MLB’s Worst Teams Of 2020: The Bottom 15 Includes Three Playoff Qualifiers

Each year in this space I roll out my team true-talent rankings, which are based solely on granular batted ball data. Strip away all of the subjectivity, rip the logo from the front of the uniform, and let the numbers light the way.

How were these derived? In a nutshell, league averages for each exit speed/launch angle "bucket" are applied to each team's population of batted balls, both for against, to derive the production they "should have" achieved and allowed. Add back the Ks and BBs, and voila, each team receives an offensive and pitching rating, relative to league average of 100. For hitters, the higher number the better, for pitchers, the lower.

Team defense is also measured, in a somewhat unique manner. Clubs' performance is compared head-to-head versus their opponent; the ratio of actual production versus projected performance for both clubs is compared to each other, resulting in a overall defensive multiplier that can also be spread among the individual batted ball types.

This year, I added a new wrinkle. I introduced a team extreme ground ball-pulling penalty, similar to a concept I use for individual batters. It does not impact the overall team rating, but it more appropriately punishes a team’s offense rather than its defense for shortcomings in this area.

To qualify for such a penalty, a team had to both A) pull more than 5 times as many grounders as it hit to the opposite field, and B) post actual grounder production lower than the level it “should have” posted based on its exit speed. The penalty is equal to the amount of that difference. Seven teams were subject to this penalty, and it was especially large for three clubs. Extra especially, for two of them.

Today we'll tackle the bottom 15 clubs. Included are the 12 clubs that missed the playoffs, and three that made them. You may be shocked by where one of them finished.

Each team's actual and projected true-talent records are listed, along with their offensive, pitching and defensive ratings. We talk about players all of the time; this week, it will be more of a macro-type look at the team strengths and weaknesses these players have created. Enjoy.

#30 - Colorado Rockies - Actual Record = 26-34; “Tru” Record = 21-39

Offensive Rtg. = 82.8 (30th), Pitching Rtg. = 118.6 (29th), Defensive Rtg. = 94.2 (5th)

You knew they were bad, but did you think they’d finish last? It’s actually quite embarrassing that a club playing its home games at Coors Field would finish dead last in offensive rating. They really think they have a good offense, but it’s bad on every level. They struck out 150 more times than their opponents, and hit the weakest line drives (90.6 MPH average) in the game. In fact, their opponents hit their flies (by 91.6 to 89.1 MPH) liners (93.7 to 90.6 MPH) and grounders (86.4 to 82.6 MPH) much harder than Rockie batters. Their team defense, especially their infield, anchored by the left side of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, was a clear strength posting an 82.5 grounder multiplier.

#29 - Miami Marlins - Actual = 31-29, “Tru” = 23-37

O Rtg. = 86.4 (28th), P Rtg. = 112.8 (27th), D Rtg. = 98.4 (15th)

Shockeroo—a playoff team finishes behind the Pirates. How did this happen? Well, if you cut off other seasons at the 60-game mark, you will find weak teams among the 16 best records. The Marlins would not have held up over 162. They had 86 more Ks and 35 fewer BBs than their opponents, and their opponents hit their flies (90.9 to 89.2 MPH), liners (93.0 to 91.5 MPH) and grounders (85.5 to 84.0 MPH) materially harder than Marlins hitters. Their offense was grounder-centric while their pitchers allowed more and harder fly-ball contact than most. They were out-homered by 22, even worse than the Rockies’ -20 differential.

#28 Pittsburgh Pirates - Actual = 19-41, “Tru” = 23-37

O Rtg. = 86.0 (29th), P Rtg. = 108.4 (24th), D Rtg. = 100.6 (18th)

The team with the worst record in MLB actual finishes ahead of the Elite Eight Miami Marlins by this measure. Pirate hitters walked 82 fewer times than their opponents, and tied the Mets for the lowest offensive average launch angle at 9.8 degrees. The Bucs were out-homered by 21 - there is a strong correlation between the bottom of those rankings and the bottom of my overall rankings. This is possibly the only team in baseball without any single plausible strength, though the depths of their weaknesses might not be as extreme as others.

