Econ 101

TALLAHASSEE — Florida’s economy has swiftly emerged as a battleground in this fall’s campaigns, with Republicans warning that the election of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum would derail the state’s jobs expansion.

But Gillum’s call for hiking the minimum wage, raising corporate taxes to fund schools and expand Medicaid to provide health coverage to 1 million Floridians, may be embraced by a vast swath of voters struggling in the state’s uneven recovery from the recession, analysts said.

“In the aggregate, we see Florida’s economy doing well, with unemployment down and jobs up,” said Ali Bustamante, an economist at Loyola University New Orleans, who has studied the condition of working-class Florida.

“But when you look under the hood, there are many people who are getting little or no returns in this economy. Gillum’s message may be just what they want to hear,” Bustamante said.

Since the Tallahassee mayor’s surprise nomination over four rival Democrats in the Aug. 28 primary, Republican nominee Ron DeSantis and Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who is looking to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, have launched withering attacks on Gillum.

DeSantis, a Palm Coast congressman, said Gillum will lead the state in a “socialist” direction; Scott said that he and Nelson have “radical, liberal ideas” that will “undo our work and hurt families and job creators.”

Scott used the terms “socialist” or “socialism” six times in describing Democrats in his remarks last Thursday at a GOP “unity” rally in Orlando.

“It’s a stark and clear choice,” Scott said. “If you want job growth, vote Republican. If you want job losses, vote Democratic. If you want low unemployment, vote Republican. If you want high unemployment, vote Democratic.”

Gillum, though, said that what he’s proposing would bring more balance to a state now sharply divided by the economy.

“Over the next four years, we’re going to rebuild this state into one that works for everybody, not just for some of us, but for all of us,” Gillum said.

On the surface, it seems hard to find fault with Florida’s 3.7 percent July unemployment rate, which is slightly better than the national average and nearing the state’s all-time low of 3.1 percent, reached in pre-recession, March 2006.

More than 1.5 million jobs have been added across the state since Scott took office, with the governor touting this as his signature, “mission accomplished” data point.

But economists say the state’s rebound from the recession has been mixed.

Close to half of Florida’s 67 counties still have not regained the employment levels they had before the recession, which began in 2007 and officially ended in June 2009.

Bustamante’s research, conducted for Florida International University, also shows that almost half of the new jobs created in the state during Scott’s tenure as governor are considered low-wage, paying $10 or less an hour.

The percentage of Floridians in low-wage jobs also has grown since the recession, to where it now represents 1 in 5 workers.

Wages in Florida are 87 percent that of the national average and while jobs seem plentiful and growing, almost 3 million Floridians live in poverty — earning less than $24,300 for a family of four.

Poverty numbers peaked in 2012, but still have not dropped below pre-recession levels, records show.

The vast number of Floridians living at the margins of the state’s economy are among the voters Gillum hopes to attract. Also, 46 percent of Florida voters are now under age 49, a cohort that could be willing to set the state on a new economic course.

But these voters also tend to be those least inclined to cast ballots, analysts say.

“The message that the economy isn’t working for everyone is one Democrats have tried to push nationally,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University.

“There’s an audience for that message. But is it a large enough one?” he added.

Some progressives, though, question whether Gillum is the most effective messenger for their priorities.

Kartik Krishnaiyer, a Broward County Democratic activist, said he agrees with most of Gillum’s policy proposals.

But Gillum, whose candidacy has been clouded by an FBI investigation into possible corruption in Tallahassee city government during his time as mayor, may disappoint many initially drawn to his approach, he said.

“His message has been spot on for progressives,” Krishnaiyer said. “But when they see his connections to lobbyists and developers interfering with government, a lot of progressives are going to say ‘this is just the kind of stuff we’ve criticized Republicans in state government for doing.’”

Gillum recently released some receipts from trips he took to New York City in August 2016 where he was joined by a longtime friend and lobbyist, Adam Corey, who brought him into contact with undercover FBI agents.

Another trip in May that year to Costa Rica also involved Corey, with Gillum paying cash for his share of hotel lodging.

Gillum says that he has been cleared by the FBI but the trips are still under investigation by the Florida Commission on Ethics, which appears unlikely to issue findings before the November election.

Still, Gillum enhanced the “progressive” theme of his campaign Thursday by adding Orlando businessman Chris King as his running mate, who made expanding the amount of affordable housing a central part of his unsuccessful bid for the governor’s nomination.

The same day DeSantis added Miami Rep. Jeanette Nunez as his lieutenant governor candidate, aimed at bolstering his standing with women and Hispanic voters and bringing more state government experience to the ticket.

The Democratic ticket looks ready to campaign on the pledge of forging a very different Florida, while its Republican counterpart promotes a “stay the course,” approach, especially with the state’s economy.

“I think the appropriate course of action is to see what has worked here, build off of that, and enjoy even more success,” DeSantis said. “My opponent, Andrew Gillum, would really want to stop that and reverse all the progress we’ve made.”