What if, instead of this year’s pathetic offensive stats, some of the Cardinals hitters had simply repeated their worst season ever?
Like, what if Kolten Wong, instead of his current .213 batting average, was hitting .240, his clip from his 2016 campaign?
Or if Dexter Fowler’s on-base percentage of .270 was actually .346 from 2015?
This season has seen some outlier offense from key cogs — while years of data suggest that these players aren’t as bad as their 2018 numbers state.
And heading into this stretch, the psychology of sport has infused some optimism into the Cardinals.
A new manager means new spirit and encouragement — and less pressure and consternation that was there with the old manager.
And two new hitting instructors mean two fresh voices and approaches to hitting.
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“I guess it brings a new perspective,” said Fowler, whose Cards enter a pivotal five-game series against his former club, the Cubs. “(John) Mabry and those guys were great, but at the end of the day, we didn’t play up to our potential.”
The organization finds itself perched where it hasn’t been in more than a generation and never under the current ownership. The Cardinals are welcoming a new manager in midseason and considering being a seller at the trade deadline. The calendar is their referendum: In the next 11 games, the third-place Cards play the first-place Cubs eight times.
The list of underperforming Cardinals unspools. So, is it possible the second-half Cardinals will hit better because of this simple notion: How could they hit much worse?
St. Louis is still hanging around the wild-card race, four games back of that beautiful, elusive minx that is the second wild-card spot. And in the division, the Cards play the first-place Cubs in eight of their next 11 games. The second-place Brewers had already lost their final six games before the All-Star break — and now they’re dealing with the revelation that All-Star Josh Hader posted racist, vile tweets at age 17.
As for your Cardinals, it’s funny how optimism works, right? It tickles the brain. The exact same players will wear the Cardinals uniforms beginning Thursday at Wrigley. The same players who provided the misery and provoked the pessimism are now seemingly trending up?
We’ll have to see it to believe it — but talking to the Cards after Sunday’s win, they seemed to believe it.
“What we can control is going out and playing the game, playing the brand of ball that we should be playing — if we do that, then things will fall into place,” said injured pitcher and team leader Adam Wainwright, who spends time around the club in St. Louis. “I think we have a lot of positive things coming out of here today, after our meeting.”
One thing also to consider is the new-coach jolt. There are plenty of recent examples of a team resuscitated, at least in the short term, after a coaching change. When the Blues fired Ken Hitchcock, a data analyst named Jean-Rene Gauthier explained to the Post-Dispatch that in the NHL, over the past 40 years, new in-season coaches give their team a .057 boost in win percentage. Sure enough, Hitchcock’s replacement, Mike Yeo, won seven of his first eight games (and the Blues made the playoffs and won a round, too). The 3-15 Cincinnati Reds this season have played a little better than .500 baseball since firing Bryan Price. And there are famous examples, such as Jim Tracy and Jack McKeon, taking over a team in-season and leading it to the postseason.
There are also examples of a team just continuing to stink because the team, well, stinks. The 1995 Cardinals were 20-27 when they got rid of Joe Torre. Interim manager Mike Jorgensen went 42-54 the rest of the way, in that strike-truncated season. That led to the hiring of a new manager and the signing of numerous free agents to rejuvenate the franchise. That seemed to work.
Much will be made about the upcoming Cubs games against Joe Maddon’s maddening rivals. And yes, if the Cards go 1-7 or 2-6 against Chicago, then yes, it might be time to “sell” Bud Norris and your Martinezes. But it’s hard to think even the Mike Matheny-led Cards would do that poorly in an eight-game stretch (broken up by three games at Cincinnati).
So the realistic approach would be making more of a major leaguer-for-major leaguer trade, possibly shipping the beloved batter but bungling baseman Jose Martinez to an American League team. Perhaps St. Louis could nab a quality lefthanded arm or lefthanded bat?
In the meantime, it’s time for the Cards to cease this “Groundhog Day” stuff — or, really, “Groundhog Week,” because it’s not lose, lose, lose, lose, but more of an up-and-down week, every week. New manager Mike Shildt showed his creativity (Yadier Molina hitting second) and aggressiveness (pinch hitting for his starter in the fourth) in the one glimpse we saw the guy as skipper.
The only way the Cards can remain in a race (if they’re even truly in one already) is to ignite the offense, fueling it with education and optimism.
And cleanup hitter Marcell Ozuna is an imperative pupil.
In the past 25 games, he’s hit .202 with a .232 slugging percentage. If his shoulder is strong enough to play in games, then he should be expected to shoulder more of the load.
Team-by-team look at NL Central race
WHO WINS THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL?
The road to the National League Central Division title may well go through a city not even in that division and another not even in the same league.
Neither the division-leading Chicago Cubs nor the challenging Milwaukee Brewers nor the trailing Cardinals have played any games this season against the Washington Nationals, the preseason favorites (incorrectly, so far) to win the National League gonfalon. The Cardinals and Cubs each have seven games left with Washington on a home-and-home basis and the Brewers six.
