5 Realistic Trade Partners for Minnesota Vikings in 2015 NFL Draft

Honestly, anything and everything is realistic on draft day for general manager Rick Spielman and the Minnesota Vikings.

Spielman was officially named the Vikings' GM at the very beginning of 2012, and this will be the draft history benchmark, again.  

Fans of the Purple and Gold have seen him trade the No. 3 overall selection for the No. 4 pick and three mid- to late-round selections, trade up and into the first round for three consecutive years (2012: Harrison Smith, 2013: Cordarrelle Patterson, 2014: Teddy Bridgewater) and infrequently give Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam (more) reason to fire GM Ray Farmer.

The Vikings GM, a true first-round magician, is utterly unpredictable on Day 1. Regardless of the year, prospect class or roster need, there is never a definitive answer as to what he may do when the clock strikes Vikings.

However, Spielman does appear to have a bit of a comfort zone. While certainly not analytical, his first-round trade partners over the past three years could provide some insight.

He tends to discuss business with the same organizations and, more specifically, the same upper executives—this statement is not exclusive to draft-day trading. For example, Minnesota and Spielman appear to have a special bond with the Seattle Seahawks and their GM John Schneider, who isn't too bad at drafting himself (see 2010-2012 classes for reference).

Not only do the Seahawks prey on the Vikings' veteran free agents (Antoine Winfield, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Williams to name a few), but Schneider and Spielman have agreed to multiple trades in recent years. The most notable, of course, was the Percy Harvin swap for picks No. 25 (2013) and No. 96 (2014) as well as a seventh-round selection (2013).

This NFL draft currency was ultimately exchanged for cornerback Xavier Rhodes, running back Jerick McKinnon and (irrelevant) guard Travis Bond.

I could be mistaken in saying the Harvin for Rhodes and Co. is the most notable, however, as the most recent Spielman-Schneider commerce netted Minnesota the No. 32 overall selection in the 2014 draft.

In return, Seattle received selections No. 40 (LB Kyle Van Noy) and No. 108 (DE Cassius Marsh) from the Vikings. Schneider would later flip selection No. 40 to the Detroit Lions for picks No. 45 (WR Paul Richardson), No. 111 (C Russell Bodine) and No. 227 (RB Kiero Small).

Richardson, Bodine, Marsh and Small comprise a solid draft haul (the subsequent ACL injury wasn't exactly part of the plan, though), but the guy Minnesota obtained with the Seahawks' first-round pick appears to be pretty good. In fact, some say he has the potential to be great.

The Spielman-Schneider draft-day alliance won't (likely) affect Day 1 this year, however, as Seattle sent its 2015 first-round selection (No. 31 overall) and center Max Unger to the New Orleans Saints in order to acquire superstar tight end Jimmy Graham and a fourth-rounder.

Essentially, Schneider is not only sleeping with the enemy, but he also isn't scheduled to make a selection on April 30, which costs Spielman a contact he is comfortable with. Due to this "betrayal," the Vikings GM will be forced to direct his phone calls elsewhere this year, unless the Vikings are set on making a selection at No. 11.

Since this does not appear to be the case, let's take a look at five trade partners Spielman should be capable of striking a draft-day agreement with in roughly 10 minutes time.

It seems unlikely the Vikings will be looking to trade up from their spot at No. 11, but to dismiss the possibility entirely with such a capricious GM at the helm would make this analysis incomplete.

Given that Minnesota has spent time with multiple high-end prospects (Dante Fowler Jr., Vic Beasley, Randy Gregory) and likely has hidden interest in many others (Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Leonard Williams, Brandon Scherff), it isn't improbable that Spielman has, at the very least, considered the possibility of moving up.

With that said, moving into the top 10 (or top five, for that matter) would be difficult. The Washington Redskins could possibly be a suitor, but without any hard evidence, it's difficult to consider them a "realistic" possibility.

This shifts focus to the Oakland Raiders, who currently are in possession of the No. 4 overall selection. Most analysts believe a wide receiver is in the Raiders' future, as NFL.com shows, but their current backfield situation isn't exactly a strength either.

