Statewide runoffs are all GOP

Well, folks, if you vote in the Republican primary, you may want to go back to the polls next week and finish selecting the GOP nominees for several important state offices. If you are a Democrat, the only reason you will need to vote on Tuesday is if you have a runoff in a local race, and there are very few of those around.

We are still a very red Republican state. There are 29 elected statewide offices in Alabama. All 29 are held by Republicans. When all the votes are counted in November, that 29 out of 29 figures will more than likely be the same in the Heart of Dixie. The blue wave has not reached here. There were twice as many Republican voters — 590,000 to 283,000 — as Democratic voters on June 5.

In addition to having all 29 state offices held by Republicans, six out of seven of our members of Congress are members of the GOP. That will also remain the same when the dust settles in the fall.

The only contested congressional race is for the 2nd District, which encompasses most of the Montgomery River Region, including Elmore and Autauga counties, coupled with the Wiregrass. It is a very conservative district. Therefore, it is a Republican seat. The winner of the GOP runoff between Martha Roby and Bobby Bright in the district will win in November, too, and will vote consistently conservative with the GOP leadership in Congress.

Roby is on the ropes because she vowed openly, two years ago, that she would not vote for Donald Trump for president. That unnecessary display of disloyalty has made her very unpopular in the district. Trump has a 90 percent approval rating among Republican primary voters in southeast Alabama. She would have lost two years ago if the primary had been held after her statement. There were an unprecedented number of write-in votes against her. She has been considered vulnerable since that time.

National special interests stuck to their script, stayed loyal to the incumbent and loaded her up with Washington money. She was able to outspend her four male opponents by more than 2-to-1. However, she fell short in the primary, garnering about 38 percent of the vote. Bright received 27 percent and is well known and liked in the district. However, President Trump’s endorsement of Roby three weeks ago may have wiped the slate clean and given her a clear path to re-election.

Winning the Republican nomination for attorney general and lieutenant governor is still pretty much tantamount to election in Alabama, although the Democrats have a viable candidate for attorney general in Joseph Siegelman, former governor Don Siegelman’s son. Youthful Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox also has a viable chance of winning the governor’s race as a Democrat in November.

The GOP race for attorney general has been the best contest in the primary season. Troy King began the race as the favorite and will probably prevail next Tuesday. There were four formidable horses in this race. King has previously served as attorney general and was perceived as the incumbent. His opponent in the runoff, actual incumbent Steve Marshall, who was appointed to the office by then-Gov. Robert Bentley, had been a Democratic DA for a while.

In a GOP runoff, only the hardcore Republican base will vote, and those voters will not be excited about Marshall, who was appointed Marshall County district attorney in 2001 by Don Siegelman and was a Democrat until he switched parties in 2011. My guess is that folks will vote for King, a lifelong Republican.

The race for lieutenant governor will be close between Twinkle Cavanaugh and Will Ainsworth. This contest has attracted more attention and money than ever. There is a 50-50 chance that whoever wins this contest next Tuesday will become governor without having to run for the office. It has happened more than once over the past few decades, including with current Gov. Kay Ivey, who was lieutenant governor when Bentley resigned last year.

If you vote on Tuesday, you will be in a pool of about 10 to 12 percent of voters. That means your vote will be enhanced exponentially.

Steve Flowers served 16 years in the Alabama Legislature. Readers can email him at www.steveflowers.us.