#27 Detroit Tigers - Actual = 23-35, “Tru” = 23-35

O Rtg. = 91.4 (23rd), P Rtg. = 120.3 (30th), D Rtg. = 94.6 (6th)

There was actually tangible progress in Detroit this season; they hit the ball almost as hard as their opposition overall. Their biggest issues were when the ball was not put in play - they struck out 123 more times, and walked 55 less than their opponents. Their team defense was above average, particularly in the JaCoby Jones-led outfield (84.8 fly ball multiplier). Their pitching was absolutely hideous, as in addition to their K/BB woes, the staff allowed the loudest fly ball contact in the game and well higher than average line drive frequency. And at -29, they posted the worst homer differential of the teams covered so far.

#26 Arizona Diamondbacks - Actual = 25-35, “Tru” = 24-36

O Rtg. = 95.9 (18th), P Rtg. = 111.9 (26th), D Rtg. = 107.9 (25th)

And here lies the single worst team homer differential of the 2020 season, at -35. Their staff allowed more fly balls than any other club, and they also ranked near the bottom in fly ball authority allowed. Mainstream fielding metrics seem to like the D’backs’ defense, but my approach yields an MLB-worst 134.1 fly ball multiplier. They allowed only 16 more in-play flies than their opponents, but yielded 26 more base hits on them, six more singles, 18 more doubles and two more triples. At the plate, this was a grounder-oriented bunch, and their fly ball authority was among the softest in the game.

#25 - Texas Rangers - Actual = 22-38, “Tru” = 24-36

O Rtg. = 87.1 (26th), P Rtg. = 100.1 (14th), D Rtg. = 104.8 (24th)

The only thing standing between this club and the very bottom of this list is Lance Lynn. Despite his efforts, the Rangers struck out 59 times more and walked 69 less than their opponents. Despite Joey Gallo’s obvious proclivities, their offense hit fewer fly balls, with lesser authority than most. Thanks to Lynn, this was a top-half pitching staff, finishing 2nd in the majors in pop ups induced, with fairly soft fly ball authority allowed. They were out-homered by 19, and their infield defense was poor (112.2 grounder multiplier), as they lacked an average defender outside of Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

#24 - Seattle Mariners - Actual = 27-33, “Tru” = 25-35

O Rtg. = 87.3 (25th), P Rtg. = 107.1 (23rd) D Rtg. = 97.6 (12th)

This was a below average club across the board, with the exception of solid infield defense (90.9 grounder multiplier, led by SS J.P. Crawford). They’re a better version of the Pittsburgh Pirates, but with far better short-term prospects on the way. They struck out 76 more times than the opposition, and allowed 19 more homers than they hit. Their pitching staff allowed the highest average launch angle in the game at 15.3 degrees, but that wasn’t all bad, as they yielded more pop ups than any other staff, thanks in large part to the efforts of Marco Gonzales.

#23 - Boston Red Sox - Actual = 24-36, “Tru” = 25-35

O Rtg. = 93.9 (20th), P Rtg. = 116.9 (28th), D Rtg. = 96.1 (10th)

Their main strength was outfield defense (84.1 fly ball multiplier), led by Jackie Bradley Jr. and Alex Verdugo. Other than that, their collapse was complete. With Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez missing, they walked 65 more batters than their offense could muster, leading MLB with 252 free passes. They allowed the third hardest fly ball authority, a no-no in Fenway, and also yielded a ton of liners. Their offensive walks shortfall was due both to the departure of Mookie Betts and the collapse of J.D. Martinez. They were outhomered by 17, an unthinkable concept pre-2020.

#22 - Kansas City Royals - Actual = 26-34, “Tru” = 26-34

O Rtg. = 88.7 (24th), P Rtg. = 106.2 (22nd), D Rtg. = 94.9 (8th)

The Royals are notable for a couple of reasons - they’re the first club we’ve covered that was assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty, and the first club that posted a fairly neutral (-8) homer differential. Honestly, they don’t seem like likely candidates for either distinction on paper. Their outfield defense was a particular strength (83.6 fly ball multiplier), and is more attributable to across-the-board good-ness rather than individual greatness. Their overall average exit speed deficit of 2.9 MPH (88.8 to 85.9 MPH) was the second largest in the game. Though they were slightly below average in most respects, they have pulled themselves from the game’s depths, likely for the foreseeable future.

#21 - Washington Nationals - Actual = 26-34, “Tru” = 28-32

O Rtg. = 101.6 (10th), P Rtg. = 111.8 (25th), D Rtg. = 98.4 (16th)

This is the first team we’ve encountered with a true strength, a top 10 offense, largely thanks to Juan Soto and Trea Turner. They struck out 57 fewer times than their opponents, a key driver of their offensive success. The Braves were the only top 10 offense with a higher than average K total. Due in large part to the absence of Stephen Strasburg, their pitching was awful. They yielded lots of flies and liners, finishing second in the latter category. Their -3.6 launch angle deficit (10.8 vs. 14.4) was the largest in the game, and they posted a -28 homer differential. Their team defense fares better here than in other publicly available metrics, particularly in the infield (84.6 grounder multiplier).

