Karl Rove's announced departure from the White House came as a surprise. The architect of the Bush presidency and acclaimed Republican strategist will step down at the end of this month "to spend more time with his family". The timing is interesting and there has been speculation as to his real reasons for leaving.
In a recent piece on Alternet by former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, he writes that one of his associates at VIPS (Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity), Phil Geraldi, believes Rove's resignation has to do with a disagreement over the planned upcoming strike against Iran.
In short, it seems possible that Rove, who is no one's dummy and would not want to be required to "spin" an unnecessary war on Iran, may have lost the battle with Cheney over the merits of a military strike on Iran, and only then decided -- or was urged -- to spend more time with his family.
More details to follow:
It is beginning to be more and more clear that the Bush Administration plans to strike at Iran, most likely within the next 6 months.
First some brief background information on VIPS.
McGovern writes that since 9/11 (when everything changed) that VIPS has been using their analytical tools on the US leadership, which he writes, "is a bit jarring" and that "this is necessary because, with very few exceptions, American journalists put their jobs at grave risk if they expose things like fraudulent wars".
Some might be surprised to learn that much of the information used in intelligence analysis is available in the open media.
Generally speaking, 80 percent of the information one needs to form judgments on key intelligence targets or issues is available in open media. It helps to have been trained -- as my contemporaries and I had the good fortune to be trained -- by past masters of the discipline of media analysis, which began in a structured way in targeting Japanese and German media in the 1940s. But, truth be told, anyone with a high school education can do it. It is not rocket science.
He provides an interesting example from mid 2002 (pre shock and awe) when Saddam Hussein's foreign minister, Naji Sabri was "turned" and was working for the CIA. He told us there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
The Bush Administration's reaction would not surprise anyone today, however ...
My former colleagues, perhaps a bit naively, were quite sure this would come as a welcome relief to President George W. Bush and his advisers. Instead, they were told that the White House had no further interest in reporting from Sabri; rather, that the issue was not really WMD, it was "regime change." (Don't feel embarrassed if you did not know this; although it is publicly available, our corporate-owned, war profiteering media has largely suppressed this key story.)
Now back to attacking Iran.
Many American's appear to be convinced that we will not attack Iran because it would be crazy for Bush, a lame duck president to embark upon such a reckless adventure, especially in view of the disaster Iraq has turned out to be. As McGovern accurately points out:
... rationality and common sense have not exactly been the strong suit of this administration. Bush has placed himself in a neoconservative bubble that operates with its own false sense of reality.
Once again the establishment media is beating the drums of war. In recent weeks there have been almost too many articles to keep up with. McGovern points to an article in the Washington Post from 22 August in which Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is:
"supplying the weapons that are killing a growing number of American soldiers in Iraq," that it is "waging war against the United States and trying to kill as many American soldiers as possible." Designating Iran a "specially designated global terrorist" organization, says the Post, "seems to be the least the United States should be doing, giving the soaring number of Iranian-sponsored bomb attacks in Iraq."
A quick sampling of other recent attack Iran articles which have appeared this month follows below.
Asia Times Online - US Steps Closer to War with Iran
Time Magazine - Prelude to an Attack on Iran
Bolton: I ‘Absolutely’ Hope The U.S. Will Attack Iran In The Next ‘Six Months’
Salon.com - Shock and Horror in August / Iran Attack
Global Research - America Will Attack Iran, Syria in October
We also have Target Iran by Scott Ritter and Iran Plans in The New Yorker by Seymour Hersh from last year.
As for the reality of the situation regarding Iran and Nukes let's go back to McGovern's article.
He writes that the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has been ready since February but has been sent back four times "no doubt because its conclusions do not support what Cheney and Woolsey (whom McGovern regards as an 'arch-neocon', and who claims that in a few months or at best, a few years, Iran could have the bomb) are telling the president, and through the ... press telling the rest of us as well".
The early 2005 NIE stated that, according to McGovern's article -
... Iran probably could not acquire a nuclear weapon until "early to mid-next decade," a formula memorized and restated by Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell at his confirmation hearing in February. One can safely assume that McConnell had been fully briefed on the first "final draft" of the new estimate, which has now been in limbo for half a year. And I would wager that the conclusions of the new estimate resemble those of the NIE of 2005 far too closely to suit Cheney.
Expect the cheer-leading to continue. It won't be the first time we've been dragged down this road with Cheney, Bush and the establishment media. As for Karl Rove's real reasons for leaving, perhaps we'll never know. Giraldi's contention is speculation based on available information. There is one thing we can count on and that is that the lies and arrogant behavior of this administration will never cease until the last of them is gone.