Latavius Murray looked really good through four carries against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he wasn't nearly as effective after returning from a concussion—this isn't arguing correlation (head injuries are serious, though), I'm simply using the time frame as a benchmark. The addition of Trent Richardson looks good on paper, but the problem with this move is just about everything he has done since reaching the NFL.

These circumstances could lead the impulsive Reggie McKenzie, Oakland's general manager, to consider using the No. 4 overall pick to acquire a reliable running back for quarterback Derek Carr to lean on. This could mean drafting, for example, Georgia's Todd Gurley, trading down to acquire a cache of selections or using it as the centerpiece of a deal to bring in an established talent.

Coincidentally, Adrian Peterson was recently reinstated by the NFL and can rejoin the Vikings as early as Monday, if he so chooses. Ben Dogra, Peterson's outspoken agent, has instilled the belief that this isn't going to happen, however, which could ultimately lead to a trade.

According to Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman, the Raiders have joined the Dallas Cowboys as a top candidate to land the disgruntled superstar:

I asked two general managers about Peterson's return, and they told me they believe three teams are in play for him: the Cowboys, the Cardinals and the Raiders. 'The Cowboys are front-runners one said,' one said, 'but I actually believe the Raiders are right there.' But these general managers also think Peterson's $12.75 million salary is, in one's words, 'an anchor around Peterson's neck.'

This block of information, as you may have noticed, does not outline any plausible trade scenarios. This is likely because there isn't a conclusive answer as to what Minnesota believes Peterson's value to be.

Bleacher Report's Arif Hasan made a compelling case for a number of possibilities, concluding Peterson's value to be (potentially) worthy of a second- and four-round pick (or two third-round selections). This hypothesis marks Peterson light-years away from the value of a top-five overall pick, but packaging him with one (or more) draft picks could close the gap significantly.

Minnesota could, for example, include its second- (No. 45) and fifth-round (No. 129) selections with its former MVP to level the playing field.

Oakland also has plenty of salary-cap space (north of $24 million, per Spotrac) to assume Peterson's contract, lacks a definitive face to identify the franchise with and maintains an extended history of impulsive, strange and subpar acquisitions.

In addition, McKenzie tends to be a strange prospect evaluator. The most interesting case being cornerback DJ Hayden, whom he drafted at No. 12 back in 2013. As great of a feel-good story as Hayden is, drafting a player in the top 15 who dealt with not an ACL tear, but a life-threatening injury seems aggressive. He has played in 18 games since, recording a Pro Football Focus grade of negative-9.1.

Finally, McKenzie's background as a former NFL player is (almost certainly) one of the most important elements of his executive philosophy.

Given that the vast majority of players—per Master Tesfatsion of the Minneapolis Star Tribune—who have discussed the Peterson saga have expressed support and confusion, McKenzie may be able to level with No. 28 better than Minnesota's front office. While more speculation than analytical fact, this evidence should be an element considered in this trade scenario.

Is this draft-day trade scenario likely? Probably not. Is it realistic? Knowing the Raiders, Spielman's trading history and how talented (and possibly angry) Peterson is, it just might be.

The chances of the Vikings moving up in the draft may be unlikely, but moving down is a completely different story.

Minnesota has expressed interest in Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes and Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker, but this doesn't mean Spielman intends to select one (or a completely different player for that matter) at No. 11. KFAN 1003's AJ Mansour noted Waynes and Parker potentially making visits to Minnesota: 

Richardson is coming to town to visit the Vikings. I'm also hearing Trae Waynes and DeVante Parker coming in for visits as well. #Vikings

— Aj Mansour (@AjKFAN) April 7, 2015

Spielman has already let it be known that he is evaluating trade options, and who better to trade with than Mike Zimmer's old club, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Owner Mike Brown always appeared to be a big fan of Zimmer during his tenure in Cincinnati, as he should have been given the amount of success he brought to the Bengals defense. The relationship to work cohesively and efficiently should be there, and the No. 21 overall pick seems to be a good area for Minnesota to set up shop, but Brown's interest in moving up is questionable.

The Bengals don't tend to be very active on draft day, as Brown hasn't traded up in quite some time. With that said, this could be the year this changes.

