Jason Vargas plans to return from the injured list Saturday afternoon to start for the Mets against the Tigers, and you know what that means:
It’s time to contemplate other options for the Mets’ starting rotation.
(Yes, to be fair, the soft-throwing lefty had been pitching somewhat better, putting together a 3.00 ERA in four starts totaling 18 innings, before his left hamstring acted up. How long do you think that’ll last, though?)
A couple of hours after Vargas toes the rubber at Citi Field, Anthony Kay will do the same for Double-A Binghamton against Trenton. So he’s aligned to replace Vargas whenever the Mets want.
Should the Mets want that? With their schedule about to intensify, would the Mets be best served by promoting their top-performing pitching prospect — their 2016 compensatory draft pick, 31st overall, for letting Daniel Murphy sign with the Nationals — all the way to the big leagues?
Based on conversations with talent evaluators and some old-fashioned common sense, my answer is no. Let the young man keep developing. Don’t thrust him into the middle of a long-shot pennant chase.
“I’d like to see him face tougher competition,” an official from a National League club said, on the condition of anonymity.
Offered an official from an AL club: “He could use some work on his breaking pitch.”
I spoke with four such gurus from four different teams, all of whom have seen Kay pitch this season, when he has broken out to the tune of a 1.07 ERA in nine starts, totaling 50 ²/₃ innings. He has struck out 52 and walked 17, and in his most recent start, Tuesday at Bowie, the 24-year-old left-hander tossed seven no-hit innings, walking one and fanning seven.
A third official, this one from an NL club, stood as the lone endorser of calling up Kay right now. Citing a fastball that topped out at 95 miles per hour and command of that as well as his curveball and changeup in addition to poise on the mound.
“The only thing he could use is a haircut and a shave,” the evaluator said of the shaggy Kay, who attended Long Island’s Ward Melville High School, just like current Met Steven Matz.
Official number four, from an AL team, agreed with our first evaluator when it came to Kay’s breaking pitch, which this person described as “a slurve-y pitch” even though Kay calls it a curveball. Kay’s best off-speed pitch, this official said, is his changeup.
More to the point, evaluator number four said of Kay: “I don’t think he’s a lockdown starter. I look at Matz, he’s not as good as Matz was. With his body type (6-foot, 190 pounds, according to the Mets’ media guide), he’s more like a Kent Mercker (6-1, 175).”
In addition to the subjective observations come two pieces of objective data. First, Kay, who underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in October 2016 (just a few months after getting drafted), has just 173¹/₃ professional innings on his odometer. That’s awfully low, even if Kay is older than sizzling Padres rookie Chris Paddack (23). Going back a few years to the Mets’ mass infusion of developed pitching, Matt Harvey had clocked 245²/₃ minor league innings when he got the big promotion, and he received the quickest good news out of the group also featuring Jacob deGrom (323¹/₃), Zack Wheeler (391¹/₃), Matz (397) and Noah Syndergaard (456¹/₃).
Second, Kay does not yet hold a place on the Mets’ 40-man roster. So if the Mets are not convinced he is ready, then it would be imprudent to move up his clock in case he doesn’t develop as efficiently as desired.
The Mets’ signing of veteran free agent Ervin Santana to a minor league contract shows that they still want more pitching depth. It would be wiser for them to sign free agent Dallas Keuchel than to rush Kay before he’s ready. If it’s September and the Mets actually climb higher in this race — and they need a starting pitcher — then let’s revisit this conversation. Until then, the Mets should seek out other solutions, and fans should accept the virtues of patience.