College Football Teams with Absurdly Weak Nonconference Schedules

Feel free to pencil the Oregon Ducks in for a 3-0 start to the 2018 college football season, because they have one of the weakest nonconference schedules imaginable.

They aren't alone on the cream-puff carousel, though. Wisconsin is the Big Ten's biggest offender, but that league is loaded with teams who aren't even trying to challenge themselves in early September. And Arkansas somehow managed to put together a four-game nonconference slate during which its players may not even break a sweat.

To earn a spot in the top 10 on this list, every opponent on a team's nonconference schedule must be ranked outside the top 50 in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). And as it turns out, there are a dozen teams that don't play any games against opponents in the top 62.

Rankings are based on collective strength of each team's nonconference slate.

Alabama Crimson Tide
vs. Louisville (in Orlando), vs. Arkansas State, vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, vs. The Citadel

It's common for Alabama to face three cupcakes in nonconference play, but the Crimson Tide typically at least face one quality foe in the season opener. Three years ago, it was Wisconsin. The year after that, they began the year against USC. Last season was the huge showdown with Florida State. Louisville, though? It's a stiffer test than awaits any team in this top 10, but it's a weak start by 'Bama standards.

Georgia Bulldogs
vs. Austin Peay, vs. Middle Tennessee, vs. Massachusetts, vs. Georgia Tech

It's highly unlikely that a nonconference loss will be what keeps Georgia from getting back to the national championship. The Bulldogs play four home games outside of the SEC schedule, and three of them should be over by halftime. The only moderate challenge is the annual showdown with Georgia Tech, but UGA won at GT by a 31-point margin last year.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
vs. New Mexico State, vs. Fresno State, vs. Miami (Ohio)

Five Big Ten teams landed in the top 10, and there's a strong case to be made that Minnesota should be the league's sixth representative, as the Golden Gophers neither leave home nor face a Power Five squad. However, Fresno State ought to be one of the better Group of Five teams this season, and Miami (Ohio) is a stronger second-weakest opponent than those in our top 10.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
vs. Missouri State, vs. South Alabama, vs. Boise State

Factor in the first two Big 12 games—vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas—and there's a great chance Oklahoma State enters October with a 5-0 record. The first two games against Missouri State and South Alabama are about as easy as it gets. The Boise State battle is much more of a question mark, though, and more than enough to keep the Cowboys out of the top 10.

Texas State Bobcats
at Rutgers, vs. Texas Southern, at UTSA, vs. New Mexico State

This schedule consists of one FCS school, two of the 20 worst FBS teams and one game against possibly the worst Power Five team. If Texas, Texas A&M or Texas Christian had this schedule, it'd be a lock for four wins. But because Texas State isn't good and may well lose three of these four games, it would feel wrong to call it one of the easiest schedules.

Sept. 1: vs. Richmond [FCS school]
Sept. 8: at Indiana [FPI: 63]
Sept. 15: vs. Ohio [FPI: 75]
Nov. 10: vs. Liberty [FPI: 117]

Virginia is probably going to be the worst team in the ACC this season. Part of that is because this league has bowl potential from top to bottom, but a bigger part is UVA's need to replace a bunch of key players from a 6-7 team.

The Cavaliers lost their starting quarterback (Kurt Benkert), two of the three best receivers and more than half of the starting offensive line. They also lost defensive stars Micah Kiser and Quin Blanding. And it's not like this team was firing on all cylinders at the end of last season. The Wahoos lost six of their final seven games and were outscored 249 to 120.

The good news is Virginia also has the easiest nonconference schedule among ACC teams, so it might only need to go 2-6 in league play to become bowl-eligible. The home games against Richmond and Liberty should be wins at least nine out of 10 times. And while the matchup with Ohio isn't a guaranteed W, Virginia will certainly be favored in that one, too.

