TALKING TO MYSELF ABOUT THE TRIBE
QUESTION: The Indians have played a little more than a quarter of the season. What do we know about this team?
ANSWER: Their record was 23-20 heading into the weekend. They trailed the Minnesota Twins by 5.5 games. And we know this much – it’s a different Central Division. It’s not like last season, when the Tribe was the only team with a winning record.
Q: What about the payroll cuts?
A: That has been chewed and chewed since the winter. I contended only Michael Brantley is a big loss, although I’ve always been a Yandy Diaz fan. The problems are much deeper than money.
Q: Are in the Indians in trouble in terms of making the playoffs?
A: The Twins are a real contender. The Indians have declined from a year ago. But...
Q: Are you going to pull the ‘turn that frown upside down’ routine?
A: But they are above .500 with starter Mike Clevinger (back injury) and Corey Kluber (broken arm) missing most of the early season. They are above .500 with Francisco Lindor not being fully healthy until May – he’s batting .322 this month. They are above .500 with Jose Ramirez batting .191 and Jason Kipnis looking for his swing, though perhaps he found it Thursday with two homers and six RBI.
Q: So you’re subscribing to the 'almost everything went wrong’ argument and the team is still in contention?
A: For now, that’s how the Indians have to approach it. They have a chance to make the playoffs. It’s stupid to suddenly think it’s time to run a fire sale and dump veterans.
Q: Their offense is horrible, right?
A: They are in the bottom three of about every significant category. After his hot start in April (.294), Carlos Santana is batting .208 in May. And he’s been their best overall hitter.
Q: How can you have any faith in this team?
A: The Indians have the second-best bullpen (2.89 ERA) in the American League. Give Manager Terry Francona a strong bullpen and he can make up for some weaknesses with the team in other areas.
Q: What else?
A: Clevinger may be back by the end of June ... or sooner. He is ahead of schedule. Jefry Rodriguez (3.45 ERA) has made only five starts this season, but he looks like a viable member of the rotation. Despite the injuries, the Indians still have a strong pitching staff.
Q: Are you really going to push the “a team with strong pitching can get hot in the playoffs” theory?
A: It sometimes is true. Granted, that was not the case in 2017 and 2018. Part of the problem was Kluber’s 10.36 ERA in three playoff starts over that span. The bullpen gave up 13 earned runs in 10 post-season innings in 2018. The bullpen was a disaster all last season with 4.40 ERA.
Brad Hand has converted his first 11 save opportunities this season. (Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com)cleveland.com
Q: And that has changed?
A: So far, Francona has a lock-down closer in Brad Hand (11-of-11 in saves). Nick Wittgren, Adam Cimber, Dan Otero, Tyler Clippard and others have helped the Indians win when they actually get a lead.
Q: Come on, they don’t hit. Why do you keep ignoring that?
A: In terms of defense, the Indians rank No. 7 out of 15 teams in the American League, according to Fangraphs.com.
Q: Who’s talking about defense? Besides, the Twins are No. 1. What about the offense?
A: That’s the frustrating part about this season. The Indians continue to pitch well with Kluber and Clevinger hurt. In his last four starts, Trevor Bauer has also been having a hard time - a 6.74 ERA. Yet, they are above .500.
Q: What’s their record against teams with winning records?
A: It’s 4-6. They have played a fairly soft schedule. Defensively, they are respectable. But when Kipnis and Ramirez are batting a combined .204 with 6 home runs and 24 RBI, the offense is in trouble.
Q: Will they snap out of it?
A: I don’t know. There are moments of hope. Ramirez hit two homers in a game in Chicago, but looked painfully lost Friday night. Kipnis belted two against Baltimore Thursday. Ramirez has a dismal .588 OPS, the worst of any regular on the Tribe. Ramirez had OPS of .939 and .957 in the last two years, .844 for his career.
Q: What is the fascination with OPS?
A: It’s a stat that combines on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. It values both power and reaching base, giving added value to walks. Batting average doesn’t do that. But when you’re batting around .200, you don’t need a lot of other data to show the ineptitude.
Q: Do you think Carlos Gonzalez will hit?
A: He went into the weekend with 101 plate appearances. Because he signed near the end of spring training, the Indians figured it would take about 100 at bats for him to find his timing. He’s hitting .234 (.596 OPS) with two homers and 6 RBI. He’s batting .160 vs. lefties.
Q: All those left-handed hitters...
A: Are a problem. That’s why it’s important for rookie Oscar Mercado and Jordan Luplow to hit. Mecado was just promoted. Luplow is hitting .306 in May. They swing from the right side. Center fielder Leonys Martin is batting .150 (6-for-40) vs. lefties compared to .260 vs. righties.
Q: Bottom line?
A: It’s easy to dismiss the Indians because the offense has been so bad. But it also is premature, because there are good reasons to wait. But I confess, I’m worried.