More rain forecast in a wet December

Don’t pack up those rain coats for the winter just yet; another day-long deluge is expected to drench the area, beginning Wednesday evening.

Area forecasters say residents should expect at least two more inches of precipitation throughout an already rain-soaked region.

The National Weather Service is forecasting a 100 percent chance of rain Thursday as the front promises to wreak havoc on those already soaked Christmas decorations.

Usually this part of Florida receives only about 2.5 inches of rain in the entire month of December. Gainesville has already notched 6.03 inches in just 16 days. The December record is 9.6 inches set in 1997.

Marion has logged 7.92 inches in the first 16 days of December. The monthly record is 13.79 inches set in 1939, according to weather data dating back 150 years.

Matt Zibura, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Jacksonville, said the excessive December rain is due “to a very active jet stream” that brings fronts off the Pacific Ocean onto the California coast. Those fronts then race across the lower 48 states.

North Central Florida received five inches of rain or more in 24 hours last Friday and Saturday. Some areas in Alachua County and Marion County, which is larger than Rhode Island, received more than 7 inches.

Forecasters predict that the new front will bring a minimum of two inches to Alachua and Marion counties from Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

“There will be isolated areas that could receive even more rain,” Zibura noted.

Preston Bowlin, Marion County’s emergency management director, said his agency is keeping an eye on many retention ponds, lakes and low-lying areas for rising water.

Bowlin said the northwest part of Marion County, especially in the area of 100th Avenue Road, just south of County Road 316, has been a problem area when it comes to flooding.

There has been 60.01 inches of rain so far this year at the city of Ocala Water Treatment Plant, the official Marion County gauge just off Southeast 36th Avenue. That is 10.21 inches above normal for the year. So far in December, Ocala has recorded 7.92 inches, nearly six times more than the 1.35 inch average for the first 16 days of the month.

During the past 24 months, Ocala has received 121.92 inches of rain. That is 21.32 inches above normal for that time period

It also has been a wet year in Gainesville, which has received 57.63 inches of rain so far this year at the Gainesville Regional Airport, the official recording station for Alachua County. That is 10.3 inches above normal for the year.

So far in December, Gainesville has recorded 6.03 inches, nearly five times as much as the 1.27 average for the first 16 days of the month.

During the past 24 months, Gainesville has received 128.94 inches of rain. That is 34.28 inches above normal for that time period.

Rain totals can fluctuate throughout Alachua and Marion counties and are often different than what is recorded at the official reporting stations.

National, state and local experts have said that an emerging El Niño usually equates to a warmer, wetter winter in this part of Florida. And a strong El Niño patterns can bring tornado-producing thunderstorms in January and February and severe spring flooding in this region.

There was a strong El Niño in early 1998 when a tornado outbreak erupted and killed dozens in Orlando and Daytona Beach. That year, record March flooding gave way to severe spring drought. By Memorial Day, Florida was dealing with one of the worst wildfires in the state’s history.

A strong El Niño in 2007 was in place during the “Ground Hog Day Tornado” that blasted through Lady Lake, killing eight people, and then slammed Lake Mack in northern Lake County, killing 13 more.

The most recent rain forecast comes after Climate Central, a national think tank, released a study that concludes rising global temperatures lead to higher amounts of rainfall.

Of 2,800 weather stations analyzed by Climate Central, 133 in 21 states saw record rainfall this year and 685 others recorded totals that were among the top 10 on record.

The report states that “2018 is already the fifth-wettest year in the contiguous United States since record-keeping began.” It explains that “warmer air holds more water: on average, when the atmosphere gets 1 degree hotter, it can carry 4 percent more moisture.”

“The Southeast, Northeast, and upper Midwest have seen the greatest increases in heavy rainfall events since 1958,” the report notes. “Earlier analysis by Climate Central showed that 42 of the 48 states in the contiguous United States will see increased runoff risks from heavy rain by 2050.”

Joe Callahan can be reached at 867-4113 or at joe.callahan@starbanner. Follow him on Twitter @JoeOcalaNews.