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NFL Mock Draft 2018: 1st-Round Projections and Riskiest Prospects

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBAX.com LogoNational NBA Featured ColumnistApril 20, 2018

Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen warms up at the 2018 NFL Scouting Combine on Saturday, March 3, 2018, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Gregory Payan)
Gregory Payan/Associated Press

The 2018 NFL draft is close enough for commissioner Roger Goodell and his flock of boo birds to start warming up their vocal cords.

Starting Thursday April 26, all 32 teams will have the opportunity to dip into the incoming talent pool and potentially snag some difference-makers. But some of the highest upsides are often attached to serious risks, and this year's crop is no different.

After running through a one-round mock, we'll highlight three of the riskiest prospects on the draft board.

              

2018 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

3. New York Jets (from Colts): Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

4. Cleveland Browns (from Texans): Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

5. Denver Broncos: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

6. Indianapolis Colts (from Jets): Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

8. Chicago Bears: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

9. San Francisco 49ers: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

10. Oakland Raiders: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

11. Miami Dolphins: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

12. Buffalo Bills (from Bengals): Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

13. Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington

14. Green Bay Packers: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

15. Arizona Cardinals: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

16. Baltimore Ravens: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Derwin James, S, Florida State

18. Seattle Seahawks: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College

19. Dallas Cowboys: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

20. Detroit Lions: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Bills): James Daniels, C/G, Iowa

22. Buffalo Bills (from Chiefs): Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

23. New England Patriots (from Rams): Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

24. Carolina Panthers: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

25. Tennessee Titans: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

26. Atlanta Falcons: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

27. New Orleans Saints: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

30. Minnesota Vikings: Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

31. New England Patriots: Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

32. Philadelphia Eagles: Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

                    

Riskiest Prospects

Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The physical tools speak for themselves. Josh Allen is big, athletic and mobile. He's also been gifted with an arm that doubles as a rocket launcher.

NFL Network's Mike Mayock dubbed Allen the "biggest-arm quarterback" since JaMarcus Russell, via NFL.com's Chris Wesseling. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller went a step further and called Allen's cannon "the strongest I've ever seen."

In other words, it isn't hard to figure out why Allen is possibly in play for the first overall pick.

But betting that big on Allen means wagering on potential and not production. He was a 56.2 percent passer at Wyoming. He played three Power Five opponents in college, lost to all three and managed only one touchdown against eight interceptions in those games.

He could still be a star with the right seasoning. But issues with mechanics and accuracy have derailed physically gifted prospects before.

                  

Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

It's an objective bummer to put Maurice Hurst on this list. He's not on here for character concerns or disconcerting stats. In fact, he might be the best 3 technique in this class, as the consensus All-American tallied 59 tackles (13.5 for loss) and five sacks this past season.

Hurst is listed because he was red-flagged at the combine with a heart condition and left before doing any drills. He was cleared in time to participate in Michigan's pro day, but there's no telling what the prior discovery will do to his stock.

It's unfortunate, because if his heart wasn't a point of conversation, his elite play would be the focus.

While he's a bit undersized for the interior, he has the quickness, agility and motor to make up for it. Pro Football Focus has never seen an interior defender grade higher than Hurst did in 2017. If his health holds up, he could be a disruptive force for a long time.

              

Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Oklahoma

Son of the late Orlando "Zeus" Brown, who played 11 seasons in the NFL, Orlando Jr. looks the part of a big-league bulldozer. He's big even for these standards, listed at 6'7", 345 pounds.

He's also an accomplished lineman. He made 40 consecutive starts for the Sooners, earning Freshman All-American, second-team All-American and first-team consensus All-American honors over three consecutive seasons. He was dubbed the "baddest offensive lineman" in college football Jason King in a November article on Bleacher Report, which noted at least one mock had him in the top 10.

Then, the combine came, and Brown disappointed perhaps like no one had disappointed before him. He tested worst among offensive linemen in the 40-yard dash (5.85 seconds) bench press (14 reps), vertical jump (19.5") and broad jump (6'10"), leading scouts to give him a longer, more critical look.

"Not only will NFL evaluators go back to Brown's tape to see what they may have missed, but they'll now also try to avoid looking at that tape with a jaundiced eye," Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar wrote. "Brown's performance at the bottom of his positional group in so many drills shows he was not prepared to participate in the most important testing event of his young life."

In other words, discipline can be tacked on to the question marks already surrounding Brown's agility and quickness. There's still a wealth of talent here, but he's not the surefire prospect he seemed just a few months back.

                    

Statistics used courtesy of Sports-Reference and ESPN.