Cincinnati has shown interest in Kentucky edge-rusher Bud Dupree, a prospect that has garnered plenty of attention lately and is a candidate to end up out of reach for the Bengals. The NFL's official Twitter feed noted Dupree's "stock is rising":

Nelson Agholor's stock = going UP. So is Bud Dupree's. 2015's fastest rising draft prospects: http://t.co/fRohV5zZqO pic.twitter.com/xP9cbZoFwY

— NFL (@nfl) April 12, 2015

If Brown wants to acquire a top pass-rusher in this class, Dupree represents the most realistic option, and the road to him could run through the Vikings.

Bill Belichick, along with John Schneider, has seemingly been on Spielman's speed dial in recent years. He isn't exactly easy to claw a winning deal out of, however.

There was once a time in Vikings land when wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson was considered a hero, a player who would soon develop into a superstar and revolutionize Minnesota's offense the way Harvin did just a few years prior.

Many have given up hope on the work-in-progress known as Flash, but he still maintains plenty of potential, and he could end up silencing his critics in 2015 if he immerses himself in a fundamentals-tailored offseason regiment.

Not many fans are as thankful right now, but it is Belichick who is responsible for allowing Spielman to select Patterson at No. 29 back in 2013. In a deal that completely depleted Minnesota's draft selections and rewrote the Day 2 game plan, Spielman sent picks No. 52, No. 83, No. 102 and No. 229 to the Patriots for the ability to draft the Harvin-like Tennessee product.

As previously stated, Belichick doesn't exactly make it easy to beat him in the Day 1 trading game. In fact, many outlets, specifically Doug Kyed of NESN, are already recognizing Belichick as the winner of this transaction. While he maintains a fair and compelling argument, especially after watching Patterson run routes this past season, the jury is still out on an official ruling.

If all wide receivers were considered "wins" or "losses" after two seasons, a solid chunk of the game's best (Roddy White, Demaryius Thomas, Julian Edelman, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Vincent Jackson and even Antonio Brown to a degree) would now be entertaining significantly less lucrative contract offers, potentially completely unrelated to football. Development takes time for some players, but this is an argument to be had elsewhere.

Moving forward, Belichick tends to make the most of draft day, whether this means acquiring a slew of mid-round picks (see above trade) or moving up to get an impact player (or two: DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont'a Hightower).

Simply put, if Spielman isn't interested in his options at No. 11, Belichick's phone line will be open. The Patriots could use an elite cornerback to replace the departed Darrelle Revis, and a top-15 pick such as Waynes may be considered—this example is highly dependent on Belichick's cornerback evaluations, as Kevin Johnson and potentially even Marcus Peters could be available at No. 32.

Similar to Belichick, Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome is known for being very active on Day 1, and he seemingly maintains a strong working relationship with Spielman. The fact that Newsome allowed the clock to run out and Kansas City to hop in front of him proves that he spends quite a bit of time (maybe too much) working the phones.

Additionally, the first line of the previously linked article written by Ryan Mink of the Ravens, "Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome has made numerous draft-day trades during his career," tends to side with Newsome being active in trade talks during the first round and throughout the draft.

In this case, however, few Vikings fans should be hesitant to thank Newsome and his organization for the role they played in the development of Minnesota's defense. Back in 2012, Spielman's "rookie" year, the Vikings GM found common ground with the Ravens GM on a deal that sent picks No. 35 and No. 98 to Baltimore in exchange for the No. 29 overall selection.

Minnesota would then select hard-hitting Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith—a choice I was admittedly disappointed by initially due to an enamor with former Northern Alabama and Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins as well as considerable disdain for 2011 Vikings cornerbacks Cedric Griffin and Asher Allen.

It was easy to get over, however, as Smith put together an outstanding rookie season; his cumulative Pro Football Focus rating was plus-10.8, and his coverage rating was a plus-12.5. Adding Smith's excellent coverage to the dreadful Vikings secondary (Winfield, Griffin, Allen, Chris Cook, Mistral Raymond, Tyrell Johnson, etc.) was similar to re-learning a language; it made logical sense, but I just wasn't used to it.

