The 14th week of the NFL season is upon us, and we have some heated battles between potential playoff teams about to take place. Even though several teams are eliminated (or close to it) in real life, when it comes to making picks against the spread, no one is eliminated. All bets are fair game.
And even though we're deep into the season and know lots of things about many teams, the beauty of NFL lines is nothing is ever easy. Witness the game in San Francisco this week. It's arguably the worst game of the year, and yet it's fascinating because Colin Kaepernick and Co., smack in the middle of an 11-game losing streak, are a field-goal favorite.
Mull that over, think about it for a minute. Swirl it around your glass, sample it and then spit it back out. It's beautiful and gross at the same time, like a rank pinot grigio aged in an open cask for several weeks. Or something.
That's not the only confusing line out there either. The Packers are underdogs at home in December, the Steelers seem to be too easy of a bet, and multiple teams with seven wins are huge dogs. It's wild.
Let's get to the odds.
NFL Week 14 updated odds
(All lines via VegasInsider.com, all bet percentages by SportsInsights.com)
Broncos (8-4) at Titans (6-6)
- Opening line: Titans, -1.5 points
- Current line: Titans, -1 point
The Titans were surprise favorites over the Broncos when this line opened, but perhaps that was a Paxton Lynch issue? Trevor Siemian returned to practice on a limited basis and is listed as questionable for this game. Despite the quarterback concerns for Denver, more than 60 percent of the bets are on the Broncos and the line is still holding steady. The Titans are one of my five best bets this week.
Chargers (5-7) at Panthers (4-8)
- Opening line: Panthers, -3 points
- Current line: Panthers, -1.5 points
The "Which Team Has Given Up The Most On Their Season" Bowl has seen a pretty big swing in terms of the spread, with the Chargers going from a full field goal underdog (standard for a visiting team) to just a 1.5-point dog. This will be Philip Rivers' first return to North Carolina to play professional football after spending four years at North Carolina State. 56 percent of the bets are on the Panthers, which is surprising considering how they looked against the Seahawks last Sunday night.
Texans (6-6) at Colts (5-6)
- Opening line: Colts, -4.5 points
- Current line: Colts, -6.5 points
This line opened with the Colts moderately favored, but the outcome on Monday night caused a major shift. Andrew Luck looked phenomenal as the Colts blew the doors off the Jets on a national stage, and with 63 percent of the bets landing on Indy it's not surprising to see this line move in the Colts direction. Having to say the words "I'll back Brock Osweiler on the road" probably doesn't help people interested in wagering on the Texans at all.
Bengals (4-7-1) at Browns (0-12)
- Opening line: Bengals, -4 points
- Current line: Bengals, -5.5 points
As John Breech initially wrote, this is the Browns' Super Bowl. They're a winless 0-12 on the season, and good luck finding a spot for them to secure that first win. It shouldn't be surprising at all to see this line move towards the Bengals -- Cleveland is now 2-10 against the spread this year and an embarrassing 0-6 against the spread at home. Robert Griffin III will return for Cleveland and the weather could be ugly in this matchup, but much of that feels like grasping for straws/reasons Cleveland can cover.
Steelers (7-5) at Bills (6-6)
- Opening line: Steelers, -1.5 points
- Current line: Steelers, -3 points
If ever there was a trap game, this is it. The Steelers are a substantially better team than Buffalo, who just got blasted by a good offense in the second half during their loss to Oakland. Being at home helps the Bills, but Pittsburgh's starting to see its defense come together. A whopping 81 percent of the wagers out there are on the Steelers and every single expert at CBS is picking the Steelers to cover what feels like a low line. Red flags abound.
Cardinals (5-6-1) at Dolphins (7-5)
- Opening line: Dolphins, -2.5 points
- Current line: Cardinals, -2 points
Massive line movement here towards Arizona, which suddenly has playoff life breathed into its team if the Cardinals can win out. That starts against the Dolphins, who are reeling after being thumped by the Ravens. Two concerns in this game: Everyone likes the Cards (72 percent of the wagers, all of the CBS experts, they're one of my best bets), and Arizona is a disappointing 1-4 on the road this year, both straight up and against the spread. Taking Arizona is a bet that Bruce Arians won't let his team take this game lightly given all that's at stake.
Bears (3-9) at Lions (8-4)
- Opening line: Lions, -7 points
- Current line: Lions, -7.5 points
No movement here all week, which is pretty much what you expect from this game. 68 percent of the bets are on the Lions.
