Breaking down Arizona Coyotes star Clayton Keller's regression this season

Richard Morin
The Republic | azcentral.com

Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet doesn’t believe in sophomore slumps. But is there another way to describe how much of a step back Clayton Keller took in his second NHL season?

Let’s start with the basics. Strictly in terms of point-production, it was a down year for Keller. Although he did lead the Coyotes in points for the second time in as many seasons, the 20-year-old experienced a decline in both goals (23 to 14) and assists (42 to 33) from last season to the 2018-19 campaign.

But what caused the disparity?

It certainly wasn’t games played, as Keller played all 82 games for the second-consecutive year. It also wasn’t possession, as Keller actually finished with a better Corsi, a percentage that measures the total number of shot attempts for while a player was on the ice to those against, at 49.6 percent compared to 49.4 last season.

Even Keller’s individual shot numbers are not far off from his rookie season. Keller put 200 shots on goal this season compared to 212 last season, and his 350 total shot attempts were not too much of a departure from his 2017-18 total of 385.

However, what the Coyotes didn’t like was where a large chunk of those shots were coming from. Tocchet said that Keller played too much “on the perimeter,” an aspect of Keller’s season that limited his ability to be assertive.

Clayton Keller's shot map at even strength for the 2018-19 season.

“I mean, there's certain parts of his game he has to change,” Tocchet said during the team’s exit day on April 8. “I'd like to see  and he knows it — more give and go. Not so much perimeter and things like that. Down the stretch, if you watch teams that got in (the playoffs), you watch Colorado, they didn't lose a game the last 10 games. If you watch them play, they were going to the net. You saw them during the year, some of their players all of a sudden they're going to the net.

“They were scratchin' and clawin' and going to the net, hitting. I think we have players that have to understand that you have to do that consistently. Not just Clayton. To get to that other level, what are you willing to do to get out of your comfort zone? And that's something we have to get better at, for sure.”

When the Coyotes needed Keller most, he fell flat. Keller totaled just three goals and 10 points in the Coyotes’ final 30 games, and managed just one assist in the team’s final nine games during a desperate playoff push.

Keller, a player whom Arizona marketed heavily last summer and throughout this season, understands there is room for improvement.

Los Angeles Kings left wing Brendan Leipsic (14) battles with Arizona Coyotes center Clayton Keller (9) for the puck during the first period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, March 9, 2019, in Glendale, Ariz.

“The second year is always hard, especially when you have a good first year,” Keller said on exit day. “Teams know what to expect. You’re getting the top matchups every single night. They’re trying to shut you down so you’ve got to try to find ways to produce, go to the net, shoot the puck more.”

“... You obviously want to get stronger, put some pounds on and if I do that I’ll be fine,” he said. “I want to work on my skills, my stickhandling, shooting, doing all the little things I have always done to give me that extra step on everyone else.”

Keller has said that his idol is Chicago Blackhawks star Patrick Kane, with whom he will be teammates for the United States at the upcoming IIHF world championship tournament in Slovakia.

Like Kane, Keller aims to be a shifty, undersized winger with both playmaking and finishing ability. Keller showed flashes of such play as a rookie, but not so much in 2018-19. Kane had a 12.9 shooting percentage this season; Keller’s 7 percent shooting percentage is on par with forwards such as Brett Ritchie, Tomas Nosek, Nate Thompson and Joakim Nordstrom.

Arizona Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet instructs center Clayton Keller (9) during the second period against the Minnesota Wild in Glendale March 31, 2019.

There was a four game stretch from Feb. 14-19 where Keller managed just two shots on goal, and another five-game stretch from March 23-31 where he registered just seven. Keller’s regression was more evident as the 2018-19 season wore on.

Although he did experience an uptick in ice time from season to season (18:14 per game in 2018-19 compared to 18:05 the previous season), the clocked in under 17 minutes in five of the Coyotes’ last six games. Five of Keller’s 10 lowest time-on-ice averages came after March.

Keller is not and probably never will be an above-average defensive player, and although fans tend to rag on him for his play away from the puck, it was not necessarily an area of regression for Keller this season. In fact, Keller had more takeaways and fewer giveaways than he did last season.

If the Coyotes expect to the a playoff team next season, Keller will have to not only return to his form as a rookie but exceed those numbers. The Coyotes need Keller to be a point-per-game player.

“He still led our team in points, so you've got to give the kid credit,” Tocchet said of Keller, who is expected to train in Arizona this summer. “He's a second-year guy, he's a young kid, still learning. I think he knows that this is a big summer for him, I think he's got to train harder. His practice habits got to get a little bit better, he knows it. It's a tough league. I told him, it's a hard league.

“I don't buy into the sophomore jinx or whatever they call it. I think as an athlete, you've got to be prepared for it. I think he'll be prepared a lot more. And I'm going to help him this summer, because he's an elite guy, a great kid, loves the game. But he's got to play better for us if we go anywhere, for sure.”

Richard Morin covers the Coyotes and Diamondbacks for azcentral sports. He can be reached at rmorin@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @ramorin_azc. Subscribe to azcentral today.