Newsome, on the other hand, went on to draft Alabama linebacker Courtney Upshaw (No. 35) and Delaware center Gino Gradkowski (No. 98). Although Upshaw maintains a fairly significant role within Baltimore's defense, this trade can be chalked up as a big win for Spielman.

Gradkowski, who was given an opportunity to start in 2013 following former Viking Matt Birk's retirement, was just recently traded along with a 2016 fifth-round pick to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 2016 fourth-round pick. He was noticeably ineffective as a starter; Gradkowski received a negative-15.7 pass-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus and played just 10 snaps in 2014.

Although the Baltimore GM ended up with the raw end of the stick here, he has been extremely successful throughout his career and may be interested in a 2015 rematch. There has been speculation connecting the Ravens to running backs, particularly Gurley and Melvin Gordon, but a dire need for a young No. 1 wide receiver could get Spielman and Newsome talking early.

Following the news of Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong's wrist injury, Baltimore's top-end wide receiver options will be limited to Missouri's Dorial Green-Beckham at No. 26. However, a swap with Minnesota could see Parker in purple and black next season and, for example, Connecticut's Byron Jones in purple and gold.

The difficulty with arguing realistic trade options is the lack of hard evidence. General managers don't just announce their trade partners to the public, as secrecy and sneakiness is part of the draft-day skill set.

In previous slides, I have utilized the "impulse buy," "emotional attachment," "recent history," "frequently active GM" and "general familiarity" cards to frame and drive my arguments. Each standpoint inherently leaves room for scrutiny due to subjective elements, method disagreement or diehard Adrian Peterson fandom.

In the case for moving down to No. 12 or No. 19 with the Cleveland Browns, however, statistical support and nearly identical past cases make the plausibility of Spielman engaging in trade talks with this team difficult to deny.

Since acquiring final say in 2012, Spielman has made five Day 1 trades, which amounts to a 1.67 first-round draft index (FRDI), a very basic statistic I'm working on. It is a simple average that intends to reveal which draft operators are the most active on Day 1.

For comparison, here is a list of draft operators with high FRDI marks since 2012:

• Cleveland Browns: Ray Farmer (3.0 FRDI)*
• Minnesota Vikings: Rick Spielman (1.67 FRDI)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mark Dominik (1.5 FRDI)**
• St. Louis Rams: Les Snead (1.33 FRDI)
• New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (1.0 FRDI)
• Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones (0.67 FRDI)
• Seattle Seahawks: John Schneider (0.67 FRDI)

*Ray Farmer has only participated in one draft (2014);

**Mark Dominik only participated in two drafts (2012-13) before being relieved of his duties.

Surprisingly, Newsome hasn't been too active as of late and doesn't merit noting. Both Belichick and Schneider are on the list, however. The topic of this slide, Ray Farmer, headlines this list, but his volatility may be high due to an incomplete data set. As a result, Spielman is on top, which shouldn't surprise any Vikings fans, with Snead drawing close due to a flurry of trades from 2012-13.

Of Spielman's five Day 1 trades since 2012, two have intended to acquire a lower selection. Given that both of Cleveland's picks (Nos. 12 and 19) are lower than Minnesota's No. 11, these are the two trades we will be working with.

In 2012, the Vikings sent the No. 3 overall selection to the Browns and (then) GM Tom Heckert for picks No. 4, No. 118, No. 139 and No. 211.

In 2014, the Vikings sent the No. 8 overall selection to the Browns and current GM Ray Farmer for picks No. 9 and No. 145.

In each instance, Spielman moved down just one spot in the draft, indicating that both trade discussions were first engaged by Cleveland—there would be no point in seeking out a trade to move back a single spot.

Naturally, this allowed the Vikings GM leverage, which was initially caused by his frequent draft-day exploits—Farmer and Cleveland are certainly aware of Spielman's consistent involvement in trade discussions and likely feared another team bypassing it to select its target prospect (2012: RB Trent Richardson, 2014: CB Justin Gilbert).

Farmer wouldn't have forgotten about Spielman's tendencies, and the Vikings GM further proved he is always willing to consider moving up (or down) in the draft with the last-minute Bridgewater deal in 2014. If the Browns don't chase Marcus Mariota, this same scenario could pop up again.

