Projecting The 2016-17 ACC Basketball Season (Part Two)

Going into last season, I thought the ACC had a chance to get 10 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

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A couple of teams I thought had a chance to develop into tournament teams didn’t make it (Clemson, Florida State), injuries killed another contender (N.C. State) and Louisville – which was an NCAA quality team – self-imposed a one-year NCAA Tournament ban.

As a result, the ACC ended up with seven NCAA teams – seven teams that won an all-time record 19 NCAA Tournament games.

Yesterday I listed what I believe are the eight strongest ACC teams going into next season. All eight should be NCAA teams – although something (injuries? chemistry? probation?) will probably cause at least one to stumble.

That leaves seven more ACC teams to look at. I wouldn’t be surprised if two or three of these teams put it together and make the field.

Does that mean the ACC could produce 10 NCAA teams next year?

It’s certainly possible if everything goes right.

Of course, it never does. I think in the end, the ACC might up its NCAA total to eight teams in 2016-17. The problem is identifying the right eight teams. At this point, with so many roster issues still to be decided, that’s difficult to do.

But here’s a look at the seven ACC teams that I see in the second division of the league:

SYRACUSE

• Finished eligibility: G Michael Gbinije (17.5 ppg, 4.3 apg), F Trevor Cooney (12.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg)
• Transfer out: F Kaleb Joseph (0.8 ppg), F Chinoso Obokoh (1.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg)
• NBA early entry: Malachi Richardson (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg) -- might return
• Returning: C DuJuan Coleman (4.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg), F Tyler Lydon (10.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg), F Tyler Roberson (8.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg), G Frank Howard (1.6 ppg, 1.8 apg)
• Transfer in:C Paschal Chukwu (7-2, averaged 2.6 ppg at Providence)
• Recruits: G Tyus Battle (4-star), F Matthew Moyer (4-star)

Comments: It’s difficult to measure how much the loss of two fifth-year senior guards will mean to his team. But if Richardson returns to team with the rapidly developing Lydon, Coach Jim Boeheim will have a strong core to build around. Roberson is a force on the boards and Coleman, who won a fifth-year hardship ruling, is a serviceable big man. Battle can contribute immediately on the wing.

Biggest concern: Depth. There are currently just seven scholarship players on the roster – eight if Richardson returns (but he’s up to No. 20 on ESPN’s big board). That doesn’t leave much room for error if a player or two disappoints. Boeheim is looking for a grad transfer to help (Michigan point guard Spike Albrecht?), but the Richardson decision is huge for the Orange.

NOTRE DAME

• Finished eligibility: C Zack Auguste (14.0 ppg, 10.7 rpg), F Austin Burgett (1.9 ppg)
• Transfer out: none
• NBA early entry: G Demetrius Jackson (15.8 ppg, 4.7 apg), F V.J. Beachem (12.0 ppg, 44.4 3PT) -- might return
• Returning: F Steve Vasturia (11.4 ppg, 3.2 apg), F Bonzie Colson (11.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg), G Rex Pflueger (2.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg), F Matt Ryan (5.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg), G Matt Farrell (2.6 ppg), G Austin Torres (0.9 ppg)
• Transfer in: None
• Recruit: F Elijah Burns (redshirt), G Temple Gibbs (4-star), F John Mooney (3-star), G Nikola Djogo (NR)

Comments: Mike Brey has run a remarkably consistent program – he’s reached the NCAA Tournament in eight of the last 10 years and has had back-to-back Elite Eight appearances. But he lost the two best players off his ’15 team and lost the two best players off the ’16 team – without adding an impact player to the roster in that time. The graduation of Auguste is a huge blow. Brey doesn’t have a big man anywhere close to him on his roster. He might have survived that, but the additional loss of Jackson was the real blow. There are some nice players left – Vasturia and Colson have killed Duke the last two years; Pflueger made some big plays as a freshman. Beachem probably returns and that will help. But it’s going to be tough for Brey to keep his NCAA streak intact.

Biggest concern: Size. Colson is an undersized power forward. Burns (6-9, 235) and Mooney (6-9, 240) are the only real big men on the roster and both are unproven (and modestly ranked).

