This Bank Will Return $2.35 Billion to its Investors
In this article, let's take a look at State Street Corporation (STT), a $31.43 billion market cap company, which provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors worldwide.
Plans to Hike
The firm has an attractive dividend policy showing its commitment to return cash to investors in the form of dividends as it generates healthy cash flow on a regular basis. Days ago, it has announced plans to hike the common share dividends by 13%. This will generate an annualized dividend of $1.32 per share.
The trailing dividend yield is 1.60%, which is ranked lower than 81% of the 1,280 companies in the Global Asset Management industry. Assuming that the board approves the dividend hike starting in the second quarter of 2015, and with a closing price of $76.24, we estimate a new dividend yield of 1.78%.
Buy Back Shares
Additionally, the company announced plans to buy back shares, worth $1.8 billion between now and the end of June 2016. This is higher than the past repurchase program of $1.7 billion of last year. Between 2012 and 2014, State Street has repurchased more than $5 billion.
Returning Value to Shareholders
With 420 million shares and dividends per share of $1.32, it makes about $550 million in common stock dividends for 2015. Further, taking into account the $1.8 billion share buyback plan, the bank will return $2.35 billion cash to its investors.
Valuation
In stock valuation models, dividend discount models (DDM) define cash flow as the dividends to be received by the shareholders. Extending the period indefinitely, the fundamental value of the stock is the present value of an infinite stream of dividends.
Although this is theoretically correct, it requires forecasting dividends for many periods, so we can use some growth models like: Gordon (constant) growth model, the Two or Three stage growth model or the H-Model (which is a special case of a two-stage model).With the appropriate model, we can forecast dividends up to the end of the investment horizon where we no longer have confidence in the forecasts and then forecast a terminal value based on some other method, such as a multiple of book value or earnings.
To start with, the Gordon Growth Model (GGM) assumes that dividends increase at a constant rate indefinitely.
This formula condenses to: V0=(D0 (1+g))/(r-g)=D1/(r-g)
where:
V0 = fundamental value
D0 = last year dividends per share of Exxon's common stock
r = required rate of return on the common stock
g = dividend growth rate
Let�s estimate the inputs for modeling:
Required Rate of Return (r)
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) estimates the required return on equity using the following formula: required return on stockj = risk-free rate + beta of j x equity risk premium
Assumptions:
Risk-Free Rate: Rate of return on LT Government Debt: RF = 2.67%. This is a very low rate because of today�s context. Since 1900, yields have ranged from a little less than 2% to 15%; with an average rate of 4.9%. So I think it is more appropriate to use this rate.
Beta: ? =1.31
GGM equity risk premium = (1-year forecasted dividend yield on market index) +(consensus long-term earnings growth rate) - (long-term government bond yield) = 2.13% + 11.97% - 2.67% = 11.43% [1]
rSTT = RF + ?STT [GGM ERP]
= 4.9% + 1.31 [11.43%]
= 19.87%
Dividend growth rate (g)
The sustainable growth rate is the rate at which earnings and dividends can grow indefinitely assuming that the firm�s debt-to-equity ratio is unchanged and it doesn�t issue new equity.
g = b x ROE
b = retention rate
ROE=(Net Income)/Equity= ((Net Income)/Sales).(Sales/(Total Assets)).((Total Assets)/Equity)
The "PRAT" Model:
g= ((Net Income-Dividends)/(Net Income)).((Net Income)/Sales).(Sales/(Total Assets)).((Total Assets)/Equity)
Let�s collect the information we need to get the dividend growth rate:
Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | Dec 31, 2014 | Dec 31, 2013 | Dec 31, 2012 |
Cash dividends declared | 539,000 | 486,000 | 463,000 |
Net income applicable to common shares | 1,973,000 | 2,102,000 | 2,019.000 |
Net sales | 10,687,000 | 10,295,000 | 10,125,000 |
Total assets | 2,741,190,000 | 243,291,000 | 222,582,000 |
Total Shareholders' equity | 24,473,000 | 20,378,000 | 20,869,000 |
Ratios | |||
Retention rate | 1 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
Profit margin | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
Asset turnover | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
Financial leverage | 122.24 | 11.80 | 11.06 |
Retention rate = (Net Income - Cash dividends declared) � Net Income = | 0.73 | ||
Profit margin = Net Income � Net sales = | 0.18 | ||
Asset turnover = Net sales � Total assets = | 0.00 | ||
Financial leverage = Total assets � Total Shareholders' equity = | 112.01 | ||
Averages | |||
Retention rate | 0.76 | ||
Profit margin | 0.20 | ||
Asset turnover | 0.03 | ||
Financial leverage | 48.36 | ||
g = Retention rate � Profit margin � Asset turnover � Financial leverage | |||
Dividend growth rate | 21.90% | ||
Because for most companies, the GGM is unrealistic, let�s consider the H-Model which assumes a growth rate that starts high and then declines linearly over the high growth stage, until it reverts to the long-run rate. A smoother transition to the mature phase growth rate that is more realistic.
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model (long-run rate)
With the GGM formula and simple math:
g = (P0.r - D0)/(P0+D0)
= ($76.24 �19.87% - $1.356) � ($76.24 + $1.356) = 17.78%.
The growth rates are:
Year | Value | g(t) |
1 | g(1) | 21.90% |
2 | g(2) | 20.87% |
3 | g(3) | 19.84% |
4 | g(4) | 18.81% |
5 | g(5) | 17.78% |
G(2), g(3) and g(4) are calculated using linear interpolation between g(1) and g(5).
Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Year | Value | Cash Flow | Present value |
0 | Div 0 | 1.32 | |
1 | Div 1 | 1.61 | 1.34 |
2 | Div 2 | 1.95 | 1.35 |
3 | Div 3 | 2.33 | 1.35 |
4 | Div 4 | 2.77 | 1.34 |
5 | Div 5 | 3.26 | 1.32 |
5 | Terminal Value | 188.57 | 76.19 |
Intrinsic value | 82.90 | ||
Current share price | 76.24 |
Final Comment
We have covered just one valuation method and investors should not rely on this alone in order to determine a fair (over/under) value for a potential investment.
According to the model, the price is below the intrinsic value, so we can say that the stock is undervalued, and so, in my opinion subject to a potential buy. Further, considering that the stock is down by 4% year-to-date, so I think there is an upside potential for this stock to resurge.
Moreover, State Street is a leading custodian of assets with assets under custody and administration in excess of $24 trillion. It manages assets worth over $2 trillion and is present in over 100 markets across 29 countries. These numbers make me feel bullish on this stock.
Hedge funds guru Arnold Schneider (Trades, Portfolio), Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio), John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio), Mario Gabelli (Trades, Portfolio) and James Barrow (Trades, Portfolio) have taken long positions in the stock, as well as RS Investment Management (Trades, Portfolio) in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Disclosure: Omar Venerio holds no position in any stocks mentioned.
[1] This values where obtained from Blommberg�s CRP function.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
