Pacific last week, geopolitics neatly mimicking the spell of unsettling weather that has been witnessed by the region lately. Washington, London and Canberra announced a new security arrangement around Australia, to equip it with stealthy nuclear-powered submarines and long-range missiles to shore up its security vis-a-vis China. The second development had been better anticipated: China announced that it was formally applying to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the pact that emerged in 2018 from the potentially game-changing but stillborn TPP.

The first event crystallised a response to anxieties about China's growing power, including its military modernisation plans, assertiveness over claims in the South and East China seas and its alleged political interference campaigns. The second development presents a tantalising prospect: China seeking to be part of a pro-trade grouping that also involves Australia, Japan and Canada - three CPTPP members with which China has had recurrent differences. The US is expected to remain conspicuously absent in the grouping, with no sign yet that it will rejoin after former president Donald Trump pulled out of the TPP in 2017. This means China, already the most significant economic partner for most Asia-Pacific nations, could be the largest and most consequential CPTPP member if it does secure entry.