U.S. Senate
In this deeply conservative state, Senator Thad Cochran, a Republican, is expected to win handily against Travis Childers, a Democratic former congressman, but that ho-hum story line conceals unpredictable currents in Mississippi politics.
Mr. Cochran’s appeal to voters can make him sound like a pro-government candidate — hardly the preferred stance for Southern conservatives in the Tea Party era. With 36 years’ seniority in the Senate and a seat on the powerful Appropriations Committee, Mr. Cochran has campaigned as the candidate who has brought federal spending to Mississippi, and will continue to do so.
Mr. Childers, meanwhile, trumpets the support he has received from National Right to Life, the National Rifle Association and the United States Chamber of Commerce.
But the general election is unlikely to match the drama of the Republican primary, when Mr. Cochran narrowly survived a political near-death experience. Chris McDaniel, a state senator, challenged Mr. Cochran from the right, sharply questioning the senator’s conservatism, blaming him for excessive spending and calling him a creature of Washington.
Mr. McDaniel finished barely ahead in the initial primary vote, just under 50 percent, forcing a runoff. Mr. Cochran then turned to an unexpected force to save him: black voters.
African-Americans are 37 percent of Mississippi’s population, the highest of any state, but they usually vote Democratic, so they have little sway under the Republican dominance of recent years. The senator urged them to cross party lines and vote in the Republican primary, arguing, in essence, that he might not be their cup of tea, but they would like Mr. McDaniel even less — a strategy the challenger called a betrayal of the party.
It worked. Black voters turned out in unusually large numbers, and Mr. Cochran barely won the runoff.
What the outcome means for the state’s political future is unclear. While neighboring states have become more Republican in recent years, Mississippi has not. President Obama lost there by 11.5 percentage points in 2012, but it was one of just six states where he performed better than he had in 2008.