Democrat Tim Walz will face Republican Jeff Johnson in the Minnesota governor’s race after Johnson’s convincing upset of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty Tuesday night.
Johnson, a Hennepin County commissioner from Plymouth, was leading Pawlenty, the state’s former two-term governor from Eagan, by nearly 9 percentage points with the vast majority of the votes tallied. Pawlenty conceded the race just after 10 p.m.
Walz, a congressman from Mankato, cruised to victory in a three-way contest in the Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary, beating his closest competitor, state Rep. Erin Murphy of St. Paul by 10 percentage points and state Attorney General Lori Swanson by 17 percentage points.
The results set up the possibility of the governor’s race as a proving ground for President Donald Trump’s brand of populism. Johnson campaigned as the purer of the two Republicans, while Walz, a retired National Guardsman and former high school teacher, positioned himself as a relative moderate among Democrats.
However, Johnson downplayed the prospect of divisive politics following his victory. “My message is not partisan,” he said in a statement.
His path to victory? “Same way we won in August: hard work, traveling around the state and telling them how we’re going to work for Minnesota,” he told the Pioneer Press. “The message does not change.”
Walz sought to cast the race differently. “The coming months will bring an onslaught of divisiveness that Minnesota hasn’t seen in quite some time,” Walz said of Johnson in a message to supporters.
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Perhaps of note: Turnout for Democrats far surpassed that of Republicans, with some 582,000 Democrats voting in the governor’s primary, compared with nearly 320,000 Republicans.
But the dynamics will likely be more complex. Minnesota has garnered national attention for a number of its possible swing congressional seats, and Tuesday’s DFL victory by firebrand U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison, who won the nomination for attorney general, will almost certainly draw Republican fire.
With all precincts reporting Johnson had nearly 53 percent of the vote, while Pawlenty had about 44 percent.
While Johnson claimed to be more aligned with Trump, Pawlenty disputed that during the campaign. Pawlenty argued there were few differences between the two — except that he had a proven track record.
“We’re going to lead a state where we’ve given the government of Minnesota back to the hard-working, forgotten men and women of this state, and you all are going to help us get there!” Johnson told a cheering crowd of supporters in Plymouth.
Pawlenty promptly threw his support behind Johnson.
“They obviously won tonight,” he said of Johnson and his running mate, Donna Bergstrom. “And they’re going to be where we place our hopes now for the future vision of the Republican Party and for where the state of Minnesota is going to head. … We’ll certainly be endorsing his efforts.”
REFERENDUM ON PAWLENTY?
Pawlenty was seen by many as the presumptive favorite in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Not only had he won election to the very office twice — in 2002 and 2006 — but he also rapidly raised funds. Pawlenty entered the race late and didn’t even attend the party’s endorsing conventions in June.
WHERE JOHNSON WON
Strategists will likely examine whether Pawlenty’s late entry was a mistake, or whether other tactical mistakes were made in a race that seemed as if it could serve as a referendum on Pawlenty’s eight years in office.
But Johnson, who always maintained victory was possible despite a disadvantage in fundraising and name recognition, as well as trailing in several polls, cast Pawlenty as an outsider not in touch with down-to-earth Minnesotans. After a short-lived presidential campaign, Pawlenty had moved to Washington, D.C., where he took a job lobbying on behalf of the financial industry.
Johnson, a former state lawmaker, won the GOP primary in 2014 and lost by 6 percentage points to incumbent DFL Gov. Mark Dayton in the general election.
Dayton is not seeking a third term.
DFL’S WILD FINISH
The nomination for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party had narrowed to a two-way race between Walz and Murphy. With all precincts reporting, Walz had about 42 percent, Murphy had about 32 percent and Swanson about 25 percent. Murphy and Swanson both conceded and endorsed Walz.
WHERE WALZ WON
With three prominent candidates vying for votes, the Democratic primary was widely expected to be the least predictable.
Last week, former state employees publicly alleged that Swanson had pressured her staff in the attorney general’s office to do political work on the taxpayer’s dime — an allegation Swanson denied.
It was unclear how the late-breaking allegations might affect the outcome, especially since Minnesotans had set a record pace in early voting — before the allegations surfaced. Swanson always had an uneasy relationship with many DFL loyalists. She entered the race after the DFL convention — in which she dropped out of the endorsement process for attorney general after failing to secure a swift victory. Days later she announced she was running for governor.
DEMOCRATS’ CHOICE
The choice facing Democratic primary voters may or may not have been easy, depending on the issues voters held most dearly. All three candidates are longtime Democrats, but there were notable differences.
Walz positioned himself as a moderate who could take on Pawlenty in a statewide race — and he clearly believed Pawlenty would prevail — while Murphy, a registered nurse from St. Paul and the party-endorsed candidate, staked out the left-most ground among the three candidates. Swanson campaigned mainly on her record of prosecuting fraud and suing 3M for contaminating suburban groundwater.