The road game against Indiana is the toughest challenge awaiting any team in our top 10. However, when your toughest battle in a four-game nonconference schedule is against a team that has finished 10 consecutive seasons with a sub-.500 record, it's not exactly a gauntlet.

Sept. 1: vs. Kent State [FPI: 129]
Sept. 8: vs. Western Illinois [FCS school]
Sept. 15: vs. South Florida (in Chicago) [FPI: 65]

Illinois is currently one of the worst Power Five teams. It has been more than a decade since the Illini last won more than six regular-season games (2007), and they will enter the 2018 season opener on a 10-game losing streak dating back to last September. We certainly can't fault them for putting together a cream-puff nonconference schedule in order to avoid a winless campaign.

Nevertheless, this is the weakest two-week start in the entire country. Lovie Smith's squad gets back-to-back games against a middle-of-the-pack FCS school followed by the worst FBS team not named UTEP. Unless the Illini got drastically worse during the offseason, they should win both of those games by multiple touchdowns.

The Week 3 battle with South Florida is a different story.

The Bulls will likely be taking a big step backward after losing Quinton Flowers, D'Ernest Johnson, Darius Tice and Marquez Valdes-Scantling from their high-octane offense. But they smoked the Illini 47-23 in South Florida last year and should at least be able to give them a run for their money this time around.

Sept. 1: vs. Nicholls State [FCS school]
Sept. 8: at Central Michigan [FPI: 108]
Sept. 15: vs. Rutgers [FPI: 67]

If there's any Power Five team that desperately needs to put together a weak nonconference schedule just to experience the occasional victory, it's Kansas. 

Dating back to 2010, the Jayhawks are 4-67 (5.6 winning percentage) in Big 12 play. But they are 11-14 (44.0 percent) in nonconference play during that same span, thanks to a healthy supply of FCS and Group of Five foes.

So, per usual, Kansas has put together a three-game slate that would result in a trio of blowout victories for any preseason AP Top 25 team.

Will the Jayhawks win any of these games, though?

They open the season against Nicholls State. In most cases, it's safe to assume that a Power Five team will beat an FCS school. But Kansas lost to North Dakota State in 2010 and to South Dakota State in 2015, and Nicholls State darn near messed around and won a game against Texas A&M last September. Kansas should win, but don't bet your life savings on it.

This past season, Kansas lost a home game against Central Michigan by a score of 45-27. This year, it needs to play at CMU instead, making a loss even more likely.

And in a Week 3 game that isn't exactly earmarked for prime-time national television, the Jayhawks will host Rutgers in a rematch of their last nonconference game against a Power Five team. Kansas lost at Rutgers by a 13-point margin in 2015, and it's hoping to avenge that L this year.

Sept. 1: vs. Akron [FPI: 109]
Sept. 8: vs. Colorado [FPI: 78]
Sept. 15: vs. Troy [FPI: 96]

As was the case for P.J. Fleck last year in his transition from Western Michigan to Minnesota, Scott Frost has been gifted quite the cushy start at Nebraska.

Last year, the Cornhuskers had a brutal nonconference schedule. The road game against Oregon was the obvious challenge, but home games against Arkansas State and Northern Illinois—Group of Five teams who have combined for 13 bowl appearances in the last seven years—were no picnic. They went 1-2 with all three games decided by a one-possession margin.

It should be much smoother sailing in September 2018.

Akron has lost its last five games against Power Five schools by a combined score of 212-34. Troy won 21 games over the past two seasons, but it lost starting quarterback Brandon Silvers and more than half of the primary starters from last year's defense. And Colorado is almost certainly going to be worse than last year after losing all four of its leaders in yards from scrimmage—Phillip Lindsay, Devin Ross, Bryce Bobo and Shay Fields.

Even though Nebraska has a quarterback controversy to sort out in fall camp, it should have little difficulty getting to the start of Big Ten play with a 3-0 record.