For example, Cleveland is hypothetically targeting former Washington nose tackle Danny Shelton, and Minnesota is on the clock. Knowing that Spielman is consistently fielding trade offers, while both Detroit and San Francisco are potentially interested in adding a big defensive tackle prospect, Farmer would be forced to either test his luck or (essentially) forfeit a mid-round pick to guarantee security.

The fact that Spielman isn't picky when moving down a single spot forces Farmer's hand as well. Heckert, as an outlier, must have been running out of time or taking the questionable "offer you can't refuse" route.

His deal was truly an abomination in draft-day trading.

Farmer, on the other hand, seemingly kept his cool and offered solely the Browns' first- (No. 9) and fifth-rounder (No. 145) in last year's draft. He still loses the trade, but the Browns got their man—which is something that would be considered a win in itself if "Cleveland's man" didn't always seem to bust (it's unfair to call Gilbert a failure just yet, but Richardson certainly carries on the tradition).

Simply, Spielman appears to be willing to accept a top-150 selection in exchange for one draft spot, which the Browns hold at No. 12 once again.

The more interesting scenario, however, is the No. 19 pick, as the No. 18 to No. 28 range appears to best suit the Vikings in terms of addressing a positional need without reaching. However, in order to evaluate possibilities based on past cases and statistics, we are forced to dig into the time period when Spielman was part of a three-man unit.

Aside from the pair of Cleveland trades, Spielman has only used a first-rounder to trade down on one other occasion since joining the Vikings staff in 2006, which occurred prior to Spielman's GM promotion.

In 2010, the Vikings' draft choices were made by a "triangle of authority" composed of Spielman, then-head coach Brad Childress and financial wizard Rob Brzezinski.

Lions draft operator Martin Mayhew was apparently interested in moving up to select former California running back Jahvid Best, and the Vikings triangle (headed by Spielman) engineered a transaction which sent picks No. 30 (Best) and No. 128 (OT Jason Fox) to Detroit in exchange for picks No. 34 (Cook), No. 100 (DE Everson Griffen) and No. 214 (TE Mickey Shuler Jr.).

As for profit, the Vikings' draft team garnered an earlier fourth-round pick as well as a seventh-round choice at the expense of five draft spots at the end of the first and beginning of the second round.

In hindsight, Best was forced to retire due to concussions, and Fox has been a career backup. Cook proved to be a bust—he is still in search of his first NFL interception—and Shuler Jr. was cut five months after being drafted. But, Griffen quickly became a star in his first full season as a starter.

Spielman, in theory, could use a similar model to acquire assets by moving down with Farmer to pick No. 19. The Browns desperately need interior defensive line and wide receiver help—the elite talent at each position should sell out fast—which makes owning the No. 11 and No. 12 picks desirable.

For example, the Browns could add Shelton and Parker with the pair of back-to-back selections without having to forfeit a pick with their "trade up for security" method.

Minnesota would send Nos. 11 and 129 in exchange for Nos. 19, 43 and 147; the Browns gain ground in the first and fifth rounds, but they lose their second-round selection as collateral.

In this trade scenario, the Vikings acquire another second-rounder, which provides immediate upside, given the multitude of potential first-year starters expected to be available at No. 43 (ILB Denzel Perryman, ILB Stephone Anthony, CB PJ Williams, CB Quandre Diggs, G AJ Cann, etc.).

As a bonus, the Vikings would still be in great position to trade further down (from No. 19) if a target player isn't accessible or would (still) be too much of reach.

The Vikings and Browns have plenty of draft-day trade history already and are in a position to have the "Cleveland forfeit" scenario occur again. But, the pick to keep an eye on remains No. 19, as both teams could significantly benefit from a first- and fifth-round pick flip with Minnesota also receiving a second-rounder as a kicker.

Assuming Farmer's high Day 1 activity (3.0 FRDI) continues, Cleveland would not only be a logical trade partner but also a very realistic one as well.

All statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

Find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT to talk some Minnesota sports or suggest your own realistic trade scenario.