Vikings (6-6) at Jaguars (2-10)
- Opening line: Vikings, -3 points
- Current line: Vikings, -3.5 points
Just a slight bit of movement as the Vikings are now 3.5-point favorites. The Jaguars should be an obvious bet here. Minnesota's not great in general and terrible on offense. The Jaguars are at home. But can you trust Blake Bortles? As Nick Kostos and I pointed out on the Roughing the Passer Podcast (subscribe on iTunes here), it's so easy to imagine a scenario where Bortles is either up three or down three and holding the ball with less than two minutes left and trying to pick up yardage to either tie the game or close it out, only he throws the ball right into Xavier Rhodes' stomach on the sideline and the Jags are down four or 10 less than 10 seconds later. Watch it happen.
Saints (5-7) at Buccaneers (7-5)
- Opening line: Pick'em
- Current line: Bucs, -2.5 points
Really weird game here: Drew Brees was the worst quarterback in Fantasy football last week despite matching up against the Lions and playing at home. The Bucs are improved and on a four-game winning streak. But check this: The Saints are 5-0 against the spread on the road this year and Tampa is just 2-4 at home against the spread. 61 percent of the bets are on the Buccaneers. They're a better team, but it's hard to imagine Brees not bouncing back in a quality way. Jameis Winston could just torch this defense though.
Redskins (6-5-1) at Eagles (5-7)
- Opening line: Redskins, -1 point
- Current line: Redskins, -2 points
When I included the Redskins in my best bets, they were a pick 'em, so this line has seen quite a bit of movement this week. Washington has been good against the spread this season, going 8-4, and there are questions swirling about Carson Wentz's mechanics. There aren't any questions about the quality of the talent around him -- the wideouts and running backs just aren't good. Philadelphia's defense has started to get a little leaky and Washington is welcoming back Trent Williams from suspension to boost the rushing attack. Of note, though, Philly is 1-6 on the road and 4-1 at home against the spread this year.
Jets (3-8) at 49ers (1-11)
- Opening line: 49ers, -1 point
- Current line: 49ers, -2.5 point
The 49ers aren't just favored, they're favored by nearly a field goal. Bear in mind, the 49ers have also lost eleven consecutive games. In what world is this team a favorite over anyone? Well, actually it's a world featuring Bryce Petty as the starting quarterback of the New York Jets. Surprisingly only 53 percent of the wagers are on the 49ers, but, again, 11 straight losses. The Niners are just 1-5 against the spread at home this year.
Seahawks (8-3-1) at Packers (6-6)
- Opening line: Seahawks, -2.5 points
- Current line: Seahawks, -3 points
Here's a fun stat from colleague John Breech: Aaron Rodgers is 14-0 in his last 14 December home games. It's supposed to snow heavily in this game, which makes the Packers' offense a little less scary, we suppose, and might explain why Seattle is favored three going into Green Bay despite the loss of Earl Thomas. The Packers are also drawing the majority of the action (55 percent) and the line still hasn't moved. Green Bay is 3-3 at home against the spread this year and Seattle is 3-3 against the spread on the road.
Falcons (7-5) at Rams (4-8)
- Opening line: Falcons, -4.5 points
- Current line: Falcons,- 6.5 points
Jeff Fisher likely spent the week preparing for Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, so the line probably moved up as a result of them not playing on the Falcons anymore. 85 percent of the bets are on the Falcons, primarily because the Rams aren't any good, but it's worth noting the Falcons haven't been great against the spread at home (2-4).
Cowboys (11-1) at Giants (8-4)
- Opening line: Cowboys, -2.5 points
- Current line: Cowboys, -3.5 points
This line hasn't moved a ton, with the general expectation being this should be a close game between the top two teams in the NFC East, but it has crossed the key number of three. The Giants just lost Jason Pierre-Paul for several weeks, making their ability to slow down the Cowboys destructive run game that much more difficult. Everyone is hammering the Cowboys, to the tune of 70 percent of the bets coming down on Dallas. It's not hard to blame people for liking the Cowboys, who are 9-2-1 against the spread this year and 5-1 against the spread on the road. Before getting too excited about Dallas' ATS record, remember they're 0-2 in their last two games against the number.
Ravens (7-5) at Patriots (10-2)
- Opening line: Patriots -9 points
- Current line: Patriots, -7 points
It's not hard to imagine sharp bettors gobbling up nine points for a seven-win Ravens team that has the ability to stop the run and just put up huge points against the Dolphins, finally seeing Joe Flacco come alive. In fact, 55 percent of the bets in this game are on the Ravens, which probably explains the steep drop in the point spread here. New England is 4-2 against the spread at home, while the Ravens are just 1-3-1 against the spread on the road this year.
