Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Wednesday night's showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians in Game 7 of the World Series, and then vote on which team will win at the bottom of the page. The series is tied 3-3.
How we got here
Addison Russell belted a grand slam, Kris Bryant went 4-for-5 with a home run, Anthony Rizzo went 3-for-5 with a home run, Tyler Naquin and Lonnie Chisenhall botched a fly ball that cost the Indians two runs, and everyone complained when Joe Maddon brought in Aroldis Chapman with a 7-2 lead in the seventh inning. The Cubs won 9-3 and will attempt to become the first road team to win Games 6 and 7 since the 1979 Pirates. -- David Schoenfield
Inside the pitching matchup
When Kyle Hendricks is on the mound: The NL's ERA leader rarely hits 90 mph with his fastball and even has an above-average strikeout rate, but what made him so special in 2016 was his ability to limit hard contact. He led all starters in lowest "well-hit average" as batters hit only .207 against him overall and in the postseason they're hitting .211/.278/.282. Maddon did pull him in Game 3 after 4⅓ innings even though he hadn't given up a run.
Hendricks relies on movement and command, as his average fastball velocity was 99th out of 104 right-handed starters, just below that of Indians Game 6 starter Josh Tomlin. No starter had a higher rate of first-pitch strikes and he pounds the corners while expertly changing speeds with a sinker, curveball, cutter and changeup. No starter had a higher percentage of pitches on the outer half of the plate than Hendricks, with 62 percent of his pitches on the outer third of the strike zone.
In his Game 3 start, he continued his postseason trend of throwing fewer sinkers and more cutters. In the regular season, he threw that two-seamer nearly 50 percent of the time but has been below 40 percent in each of his four playoff starts, including 31 percent in Game 3. Some of that is simply the result of facing more left-handed batters -- they hit .341 off his fastball but just .222 against the cutter -- so look for a lot of cutters again with the Indians running out at least six lefties and switch-hitters. -- Schoenfield
When Corey Kluber is on the mound: How good is this matchup? As Rany Jazayerli pointed out on Twitter, this is only the third Game 7 of the live ball era that features two starters who had 5-plus WAR that season. The others were Roger Clemens versus Curt Schilling in 2001, and John Tudor versus Bret Saberhagen in 1985. Kluber also is trying to become the first pitcher to start and win three games in the World Series since Mickey Lolich in 1968 and the first to win five games as a starter in a single postseason (Randy Johnson won five in 2001, but one in relief, and Francisco Rodriguez won five in 2002, all in relief).
Kluber is making his second straight start on three days' rest. He has given up three runs in 30⅓ innings, surrendered only one home run, held batters to a .200 average, and struck out 29 percent of the batters he has faced. Terry Francona limited him to six innings in Games 1 and 4 (and fewer than 90 pitches each game), and with Andrew Miller lurking probably won't ask for more than that. In Game 1, he had pinpoint command of his two-seam fastball, getting it to run on the inside corner to left-handed batters. He wasn't quite so dominant with that pitch in Game 4, but it has been the key to his playoff run:
Regular season: .274/.350/.483
Postseason: .188/.291/.250
He actually changed his approach a bit in Game 4, throwing his hard curveball/slider hybrid more often, 35 times compared to only 30 fastballs. That's one of the most dominant pitches in baseball, as batters hit .115 against it. The Cubs' right-handed batters can certainly expect to see it a lot. Of course, one reason Kluber is so good is that he doesn't fall into patterns. In Game 1, he often pitched backward, starting off with a breaking ball and then going to the fastball or cutter with two strikes. -- Schoenfield
Player in the spotlight
All of them! OK, how about Carlos Santana? In Cleveland's three victories he has reached base seven times; in the three loses he has reached twice. He'll be in the leadoff spot and needs to get on base in front of Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor. -- Schoenfield
Did you know ...
The Cubs are the ninth team to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven World Series. Five of the previous eight went on to win the Series, including each of the last two (1979 Pirates, 1985 Royals). -- ESPN Stats & Information
What will decide the game
Teams are 5-0 this World Series when leading entering the sixth inning (Game 3 was tied 0-0). The Indians are 7-0 this postseason when leading entering the sixth inning, and the Cubs are 7-1.-- ESPN Stats & Info
The man in blue
Sam Holbrook ranks as a less-likely strike caller than many other umpires, though he's not to the extremes of Joe West and Larry Vanover. Holbrook ranks as the 23rd least-likely out of 80 in terms of frequency of strike calling.
