But it points to a rough road ahead for Disney. The Mouse House (like many studios) has become increasingly reliant on films with massive budgets that need to earn $700 million and up at the global box office to become profitable.
Those risks can mean big rewards. Last year's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides also cost an estimated $250 million and it earned $1 billion at the global box office.
But when those movies don't perform it can do a lot of damage. Nikki Finke recently wrote that John Carter could be the "biggest writeoff of all time." That story was based on now-old tracking information but Jeff Bock, of Exhibitor Relations, says that not only does the movie need to open to at least $50 million, but it will have to pull an Avatar and hold onto that box office for weeks.
Big budget franchise films are a necessity now that the studios are all owned by major media conglomerates like News Corp., Comcast and Sony. For Disney a hit like The Help doesn't mean that much down the line. Sure the film earned $206 million on a budget of $25 million and Octavia Spencer won a Best Supporting Actress Oscar but don't expect a sequel or Aibileen and Minny dolls or a cartoon series based on the movie any time soon. The film divisions of these media companies need to do more than just make small profitable films, they need to create small empires.
Disney executives know they have a tough product on their hands with John Carter and to be fair, the film might not be quite the disaster many are expecting. Chatter among the geek class has been increasingly positive about the film. Ain't It Cool News loves the movie and that can sometimes help at the box office. Then there's this video of people coming out of a screening of the film raving about it. There's also always a chance that the film will perform much better overseas than it will in America. That was the case with the latest Pirates which earned 77% of its total box office internationally.
But if John Carter does fail to wow at the box office, that's going to put even more pressure on Disney's two other big films this year: The Avengers and Brave.
A new trailer for The Avengers hit the Internet yesterday and instantly became the most popular trailer on iTunes. (The first trailer boke records on iTunes when it debuted in October.) The superhero film looks to be as close to a sure bet as studios get these days. The characters are all Marvel heroes who have already starred in their own blockbuster films like Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.), Thor (Chris Hemsworth) and Captain America (Chris Evans). Little boys across the country are already playing with Captain America airplanes and throwing Thor hammers from the films last year so it's a safe bet they'll hit the theaters to see the heroes come together.
It's too early to know exactly how well The Avengers is tracking (the film hits theaters May 4th) but this kind of Internet buzz two months before the film opens can only be a good thing.
Will the success of The Avengers be able to make up for any losses from John Carter? That's the kind of struggle all studios are facing now. Brave is a bit more of a wild card for Disney. Pixar movies tend to do very well at the box office but Brave will be the first Pixar film to feature a female hero and its Scottish setting means that all of the characters have accents.
It's wise not to bet against the creative folks at Pixar though. Who would have though an almost silent movie about a trash collecting robot would be a hit but Wall-E earned $521 million at the global box office. And Disney has Finding Nemo in 3-D hitting theaters this September which will help dump some money into the coffers. (Nemo director Andrew Stanton is also directing John Carter.)
But the situation at Disney speaks to the increasingly risky game studios are playing. It's easy to say they should go back to focusing on mid-budget films that can offer good returns but that's no longer the reality of the business.
Are you planning to see John Carter?
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