N.C. STATE

• Finished eligibility: none
• Transfer out: F Cody Martin (6.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg), F Caleb Martin (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
• NBA early entry: G Cat Barber (23.5 ppg, 4.5 apg), C Abdul-Malik Abu (12.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg) -- might return, F Beejay Anya (4.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) -- might return
• Returning: F Maverick Rowan (12.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Leonard Freeman (3.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg), F Shaun Kirk (0.7 ppg), G Terry Henderson (injured)
• Transfers in: G Torin Dorn (6-5, averaged 12.0 ppg at Charlotte)
• Recruits: G Dennis Smith (5-star)

Comments: If everything goes right for State in the next few weeks – meaning that Abu and Anya pull out of the draft -- then the Pack will have pretty much the same team as missed the NCAA Tournament (and the NIT) last season. Smith is an elite point guard talent who should soften the blow of Barber’s departure. Dorn and a healthy Henderson will be a slight upgrade on the Martin twins. Plus, Freeman should be healthy, Rowan should be better in his second season and maybe Kirk will be useful as a soph. But Mark Gottfried still needs a couple of bodies to make the ’17 Pack better than last year and he’s working the grad transfer market hard. If he can add a couple of useful players – and Abu and Anya return – State can be in the NCAA mix.

Biggest concern: Numbers. His roster is still in flux. Gottfried needs a spring fix. He needs Abu to return. In another two months, the Wolfpack outlook could be very promising or very ugly. Best bet is UNLV big man Ben Carter.

CLEMSON

• Finished eligibility: G Jordan Roper (8.8 ppg, 3.8 apg), G Josh Smith (1.2 ppg), C Landry Nnoko (8.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg)
• Transfers out: G Austin Ajukawa (3.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg in 2015)
• NBA early entry: Jaron Blossomgame (18.7 pph, 6.7 rpg) -- might return
• Returning: G Gabe Devoe (5.3 ppg), G Ty Hudson (2.4 ppg), G Avry Holmes (10.0 ppg, 2.6 apg), F Donte Graham (10.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg), C Sidy Djitte (5.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg)
• Transfers in: G Sheldon Mitchell (6-3, averaged 4.3 ppg, 3.3 apg at Vanderbilt), G Marcquise Reed (6-4, averaged 15.1 ppg at Robert Morris), F Elijah Thomas (6-9, 250 averaged 3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg at Texas A&M … eligible in December)
• Recruits: F Scott Spencer (3-star)

Comments: It’s all pretty simple – if Blossomgame pulls out of the draft and returns, the Tigers have a good chance to move into the ACC’s middle echelon and compete for an NCAA bid. If he stays in the draft, the Tigers are looking at another NIT bid. Blossomgame is one of the most versatile players in the ACC and can combine with Graham to give the Tigers a pair of dynamite forwards. The graduation of Roper hurts, but Holmes is coming fast and the addition of Mitchell, a point guard with ACC skill, solidifies the backcourt. The loss of Nnoko – a great rim protector -- hurts, but Djitte is almost as good offensively and on the boards. Thomas should help in the post when he becomes eligible in December. He didn’t do much at Texas A&M, but he was once a top recruit.

Biggest concerns: Blossomgame. When he first entered the draft, the Tigers were confident that he would return. But it is not 100 percent certain that he’s back. There is nobody else on this roster who catch match his variety of skills – he was not only the team’s best scorer and best rebounder, but he was – by far – the team’s best 3-point threat.

WAKE FOREST

• Finished eligibility: Devin Thomas (15.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg), Cody Miller-McIntyre (9.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.0 apg)
• Transfer out: F Rondale Watson (3.1 ppg, 1.6 apg), C Andre Washington (1.6 ppg, 0.9 rpg in 2015), G Cornelius Hudson (7.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg))
• NBA early entry: None
• Returning: G Bryant Crawford (13.8 ppg, 4.4 apg), C John Collins (7.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg), C Doral Moore (3.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg), F Konstantinos Mitoglou (9.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg), G Mitchell Wilbekin (7.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg), G Greg McClinton (3.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
• Transfers in: Matt Williams (6-5 Sr. averaged 8.1 ppg at Central Florida); Austin Arians (6-6, averaged 14.4 ppg at Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Keyshawn Woods (6-3, So., G UNC-Charlotte, led CUSA in 3-point percentage in 2014-15)
• Recruits: G Brandon Childress (4-star), F Richard Washington (3-star), C Samuel Japhet-Mathias (3-star), F Donovan Mitchell (2-star)

