Midterm Election Poll: Kansas’ 2nd District, Watkins vs. Davis
We polled voters in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District.
This poll was conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 15.
Can a Democrat prevail in deep red Kansas? We made 17066 calls, and 500 people spoke to us.
Our poll shows a close race.
Our poll result is about what was expected. But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 500 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College. Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 17066 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answerTo preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
Paul Davis is the former minority leader in the State House. 37% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 36% don’t know
Based on 500 interviews
Steve Watkins is a West Point graduate and a former Army Ranger. 21% favorable rating; 26% unfavorable; 53% don’t know
Based on 500 interviews
This district includes most of eastern Kansas except for the core of the Kansas City metropolitan area. Like the rest of the state, it is strongly Republican-leaning, but the retirement of the incumbent, with no obvious G.O.P. successor, and a strong Democratic candidate have thrown the outcome into doubt.
Mr. Watkins, a newcomer to politics who has spent much of his adult life outside Kansas, prevailed in a seven-way Republican primary over more established candidates, some of whom criticized his skimpy voting record and reliance on a PAC financed by his father.
Mr. Davis, who faced no primary opposition, has emphasized his community ties and willingness to work across the aisle. A lawyer, he served in the Kansas State House from 2002 to 2015.
Mr. Davis was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014, and he carried this district while losing statewide to the incumbent Republican, Sam Brownback.
Previous election results:
| 2016 President | +18 Trump |
| 2012 President | +13 Romney |
| 2016 House | +28 Rep. |
It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
| Polls | Dates | Davis | Watkins | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research n = 902 lv | Oct. 27-29 | 44% | 45% | Watkins +1 |
| Siena College/New York Times 501 lv | Oct. 27-30 | 41% | 37% | Davis +4 |
| Emerson College 231 lv | Oct. 26-28 | 41% | 48% | Watkins +7 |
| Emerson College 243 rv | Sept. 26-28 | 35% | 31% | Davis +4 |
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Hey, I’m Alex Burns, a politics correspondent for The Times. I’ll give you the latest reporting and intel on the midterms and take your questions from the campaign trail.
How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
If sampling error were the only type of error in a poll, we would expect candidates who trail by one point in a poll of 500 people to win about two out of every five races. But this probably understates the total error by a factor of two.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Assumptions about who is going to vote may be particularly important in this race.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
| Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 217k | Davis +2 |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | 221k | Watkins +2 |
| Our estimate | 228k | Davis +1 |
| People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 232k | Davis +1 |
| People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 242k | Davis +1 |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | 277k | Watkins +2 |
| Every active registered voter | 400k | Davis +6 |
All estimates based on 500 interviews
In these scenarios, higher turnout tends to be better for Democrats.
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
| Called | Inter- viewed | Success rate | Our responses | Goal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 1263 | 58 | 1 in 22 | 12% | 8% |
| 30 to 64 | 8056 | 253 | 1 in 32 | 51% | 57% |
| 65 and older | 4007 | 189 | 1 in 21 | 38% | 35% |
| Male | 5473 | 232 | 1 in 24 | 46% | 47% |
| Female | 7855 | 268 | 1 in 29 | 54% | 53% |
| White | 11306 | 422 | 1 in 27 | 84% | 85% |
| Nonwhite | 852 | 30 | 1 in 28 | 6% | 6% |
| Cell | 9686 | 330 | 1 in 29 | 66% | — |
| Landline | 3642 | 170 | 1 in 21 | 34% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Davis +7 |
| Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls | Davis +7 |
| Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Davis +4 |
| Our estimate | Davis +1 |
All estimates based on 500 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 12 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans.
Issues and other questions
We’re asking voters here several questions about immigration, including whether they’d like to eliminate Immigration and Customs Enforcement (an agency known as ICE), whether it bothers them to hear immigrants speaking a foreign language in public places and whether they think illegal immigrants living in the United States are more likely than American citizens to commit serious crimes.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 48% | 45% | 7% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Do you favor abolishing ICE, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 30% | 58% | 12% |
Do you support a bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Do you support or oppose a federal ban on the sale of assault-style guns and high-capacity magazines?
| support | oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 52% | 42% | 7% |
Are iIllegal immigrants living in the United States more likely than American citizens to commit serious crimes?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 29% | 62% | 9% |
Does it bother you to hear immigrants speak a foreign language in a public place?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 30% | 64% | 6% |
Are there places in your area, say within a mile of where you live, where you're afraid to walk alone at night?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 23% | 73% | 4% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = 268 / 53% of voters | 50% | 39% | 12% |
| Male 232 / 47% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
Age
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 58 / 8% of voters | 66% | 27% | 7% |
| 30 to 44 97 / 18% | 57% | 35% | 9% |
| 45 to 64 156 / 38% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| 65 and older 189 / 36% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
Race
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White n = 434 / 87% of voters | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Nonwhite 61 / 12% | 54% | 31% | 15% |
Race and education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonwhite n = 61 / 12% of voters | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| White, college grad 232 / 35% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| White, not college grad 202 / 53% | 36% | 52% | 12% |
Education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or Less n = 89 / 26% of voters | 40% | 55% | 5% |
| Some College Educ. 137 / 33% | 33% | 48% | 18% |
| 4-year College Grad. 148 / 23% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| Post-grad. 122 / 17% | 60% | 31% | 9% |
Party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat n = 176 / 31% of voters | 91% | 4% | 5% |
| Republican 170 / 39% | 12% | 82% | 7% |
| Independent 119 / 22% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
| Another party 19 / 5% | 14% | 53% | 33% |
Party registration
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 184 / 31% of voters | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| Republican 204 / 48% | 17% | 71% | 13% |
| Other 112 / 20% | 49% | 33% | 18% |
Intention of voting
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain n = 296 / 60% of voters | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Very likely 152 / 32% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Somewhat likely 23 / 4% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Not very likely 9 / 1% | 32% | 37% | 31% |
| Not at all likely 8 / 1% | 64% | 8% | 28% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.18. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.