Sept. 1: vs. Texas State [FPI: 125]
Sept. 15: at Kansas [FPI: 86]
Sept. 22: vs. Buffalo [FPI: 93]

For the first time since 2003, Rutgers did not schedule a single game against a non-FBS opponent. Kudos to the Scarlet Knights for taking a break from beating up on Howard, Norfolk State or Morgan State every September.

And yet, on the whole, their nonconference schedule is about as weak as it has ever been.

After back-to-back season openers against Washington, Rutgers will get the 2018 campaign started with a home game against Texas State, which is only marginally more challenging than an FCS opponent would be. In their last three games against Power Five schools, the Bobcats were outscored 138-22, the closest of which was a 37-3 loss to Colorado last year. The Scarlet Knights might be bad by Big Ten standards, but they should destroy Texas State.

In Week 2, Rutgers has an early conference matchup in a near-impossible road game against Ohio State.

It will look to soften that blow with two more nonconference cupcakes against Kansas and Buffalo. It's a road game against the Jayhawks, and ESPN's FPI is underselling just how good Buffalo's offense might be. Neither game will be as simple as the first one. But Rutgers and Oregon are the only teams who don't play a single nonconference game against teams in the top 85 of the FPI.

The Scarlet Knights aren't guaranteed to go 3-0 in nonconference play, but they should.

Don't worry, though. They'll make up for this weak start with one hell of a November gauntlet. Rutgers closes out the regular season with four straight against Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State.

Sept. 1: at Florida International [FPI: 113]
Sept. 8: vs. Virginia [FPI: 71]
Sept. 15: vs. Ball State [FPI: 121]

Well, what do you know? Here's yet another Big Ten team easing its way into conference play with a trio of cupcakes.

For the third time in four seasons, Indiana will play an early September game against Florida International.

The two previous contests were much closer than they should have been. In 2015, the Panthers took a three-point lead early in the fourth quarter, only for the Hoosiers to score 17 unanswered for a 36-22 win. It was a similar story in 2016 when Indiana erased a one-point deficit with a 22-point fourth quarter. And FIU is better now under Butch Davis than it was in those previous seasons, so perhaps there will at least be some drama in one of these games.

After that, Indiana will host Virginia in what most would agree is a battle between two of the 10 worst Power Five teams in the country. Barring injury between now and Sept. 8, the Hoosiers should be favored by at least a touchdown against the rebuilding Cavaliers.

Don't be shocked if Ball State is actually the most challenging nonconference game for the Hoosiers, even though it's at home against a team that ESPN's FPI says should be among the 10 worst in the nation. The Cardinals went 2-10 last season, but a litany of injuries was largely to blame for their shortcomings. If they can stay healthy this time around, they'll put up a fight.

Still, we're talking about a schedule against which any team with bowl aspirations should go 3-0 without much difficulty.

Sept. 1: at Wyoming [FPI: 85]
Sept. 8: vs. San Jose State [FPI: 118]
Sept. 15: vs. Eastern Washington [FCS school]

At this point, it's safe to assume that Washington State always has one of the weakest nonconference schedules in the country.

Including this season, only three of the Cougars' last 24 nonconference games came against Power Five schools—two of which were the home-and-home series with Rutgers in 2015 and 2016. Aside from the road game against Auburn to open the 2013 season, Washington State's nonconference diet has almost entirely consisted of the Mountain West Conference and non-FBS schools.

That's precisely what the Cougars have on the docket for the first half of this September.

The biggest challenge, by far, is the road game against Wyoming. And that isn't saying much, considering the Cowboys just lost their starting quarterback (Josh Allen) as the No. 7 pick in the NFL draft. Wyoming should be great on defense, and playing at this altitude is always a challenge for the road team. However, Wyoming might have one of the five worst offenses in the nation, so Mike Leach's club should only need two or three touchdowns to win.

After that, it's back home for an easy one against San Jose State and a quest for revenge against Eastern Washington. The Cougars lost their 2016 season opener against EWU, but they should be better prepared for the Eagles this time around.

