Autumn is when studios typically unspool their serious-minded awards contenders. But with major film festivals like Sundance, Berlinale and SXSW all occurring before the summer, many potential Oscar players screen before the fall season begins to take shape.
Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel, which opened last spring following a debut at the Berlin international film festival, went on to land a whopping nine Oscar nominations – despite opening before the fall festival season had even begun. The year before that, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska managed the same feat, netting several nominations after premiering at Cannes in May.
With that in mind, here are 30 films that stand a good chance at following a similar path this awards season.
45 Years
Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay earned raves out of the Berlin international film festival earlier in the year for 45 Years, Andrew Haigh’s follow-up to the gay romance Weekend. The two give award-worthy performances as a long-married couple whose relationship is put under severe stress after the dead body of the husband’s first love is discovered.
Where it premiered: Berlin, where both leads shared an actor prize. It opens in August in the UK and in the US this fall.
Possible major nominations: Actor for Courtenay and actress for Rampling.
Amy
No documentary has received more attention this year than Amy – Asif Kapadia’s devastating follow-up to his Bafta-winning sports doc Senna – which tracks the rise and fall of Amy Winehouse, who died at 27 of alcohol poisoning. Using never-before-seen archival footage and audio from exclusive interviews, Kapadia gives Winehouse the masterful portrait she deserves.
Where it premiered: Cannes, out of competition.
Possible major nominations: Documentary feature.
Brooklyn
Sundance produced no surefire Oscar bets like Whiplash or Beasts of the Southern Wild this year, but John Crowley’s Brooklyn, a period romance based on Colm Tóibín’s 2009 novel, emerged as a dark horse. Saoirse Ronan is exceptional as a young Irish woman who leaves the comfort of her mother’s home in Ireland for Brooklyn in 1952. After soon falling for an Italian American man (Emory Cohen), she’s forced to consider a move back to Ireland after learning of some devastating news.
Where it premiered: Sundance; it opens this fall.
Possible major nominations: Picture, actress for Ronan, and screenplay.
Carol
Already considered a frontrunner following its premiere at Cannes, where Cate Blanchett’s co-star in the drama, Rooney Mara, collected a best actress prize; Todd Haynes’ period lesbian romance is sure to gather momentum during the fall ahead of its Christmas release.
Where it premiered: Cannes, where Mara won best actress. It opens Christmas day.
Possible major nominations: Picture, director, actress for Blanchett, supporting actress for Mara, and screenplay.
Cartel Land
Film-maker Matthew Heineman embedded himself with two modern-day vigilante groups trying to take down the murderous Mexican drug cartels, to deliver Cartel Land, a definitive look inside the inner workings of the war on drugs. After winning best director at Sundance following its premiere, director Kathryn Bigelow signed on as executive producer, boding well for its Oscar chances.
Where it premiered: Sundance.
Possible major nominations: Documentary feature.
Clouds of Sils Maria
Kristen Stewart made history this year as the first American to win France’s prestigious César award for best supporting actress for her revelatory performance as an assistant to a demanding actor (Juliette Binoche) in Olivier Assayas’s drama Clouds of Sils Maria. The film doesn’t have much momentum going into awards season since it came out earlier in the year, but don’t rule Stewart out.
Where it premiered: Last year’s Cannes.
Possible major nominations: Supporting actress for Stewart.
The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Marielle Heller’s feature debut The Diary of a Teenage Girl was one of the major breakouts at Sundance with its tender tale of a teen in 1970s San Francisco coming of age by having an affair with her mother’s boyfriend. Bel Powley is a revelation as the sexually liberated teen, and Kristen Wiig surprises with a layered performance as her alcoholic mother.
Where it premiered: Sundance, where it won best cinematography; it opens in August in the US.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Powley, supporting actress for Wiig, and screenplay.
The End of the Tour
Jason Segel entered Sundance as a proven comedian and left the festival as an acclaimed dramatic actor, thanks to his powerful performance as Infinite Jest novelist David Foster Wallace in James Ponsoldt’s heady two-hander, The End of the Tour. The How I Met Your Mother actor digs deep opposite a strong Jesse Eisenberg, who plays a Rolling Stone reporter engaged in a five-day interview with the writer.
Where it premiered: Sundance; it opens this August in the US.
Possible major nominations: Actor for Segel and screenplay.
Ex Machina
Swedish actor Alicia Vikander has had one hell of a year with performances in Testament of Youth and Guy Ritchie’s upcoming The Man From UNCLE, both raising her profile. However, it’s her remarkable turn as a mysterious robot in Alex Garland’s science fiction shocker, Ex Machina, that’s sure to leave the biggest impression with awards voters.
