Farmers round on Donald Trump as demand for soyabeans dries up

When Mike Clemens voted for Donald Trump, the North Dakota farmer never imagined the president would push trade policies that would eliminate buyers for his soyabeans.

As Mr Trump has campaigned ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, he has told his base in agricultural states — from Iowa to North Dakota — that he is helping farmers. But Mr Clemens does not agree. 

At his farm in Wimbledon, Mr Clemens and his son-in-law Joe Ericson described how the market had dried up since China put retaliatory tariffs on US soyabeans after Mr Trump started a trade war. In recent months, almost no freight trains have left North Dakota carrying soyabeans to the Pacific Northwest for shipment to China. 

“I’m really pissed,” said Mr Clemens, who regrets voting for Mr Trump. “I blame Trump . . . because he got us in a trade war now that isn't really a great thing for anybody.” 

It’s all fair and good for people to talk about being patriotic. But at the end of day, this is not about the flag, it’s about . . . the survivability of farming operations

Across the Great Plains and Midwest, in interviews farmers expressed frustration at being in trade war crosshairs. But the question is whether they will punish Mr Trump on Tuesday. The issue is particularly important in Senate races since several close contests are in agricultural states.

Mr Ericson, president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, said farmers were divided. “You’ve guys that voted for Trump that are mad at Trump, you’ve got guys that voted for Trump that are sticking with Trump. The ag community is starting to wonder what the heck’s going on. I voted for him and I’m kind of disappointed.” 

Monte Peterson, a North Dakota soyabean grower, said people understood the need to deal with China, but questioned the tactics. “The majority of agricultural producers tend to vote Republican and would tend to support their president. [But] I don’t think many of them think tariffs are the solution.” 

North Dakota is one of several states Mr Trump won where Democrats are defending Senate seats. Mr Ericson thinks Heidi Heitkamp, the incumbent Democrat, will lose to Kevin Cramer, but that her loss would be cushioned because Mr Cramer backed Mr Trump on tariffs.

Byron Dorgan, a former North Dakota Democratic senator, said that while the farmers in the state were angry, he has been surprised at voters’ response to Mr Trump.

“I am surprised they have the patience for him,” said Mr Dorgan. “My hope would be they would have less patience with him these days. He is a lot of talk and not much action, except for tax cuts.”

One thousand kilometres away from Wimbledon in Lacona, Iowa, Randy Miller said he had “quit looking at the markets because they’re depressing”. He said local soyabean prices that day were $7.57 a bushel — $2 below break-even cost. Even so, he said he did not blame Mr Trump.

“We have been unfairly treated or taken advantage of over the years [by China], so until somebody steps up and says, ‘We’re done,’ it is not going to change,” said Mr Miller. 

Tim Gannon, a farmer running to become Iowa’s secretary of agriculture, agreed that the US had to deal with China, but said the approach was wrong. “If we really want to change the way China does business, we would have been better off getting our allies onboard rather than picking fights with them.” 

Tom Vilsack, a former secretary of agriculture who heads the US Dairy Export Council, echoed that view and added that farmers did not understand Mr Trump’s end game. “It’s all fair and good for people to talk about being patriotic. But at the end of day, this is not about the flag, it’s about . . . the survivability of farming operations.” 

Several farmers said pain this year would be mitigated by the fact that they had crop insurance and forward contracts to sell soyabeans, and because the government had created a $12bn programme to reimburse them for lost markets. But many expressed concern about next year, and particularly whether banks would provide loans.

Farmers are also worried that the longer the trade war continues, the higher the odds are China will find other long-term markets. Many remember the embargo that Jimmy Carter put on grain exports to the USSR after the invasion of Afghanistan. The USSR ended up importing more grain from Latin America, which caused long-term pain to US farmers and also cost Mr Carter support in his failed 1980 re-election effort.

Jon Tester, a Montana Democratic senator who faces a stiff challenge this year, said the soyabean tariffs could hit his state if North Dakota farmers switched their soyabean crops to wheat, a key crop in Montana. 

“Being a farmer in Montana, it scares the hell outta me,” said Mr Tester, who took over his family farm in 1978. “I watched what happened with the Carter wheat embargo . . . We watched the farmers go off the land in record numbers.” 

Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, said farmers were encouraged that Mr Trump had last week spoken to Chinese president Xi Jinping, amid expectations that the leaders will meet at the G20 in Argentina this month. “We are thrilled,” she said. “Even after discussions, it’s a long path to getting things nailed down to whatever the new normal is going to be”. 

April Hemmes, an Iowa soyabean grower, said farmers were used to dealing with adverse situations, but added that “you have to have a very good relationship with your banker in times like these”. But when she hosted a delegation of Chinese soyabean buyers in September, she tried to brush off the impact of the tariffs.

“I said to them, ‘Look at my soyabeans that you are never going to buy’, and they all laughed,” she said.

Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter: @dimi