The other non-divisional team that all three Central contenders will play is Detroit, projected (correctly) as a losing team in the American League. The Cardinals and Brewers have three interleague games with the Tigers and the Cubs have two remaining, having beaten Detroit twice in Chicago recently.
The Cardinals, 7 ½ games back of the Cubs, are called contenders just because they’re in third place but they do have the best divisional record at 26-18, with 32 more games within the division. The Pirates, after whitewashing the Brewers, actually have as many wins (48) as the Cardinals but have lost three more and still are under .500 at 48-49. They, however, have the next best division record at 23-16.
Post-Dispatch baseball writer Rick Hummel takes a closer look at what each division team needs to do in the next 65 or so games:
1. CHICAGO CUBS
Overall record: 55-38
Division record: 21-19
Run differential: Plus-94
MVP: 2B-SS Javy Baez, .292, 19 homers, 72 RBIs
How they’ll win: Anthony Rizzo will hit better than .246 in the final 2 ½ months. Yu Darvish surely will win more than one game. Top set-up man Carl Edwards can dominate if he can remain healthy.
What they need: Another starting pitcher. Darvish and Tyler Chatwood, a couple of their big investments in the off-season are a combined 4-10 with a collective ERA of 5.00.
What they say: “I don’t want to take anything away from Mike Montgomery. He’s done an unbelievable job filling in that (starting) role. But we need Yu Darvish. We’ve got make to sure he’s right. If you’re not right and you’re pitching with something, we’re right back where we started.” _ LHP Jon Lester.
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Overall record: 55-43 (2.5 GB)
Division record: 19-25
Run differential: Plus-49
MVP: 1B Jesus Aguilar, .294, 24 HR, 70 RBIs
How they’ll win: If they get top starter Jimmy Nelson (shoulder injury) to come back, even it’s only for September, and if their oft-used bullpen doesn’t break down by mid-August. Some stable middle infield combination would help.
What they need: One, possibly two starting pitchers. And a little more consistency from their lineup. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich were All-Stars but they knocked in only 70 runs collectively in the first 98 games. Josh Hader not to tweet anymore.
What they say: “We haven’t scored many runs, as of late. We put a lot of pressure on our pitching. It was a tough losing streak of six games we had before the break. Nobody wants to go through that, but you can’t dwell on that. You always have a game the next day.” — OF Lorenzo Cain.
3. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Overall record: 48-46 (7.5 GB)
Division record: 26-18
Run differential: Plus-11
MVP: 1B-RF Jose Martinez, .297, 13 HRs, 56 RBIs.
How they’ll win: If Tommy Pham, who went nothing for 48 in two different stretches in the last few weeks, can stop his drastic downward spiral. If Marcell Ozuna can hit more than singles. If Michael Wacha, their top starter, can return from his oblique injury before it is too late.
What they need: A lefthanded reliever of any substance. A lefthanded hitter who can play the outfield, which is mostly righthanded. More consistency from preseason ace Carlos Martinez.
What they say: “We’ve got good talent. And we’ve got a new voice, a new leader. We’ve got a good group of guys. We know that. We’ve been up and down, but I think we’ve got a group of guys that care about winning.” — C Yadier Molina
4. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Overall record: 48-49 (9 GB)
Division record: 23-16
Run differential: minus-25
MVP: OF Gregory Polanco, 16 homers, 51
RBIs: .823 OPS.
How they’ll win: As long as they keep playing Milwaukee. The Pirates swept the Brewers in a five-game series before the All-Star break and have nine games remaining with the Brewers. And if somebody becomes a No. 1 in the rotation, like young Jameson Taillon.
What they need: Starting pitching help. After Taillon and Ivan Nova, it’s a little thin. Also, a righthanded hitter to complement Starling Marte. The Pirates don’t have enough star power in their lineup.
What they say: “It was a fun five games. I don’t know what the guys have been thinking on the beach or at the pool. For the second half . . . how many games do we have left? Sixty-five? Anything can happen.” — LH reliever Felipe Vazquez
5. CINCINNATI REDS
Overall record: 43-53 (13.5 GB)
Division record: 17-28
Run differential: minus-32.
MVP: 3B Eugenio Suarez, 19 HRs, 71 RBIs, .973 OPS.
How they’ll win: If righthanded reliever Michael Lorenzen plays every day. He has a 2.30 ERA and a 1.755 OPS. If their rotation suddenly develops a couple of top starters other than the flotsam and jetsam they have thrown out there because their bullpen, behind outstanding closer Raisel Iglesias is good enough.
What they need: A starter like Anthony DeSclafani to stay healthy. They may have to think about dealing All-Star second baseman Scooter Gennett if they want to improve their future rotation.
What they say: “Hopefully, we start better than we did in the first half (3-19) and play like we did at the end of the first half. I’ve had this uniform on since I was 18 years old, so, at some point, the playoffs and winning a ring are a priority. That’s really all I think about.” — 1B Joey Votto.