Where it premiered: SXSW, in North America; it opened in the UK in the spring.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Vikander.
Far from the Madding Crowd
Carey Mulligan has never given a bad performance after coming out of nowhere to net an Oscar nomination for An Education in 2010, but in Far From the Madding Crowd, the actor has arguably found her best role since that breakthrough. She gives it her all in Thomas Vinterberg’s adaptation of Thomas Hardy’s classic novel, as a fiercely independent woman torn between three eligible suitors.
Where it premiered: Opened in the spring.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Mullligan.
Grandma
Lily Tomlin just earned an Emmy nomination for her work opposite Jane Fonda in Netflix’s Grace and Frankie, and she stands a good shot at also earning an Oscar nod for her powerful lead performance in Grandma, Paul Weitz’s dramedy that premiered at Sundance. The comedy legend is a force as a cantankerous lesbian poet on a road trip with her granddaughter.
Where it premiered: Sundance; it opens late August.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Tomlin.
Hello, My Name is Doris
Two-time Oscar winner Sally Field is given a rare lead role in Hello, My Name is Doris, and flies with it, giving one of the best performances of her career in Michael Showalter’s affecting comedy. She plays Doris, a 60-year-old Staten Island resident who sparks up an unlikely courtship with a much younger co-worker following the death of her mother.
Where it premiered: SXSW; opens later in the year.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Field.
I’ll See You in My Dreams
Tony- and Emmy-winning actor Blythe Danner was the belle of Sundance for her nuanced performance in the drama I’ll See You in My Dreams and, along with Lily Tomlin, emerged as a possible awards contender. She’s wonderful in Brett Haley’s sensitive film as a widow of many decades who finds herself exploring new and surprising relationships.
Where it premiered: Sundance; opened this summer.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Danner.
I Smile Back
Sarah Silverman shocked Sundance with a harrowing dramatic performance as a depressed housewife struggling with addiction in Adam Salky’s pitch-black drama, I Smile Black. The popular comedian, who struggled with depression in her own life, dug deep for the role and the results are astonishing and worthy of awards consideration.
Where it premiered: Sundance; it opens in the US this October.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Silverman.
Inside Out
Two years after disappointing with Monsters University, Pixar returned with a vengeance with Inside Out, Pete Doctor’s animated stunner that broke records when it opened this summer and moved audiences with its heartwarming tale that takes place inside the head of a sad young girl.
Where it premiered: Cannes, out of competition.
Possible major nominations: Animated feature and (possibly) best picture.
James White
Cynthia Nixon devastated Sundance audiences with her unflinching portrayal of a cancer-stricken mother in Josh Mond’s deeply affecting drama, James White. The film was also a hit at the festival, winning the NEXT section’s audience award. Nixon, who’s been ill-served by Hollywood since ending her run on Sex and the City, is deserving of attention going into awards season.
Where it premiered: Sundance; it opens this fall.
Possible major nominations: Supporting actress for Nixon.
Krisha
Writer/director Trey Edward Shults owned Austin’s SXSW film festival this spring with his autobiographical debut Krisha, starring his own aunt Krisha Fairchild in the lead role. The actor commands the screen as a drug and alcohol abuser who reunites with her family for a holiday gathering after a year of absence. Her performance is so strong it calls to mind Gena Rowlands’ legendary turn in A Woman Under the Influence.
Where it premiered: SXSW, where it won the audience and grand jury prize.
Possible major nominations: Actress for Fairchild.
The Look of Silence
Joshua Oppenheimer received an Oscar nomination for The Act of Killing, his troubling documentary that profiled some perpetrators of the Indonesian genocide, by having them re-enact their appalling crimes. He should also be recognized for his follow-up The Look of Silence, which takes a different approach to recounting the events by exploring what it’s like to be a survivor of such a brutal experience.
Where it premiered: Last year’s Telluride international film festival.
Possible major nominations: Documentary feature.
Love & Mercy
Acclaimed when it premiered last year in Toronto, Bill Pohlad’s Brian Wilson biopic Love & Mercy, opened this summer to strong notices for Paul Dano’s committed performance as the Beach Boys member that should serve the actor well going into awards season. Elizabeth Banks is also tremendously affecting as Wilson’s partner.
Where it premiered: Last year’s Toronto international film festival.
Possible major nominations: Actor for Dano and supporting actress for Banks.
Macbeth
Justin Kurzel’s follow-up to Snowtown split some critics upon its debut at Cannes in May, but the majority agreed that its two leads, Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard, give it their all in this bracing Shakespeare adaptation. Each could figure in the awards race, with enough of a push from distributor Harvey Weinstein.
Where it premiered: Cannes in competition.
Possible major nominations: Actor for Fassbender and actress for Cotillard.