Even with the presumed 3-0 start, getting to six wins will be a challenge for Washington State. Should the Cougars pick up an L in one of these first three games, they can just about kiss bowl eligibility goodbye.

Sept. 1: vs. Western Kentucky [FPI: 114]
Sept. 8: vs. New Mexico [FPI: 116]
Sept. 15: vs. BYU [FPI: 79]

Wisconsin went 12-0 during the regular season last year, but it didn't have much of a case for a spot in the College Football Playoff after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. The reason for that was a lackluster nonconference schedule, consisting of home games against Utah State and Florida Atlantic and a road game against BYU.

But all three of those games were bigger challenges than anything the Badgers will face until the start of Big Ten play this year.

In both 2014 and 2016, Wisconsin opened the season against LSU. The year in between, the Badgers had a Week 1 showdown with Alabama in Texas.

This year, they'll get the party started with...a home game against Western Kentucky? Really? And that's not even the worst opponent they face? Woof.

The good news is their conference schedule is much more challenging. If Wisconsin can get to 12-0 with road games against Penn State, Michigan and Iowa on the calendar, it should at least have a halfhearted argument for a spot in the playoff—in spite of this joke of a nonconference schedule.

Sept. 1: vs. Eastern Illinois [FCS school]
Sept. 8: at Colorado State [FPI: 104]
Sept. 15: vs. North Texas [FPI: 87]
Oct. 20: vs. Tulsa [FPI: 84]

Every other team in our top nine plays in either the Big Ten, the Big 12 or the Pac-12, meaning they only play three nonconference games. The SEC's Arkansas gets bonus cupcake consideration for putting together a four-game slate without anything close to a likely loss.

To be fair, most SEC teams use their four nonconference games to get three guaranteed wins and a fourth game that is at least moderately challenging. For example, Auburn will open with Washington before eventually steamrolling Alabama State, Southern Miss and Liberty. Meanwhile, Tennessee has a tough Week 1 game against West Virginia prior to surefire home wins against East Tennessee State, UTEP and Charlotte. It's a similar story for just about every team in the conference.

Arkansas is the exception, as it neglected to include the challenging affair.

Maybe the road game against Colorado State would have been a significant test at some point in the past five seasons, but the Rams have to replace QB Nick Stevens, RB Dalyn Dawkins and stud WR Michael Gallup. Colorado State won't be the worst team in the Mountain West Conference, but this is a far cry from a road game against Boise State, Fresno State or San Diego State.

Beyond that, the home game against Tulsa should be Arkansas' biggest "challenge," even though the Golden Hurricane went 2-10 last year.

The Razorbacks will still need to win home games against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss—or steal a win elsewhere—to become bowl-eligible, but these four nonconference games are quite the boost toward that goal.

Sept. 1: vs. Bowling Green [FPI: 107]
Sept. 8: vs. Portland State [FCS school]
Sept. 15: vs. San Jose State [FPI: 118]

Assuming future schedules hold to form, Oregon will open the 2019 season against Auburn before playing a home-and-home series against Ohio State in 2020 and 2021.

But for this coming season, the Ducks have put together one of the easiest nonconference schedules in recent history.

Bowling Green and San Jose State went a combined 4-21 last season. Both teams were downright awful on defense, which means Justin Herbert and Co. should rip them to shreds. And then there's Portland State, which joined Indiana State and VMI as the only FCS teams who failed to win a single game in 2017.

Not only does Oregon play all three of those dreadful teams, but it also gets to play all of them at home.

ESPN's FPI gives the Ducks at least a 97 percent chance of winning each game. Multiply the percent chances together and you get a 94.6 percent chance of a 3-0 start, and even that seems a little too low for this schedule. If the Ducks want to put Herbert's name in the Heisman conversation, they'll win each of these three games by at least five touchdowns.

Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.