President Komorowski: victorious but soon to be obscure

By E.L. AND J.P. | LONDON, AND K.T. | WARSAW

WITH 95 percent of the votes counted, Bronisław Komorowski, candidate of the ruling Civic Platform, has won the presidential run-off, beating Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the opposition Law and Justice Party with 52.63% of the vote to 47.3%,

Mr Komorowski said "Democracy has won. Our own Polish democracy has won." That may be the last headline for some time. A lucklustre campaign has confirmed suspicions that his main virtue, in the eyes of his sponsor, prime minister Donald Tusk, is to leave the limelight to the government, present a dignified but low-key image of Poland abroad, and keep the presidential veto firmly under wraps. That is one reason why Mr Tusk did not bother to contest the presidency himself: indeed he disparaged it, as as being about palaces and chandeliers. (That was not perhaps the best way of stoking support for Mr Komorowski: why bother voting for a mere chandelier-minder.)

Mr Kaczyński was quick to congratulate his victorious rival and thanked his supporters for ensuring a result which a few months ago, when he was one of the most unpopular politicians in Poland, would have seemed beyond their wildest hopes.

Despite a very strong electoral mandate, the Polish president has few executive prerogatives. His most potent tool is the veto, which can only be overturned with a three-fifths majority in the lower house of parliament. This is no mean feat given Poland's system of proportional representation where coalition governments rarely muster more than half of the lower-house votes. Mr Komorowski's late predecessor Lech Kaczyński was seen by many to have wielded this destructive power indiscriminately, just to make life miserable for Mr Tusk, who had ousted his brother from the prime minister's office in 2007. A nice insight into the chaos of that era comes in this saga from EU Observer, about the failure to ratify the Lisbon treaty properly. A recent Constitutional Court ruling places responsibility for foreign policy firmly in the hands of the prime minister and his cabinet.

Mr Komorowski's victory means that the last ostensible barrier to necessary but possibly painful reforms, especially of the bloated public finances, has fallen. From now on, the government will be unable to dismiss any talk of them by invoking the threat of a veto from an obstructive presidential palace. The excuses have run out.

At EU Observer, Andrew Reitman notes:

The outcome is a victory for the younger, urban class of Poles in northern and western Poland, who have prospered over the past 20 years and who see the country's future in terms of further EU integration, market liberalisation and reconciliation with Germany and Russia.

Our correspondent in Warsaw writes:

Compared to western European peers, a huge proportion of Poles work for the state (or consider themselves ‘Poland B' - the losers of the transition from communism) and fear modernisation. With an eye on general elections next year, the Polish left's Grzegorz Napieralski did the unthinkable by refusing to endorse Komorowski. Smelling an opportunity, Kaczynski then did the unthinkable by praising Poland's communist dictator Edward Gierek as a "patriot" .

Mr Kaczyński trailed in polls throughout most of the campaign, but benefited from a late surge in support after he softened his image and prepared well for a television debate on July 30th . In the final live showdown, Komorowski made the tactical error of criticising the presidency of Mr Kaczyński's late twin brother, who died in a plane crash on April 10th. Kaczynski, who wore mourning clothes, parried by looking hurt. He said it is rude not to respect the dead.

That sympathy vote, and Mr Komorowski's poor candidacy, all helped. But it does not seem to be have been enough to erase the memories of Mr Kaczyński's time as prime minister.

The big question now is the future of the Polish political landscape. Some suspect that Mr Kaczyński's true aim was to lose this election by a whisker in order to allow Civic Platform a free hand, which would mean unpopular reforms and a better chance for Law and Justice at the parliamentary election in the autumn of 2011.

Another theory is that the fruits of victory may prove not quite what Civic Platform wanted. As EU Observer notes, the "veto-wielding, traditionalist late president" was a handy common enemy which preserved party unity. With the Kaczyński bogeyman gone, infighting in the victorious camp may be the result.