Holbrook's tendencies for right-handed pitcher
Left-handed batter: He does not call the inside strike frequently at any height. He will call the low strike, particularly on, or just off, the outside corner -- which is very important for Hendricks and whoever is catching him. Holbrook does not call the high strike often relative to other umps.
Right-handed batter: Holbrook will call the high strike, particularly the high-outside one (notable for the Kluber-Roberto Perez combo). He does not call the low strike often relative to other umps, except for a small patch at the knees on the inner half.
Tendencies with a left-handed pitcher
Left-handed batter: He calls the pitches at the top and bottom borders of the strike zone often, relative to other umps. He does not call the high-and-inside or middle-away strike often, relative to others.
Right-handed batter: He doesn't really have anywhere that he calls strikes a lot, but he's stingy with strike-calling at the bottom of the strike zone.
Hendricks and Kluber both benefit from pitch framing
The two most notable things to be said on the Game 7 starters: During the regular season, Hendricks got more "extra called strikes" than any other pitcher in MLB. He got 65 more called strikes than what the average pitcher would have gotten on the same collection of pitches. Almost all of Hendricks' extra strikes came from low pitches (as noted above, Holbrook has shown a willingness to call those against lefties).
Once Kluber and Perez became a regular battery, Kluber began getting a lot of "extra strikes." In fact, after the All-Star break he led AL pitchers in "called strike rate above average." -- Mark Simon, ESPN Stats & Info
ZiPS odds: It's a 50-50 game
Thanks, ZiPS, for going out on a limb there on the projection. With a decimal point, ZiPS projects the game as 50.4 percent for Cleveland vs. 49.6 percent for Chicago, about as close to a coin flip as you can get. And isn't it fun to see a perfectly even matchup on the last day of the season for the World Series? Click here (Insider) for Dan Szymborski's full Game 7 preview.
Who will win?
Kluber has been Bob Gibsonesque, and if the Indians get an early lead, then their suddenly rested beast of a back-end bullpen comes into play and ... there still is no way I'm picking against the Cubs. Hendricks will zoom in and keep the Indians to one or two or nothing for however long he goes, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta will beef up the relief corps. The Cubs will be getting Kluber on short rest for the second straight turn while seeing him for a third time in a compressed time frame. The way the middle of the Cubs' order is clicking will come into play in a major way. Get ready to party, Chicago, the drought is about to end. -- Bradford Doolittle
There's no stopping the Cubs now. They'll rely on a rested Hendricks to outduel an overused Kluber and win a tight affair. It might come down to Chapman -- or Lester -- versus Andrew Miller, but the Cubs won't relinquish the lead. They'll break their 108-year championship drought with a dramatic one-run victory. -- Jesse Rogers
I will take the Indians to win Game 7. Kluber needs to go only five or six innings and hand a lead to Miller and Cody Allen, which could lead to bedlam in Cleveland. The city really felt as if it overcame a hurdle when the Cavaliers won in June. A loss in Game 7 would be devastating to the city. -- Andrew Marchand
Everything now points toward the Cubs winning it all and the Indians blowing a 3-1 World Series lead and losing in typically agonizing Cleveland fashion. But I picked the Tribe in seven games before it began, and I don't feel comfortable bailing on them now. If Kluber can match Hendricks for five or six innings, Cleveland will ride Miller and Allen all the way to the finish line. Call me crazy, but I think the Indians scratch out a couple of early runs and cap their improbable run with a celebration at Progressive Field. -- Jerry Crasnick
Where the Series stands
It's tied up! It certainly looks like a low-scoring game is in order. It will be fascinating to watch how the managers handle the middle innings -- don't be surprised if Lester is the first guy out of the Chicago bullpen. I do wonder if it will come down to the two big trade-deadline acquisitions. A rested Miller hasn't pitched since Game 4; Chapman has thrown 62 pitches in Games 5 and 6. Of course, maybe it goes extra innings. Can Cubs and Indians fans survive that? -- Schoenfield