Comments: Hard to tell where this program is going. The Deacs looked to be a breakout team last December, but only Boston College kept Danny Manning’s second Wake team out of the ACC cellar. Thomas was a headache, but he was also the team’s most talented player – and Miller-McIntyre played a big role. Manning has a potential star in Crawford and rising soph big men Collins and Moore have potential. Mitoglau is a 6-10 guy who plays like a 6-5 wing – his 3-point shot is his best weapon. Childress arrives with a famous name and a good rep, but he’s not a top 100 prospect in the rsci. The three transfers will have a lot to do with how far this Wake team goes – Woods is an impressive 3-point shooter; Arians is a fifth-year guy who probably would have been a pre-season All-Horizon League pick.

Biggest concern: Chemistry, Manning juggled his lineup all last season, never settling on a solid rotation. He has a lot of potential pieces this season – but how many are ACC-quality players? The young coach has got to sort through his roster and figure out who should play.

GEORGIA TECH

• Finished eligibility: F Charles Mitchell (10.1 ppg, 9.7 rpg), G Adam Smith (15.0 ppg, 41.4 3PT), G Georges Michael-Hunt (16.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.4 apg), F Nick Jacobs (10.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), F James White (3.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg)
• Transfers out: None
• NBA early entry: None
• Returning: C Ben Lammers (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg), G Tadric Jackson (4.7 ppg), G Corey Heyward (0.6 ppg), F Quinton Stephens (5.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg), G Josh Heath (1.7 ppg),, F Abdoulaye Gueye (0.5ppg. in 2015, redshirted)
• Transfers in: None
• Recruits: F Sylvester Ogbonda (redshirt), F Romello White (4-star), F Christian Matthews (3-star), F Josh Okugie (NR)

Comments: Former coach Brian Gregory was running the program on grad transfer fumes for the last few years. Now the transfers are all gone after a deep NIT run. What’s left for new coach Josh Pastner? Well, Lammers is a promising young big man. Stephens can get hot from 3-point range … that’s about it. Three veteran guards who have never demonstrated even average ACC ability … a couple of redshirt forwards … one quality recruit. Pastner, more known for his recruiting ability than his coaching skills, convinced White to re-affirm his commitment. That helps, but not enough.

Biggest concern: Recruiting. This is a write-off year. Mike Krzyzewski couldn’t win with this roster, much less Pastner. The new Georgia Tech coach will be hitting the recruiting trail, trying to find the players that will make the Jackets competitive in 2017-18.

BOSTON COLLEGE

• Finished eligibility: G Eli Carter(16.0 pp., 4.0 apg), C Dennis Clifford (9.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg)
• Transfers out: G Matt Milon (5.5 pph, .494 3PT), F Idy Diallo (1.7 ppg)
• NBA early entry: none
• Returning: G Jerome Robinson (11.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), G Darryl Hicks (2.9 ppg), F Garland Owens (4.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg), F Ervins Meznieks (3.5 ppg), F A.J. Turner (5.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg), C Johncarlos Reyes (2.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg), G Sammy Barnes-Thompson (5.5 ppg)
• Transfers in: F Connar Tava (6-7, averaged 12.2 ppg, 6.2 rebounds at Western Michigan in 2015)
• Recruits: G Ty Graves (3-star), F Mike Sagay (3-star), F Nic Popovic (NR), G Kyran Bowman (NR)

Comments: Last season, 14 of the 15 ACC teams were competitive. Even 14th place Wake beat Big Ten champ Indiana, plus UCLA, LSU and Arkansas. Meanwhile BC lost 19 ACC games without a win and will start the season with a 20-game ACC losing streak. There appears little hope for any real success next season. The team lost its clearcut two best players off last year’s disaster. Robinson is the only player recruited by Jim Christian that looks like he might turn out to be a better than average ACC player. Owens is an impressive athlete. Maybe Turner and Barnes-Thompson can take a big step. There is not a four-star recruit in the incoming class and grad transfer Tava is hard to get excited about. A lot will have to go well for this team to break that losing streak next season.

Biggest concern: Job security. Nobody expected Christian to turn things around overnight, but after three seasons, you’d expect SOME progress. The Eagles were worse after year two than when he took over. If they don't show something next season – either on the court or on the recruiting trail – Christian may not be around much longer.