#20 - Baltimore Orioles - Actual = 25-35, “Tru” = 28-32

O Rtg. = 86.8 (27th), P Rtg. = 104.3 (20th), D Rtg. = 89.6 (3rd)

Surprised? First, the negative stuff. No club posted a more significant exit speed deficit than the O’s. Overall, their opponents’ average exit speed was 3.5 MPH higher (89.1 vs. 85.6 MPH). This applied across all BIP types (90.9 to 88.7 MPH on flies, 94.5 to 92.1 MPH on liners, 86.2 to 81.4 MPH on the ground). So then, how did the Orioles compile 36 more singles/doubles/triples than their opposition? Defense is part of the reason why. Their 82.4 grounder multiplier was particularly strong, as they deployed a number of pure shortstops (Jose Iglesias, Hanser Alberto, Andrew Velazquez) up the middle.

#19 - Houston Astros - Actual = 29-31, “Tru” = 28-32

O Rtg. = 92.1 (22nd), P Rtg. = 96.6 (11th), D Rtg. = 102.0 (21st)

Playoff team in the bottom 15 alert. This was an across-the-board juggernaut in 2019. The pitching decline can be attributed to the losses of Gerrit Cole to free agency and Justin Verlander to injury, though Framber Valdez helped keep the staff afloat. The offense? Well, you know. Astro batters hit the second weakest fly balls in the majors, and their walk total dropped from first in the majors into the average range. Funny what happens when you don’t know what pitch is coming. In 2019 they put an insane 681 more balls in play than their opponents; that advantage dropped to 106 in the shortened 2020 campaign. They’re also our second club to be assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty.

#18 - Chicago Cubs - Actual = 34-26, “Tru” = 29-31

O Rtg. = 93.7 (21st), P Rtg. = 95.4 (10th), D Rtg. = 100.2 (17th)

Like the Astros, the Cubs are a 2020 playoff team listed in my bottom 15, and are another club that was assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty. They’re the first top 10 pitching staff listed in these rankings. Their staff didn’t walk many, and thanks in large part to the efforts of Kyle Hendricks, pitched to weak contact. Offensively, this was a high K/high BB unit that didn’t hit the ball very hard. Their defense was in the average range overall, but their infield defense was strong (80.3 grounder multiplier), mostly thanks to Javier Baez. They finished 1st in the NL Central, but my rankings place them 4th.

#17 - Philadelphia Phillies - Actual = 28-32, “Tru” = 30-30

O Rtg. = 110.3 (5th), P Rtg. = 99.7 (13th), D Rtg. = 112.1 (30th)

Our first team to have an elite core component (a top five offense), and to rank in the top half in both hitting and pitching. They walked 44 times more and whiffed 52 times less than their opponents, and their offensive fly ball frequency and authority were materially above average. Their staff was grounder-centric, led by NL Contact Manager of the Year Zack Wheeler. The big problem was their worst-in-the-majors defense. It was bad across the board, but its 125.5 fly ball multiplier was its worst aspect, keyed by the presence of the husk of Andrew McCutchen in left field.

#16 - Toronto Blue Jays - Actual = 32-28, “Tru” = 30-30

O Rtg. = 109.5 (6th), P Rtg. = 102.2 (18th), D = 108.0 (27th)

The AL version of the Philadelphia Phillies, but with much more cost-controlled, upwardly mobile young talent. Only the Braves and Dodgers hit the ball harder than the Jays’ 89.0 MPH overall average, and only the Dodgers hit their liners harder than their 94.9 MPH average. They even hit their grounders hard, and without an excessive pulling penalty. Their offense is a mirror of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s talents, and he’ll only get better. They did walk 47 times less than their opponents, mostly the fault of their pitchers. The staff did have a unique high pop up/grounder combo, driven by AL Contact Manager of the Year Hyun Jin Ryu. Like the Phils, their defense was a disaster, with a 117.1 fly ball and 112.2 grounder multiplier largely due to the “contributions” of Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk to the former and Guerrero to the latter.

Next week, the top 15, including the three remaining non-playoff teams, the Angels Mets and Giants.