Mad Max: Fury Road
It’s not often an action movie drums up Oscar buzz, but such is the case with Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller’s sensational return to the franchise that made his name. The film is one of the best of the year, propelled by Charlize Theron’s soon-to-be legendary performance as the warrior Imperator Furiosa.
Where it premiered: Cannes out of competition.
Possible major nominations: Director, and actress for Theron.
Mistress America
Following their first collaboration Frances Ha, Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig are back with Mistress America, a witty comedy that has earned acclaim on the festival circuit for its rapid-fire banter and appealing performances from Gerwig and relative newcomer Lola Kirke.
Where it premiered: Sundance; it opens this August.
Possible major nominations: Screenplay.
Mr Holmes
The last time Ian McKellen worked with director Bill Condon, it resulted in his first Oscar nomination for Gods and Monsters. He’s deserving of another nom for reuniting with the film-maker for Mr Holmes, a richly rewarding character study centered on a retired, 93-year-old Sherlock Holmes. In it, McKellen gives one of his most subtle and quietly moving performances as a genius dealing with the deterioration of his once incredible mind.
Where it premiered: Berlin; it’s currently playing in theaters.
Possible major nominations: Actor for McKellen.
Sicario
Sicario, Denis Villeneuve’s grim exploration on America’s war against drugs, is as harrowing and dark as the director’s Oscar nominated Prisoners. Emily Blunt is commanding as an FBI agent searching for answers, and Villeneuve is again well-served by the exceptional work of cinematographer Roger Deakins, who he formerly collaborated with on Prisoners.
Where it premiered: Cannes in competition; opens in September.
Possible major nominations: Director and actress for Blunt.
Son of Saul
A major hit with critics at Cannes, where it won the runner-up prize to the Palme d’Or, Son of Saul is one of the most intense Holocaust movies ever attempted. Told from the perspective of a Hungarian-Jewish prisoner in Auschwitz tasked with the disposal of gas chamber victims, it’s the work of first-time feature director László Nemes, previously a mentee for Béla Tarr. Sony Pictures Classics acquired it out of Cannes, boding very well for its Oscar chances.
Where it premiered: Cannes, where it won the Grand Jury Prize.
Possible major nominations: Locked for foreign language feature, but could also net picture, director and actor for Géza Röhrig, who plays Saul.
Southpaw
Antoine Fuqua’s boxing drama Southpaw was greeted with mixed reviews before opening last week, but there’s no denying that Jake Gyllenhaal is stellar as a fighter at the end of this rope in the film. Much has been made of the startling physical transformation he made for the role, and the Oscars are known for rewarding actors who go the distance for a project.
Where it premiered: Shanghai film festival; it’s currently playing in theaters.
Possible major nominations: Actor for Gyllenhaal.
Trainwreck
Kristen Wiig earned an Oscar nomination for co-writing the Judd Apatow-produced hit comedy Bridesmaids in 2012. For the Apatow-directed comedy Trainwreck, comedian Amy Schumer seems all but certain to follow in her steps. It would mark an amzing cap to a phenomenal year for the funny lady.
Where it premiered: SXSW; it’s currently playing in theaters.
Possible major nominations: Screenplay.
Youth
Michael Caine entered the Oscar race back in May upon the debut of Paolo Sorrentino’s follow-up to Oscar winner The Great Beauty. In Youth, Sorrentino’s first English-language feature since 2011’s This Must Be the Place, Caine gives a tremendously appealing performance as a famed composer, enjoying an extended stay at an elegant hotel at the foot of the Alps. Keitel is amusing as Caine’s best friend and cameoing Jane Fonda is a force of nature.
Where it premiered: Cannes in competition.
Possible major nominations: Actor for Michael Caine, supporting actor for Harvey Keitel, supporting actress for a scene-stealing Jane Fonda and screenplay.
The Witch
Horror films are typically overlooked by the Academy, but the film-making skill on display in Robert Eggers’s phenomenally effective bone-chiller The Witch, is cause for celebration. Eggers won best director at Sundance for his debut, and is sure to build a rabid following when more get their eyes on The Witch.
Where it premiered: Sundance; no release date has been set of yet.
Possible major nominations: In a perfect world: picture, director, and actress for startling newcomer Anya Taylor-Joy.
The Wolfpack
The Wolfpack is one of the most bizarre documentaries to come out in a long while – and it’s also one of the most fascinating. Crystal Moselle’s portrait of six teen brothers whose father forced them to spend their entire childhood locked away from the outside world in a cramped apartment on New York’s Lower East Side, blew away Sundance audiences, resulting in a Grand Jury Prize win for the first-time film-maker.
Where it premiered: Sundance.
Possible major nominations: Documentary feature.
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