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The 2017 NFL season hit its halfway point somewhere around last Wednesday, as an uneventful weekday marked 8.5 weeks since opening night. While a handful of 2016 standbys like the Patriots, Chiefs, and Steelers appear primed for playoff returns, the random wheel of parity has dropped teams like the Cowboys, Falcons, and Packers from the league’s upper tier and behind division rivals in the race for the postseason.
An ever-widening second class has stepped up at their expense. While surprises like the 7-1 Eagles and 5-2 Saints have clear paths to return to the second season, even disappointing or bewildering teams like the Jaguars, Bengals, and Cardinals still have oil in their lamps as they search for the right track. As a result, the latter half of the ‘17 campaign will be filled with dramatic games and hope-crushing battles.
Here are the biggest games each NFL team will have to face as they race into the final stretch of the regular season. Most will have playoff implications — but a few are just a matter of playing out the string before firing up the 2018 NFL draft process.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Week 16 at New England
Buffalo’s swarming defense has it looking like a playoff contender for the first time this millennium. To get there, the Bills will have to measure themselves against the team that’s beaten them in 28 of their last 32 meetings. Beating the Pats at New Era Field, where the team’s gotten off to a 4-0 start, is important. But the true test of their playoff readiness will come with one week to go in the regular season. Gillette Stadium will be rocking on Christmas Eve, giving the Bills their toughest matchup of the year.
Miami Dolphins: Week 10 at Carolina
Miami still has two difficult tests against the Patriots remaining, but a Monday Night Football showcase against the Panthers could determine whether the team’s playoff hopes are for real. Beating Cam Newton and a resurgent Carolina team would help prove that Week 6’s upset win over the Falcons was no fluke — and that the Dolphins have the chops to hang with the rest of the league’s postseason contenders.
New England Patriots: Week 15 at Pittsburgh
At the halfway point of the 2017 season, two other contenders have emerged in the AFC — and the Patriots have already lost to one of them. The other is a familiar foe: a Steelers team New England dispatched in last year’s conference championship game. Pittsburgh has an offense built to exploit the Pats’ weaknesses, and a still-rising defense has the talent to limit Tom Brady. With playoff positioning on the line, expect this game to get flexed into primetime.
New York Jets: Week 13 vs. Kansas City
As the 2017 season rounds into its home stretch, the Jets could still be clinging to slim playoff hopes or leaning hard into a top draft pick. How they perform against the Chiefs could dictate which path they choose in December.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Week 14 at Pittsburgh
The Ravens have already lost to the Steelers once this year, but they have a chance to return the favor in December — and it’s a chance to avenge their Christmas Day loss to them last season. Even if the Steelers maintain their AFC North lead, the wild card race could still be wide open. Thanks to a manageable schedule, the Ravens have a good shot to be right in the thick of it.
Cincinnati Bengals: Week 13 vs. Pittsburgh
The Bengals, borderline unwatchable early in the season, still have their playoff hopes alive and are just one victory over the Jaguars away from climbing out of an 0-3 hole and to .500 on the season. Given the weak state of the AFC North, that foundation would give them the chance at a postseason run, but a date with archnemesis Pittsburgh could be the speed bump that tears apart their chassis and finally sends head coach Marvin Lewis to the unemployment line.
Cleveland Browns: Week 16 at Chicago
The Bears have been better than advertised but still might be Cleveland’s best opportunity to steal a win in 2017. Other candidates include a game at the Bengals and a week where they host the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Both seem like long shots.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 15 vs. New England
If they handle the Patriots at home, the Steelers can get revenge for last year’s AFC Championship loss and prove
a) they can shut down Tom Brady
b) their stellar offense can wreck the Patriots’ lackluster defense
Given the way the first half of the season has shaken out, this game could also determine which of these teams earns a first-round bye in the postseason.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Week 14 at Jacksonville
The Texans have a relatively tame schedule to finish up their season, and while a date with the Steelers looms in Week 16, the Sunday prior should give the team the chance to right some wrongs. Doing that without Deshaun Watson will be difficult. Houston scored only seven points in its season opener against the Jaguars with Tom Savage at quarterback. He’ll have to be better in December.
Indianapolis Colts: Week 17 vs. Houston
Whatever puts this season in the rear view and gives Andrew Luck more pressure-free time to rehab.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 14 vs. Seattle
The Jaguars are Schrodinger’s team in 2017; no one really knows if they’re good or bad, and years of conditioning have trained fans to avoid looking into the box to find out. The middle quadrant of the Jacksonville schedule is weak, with games against sub-.500 teams like the Bengals, Chargers, Browns, Cardinals, and Colts looming. That’ll give the Jags the chance to build some momentum and pad their resume before facing the Seahawks’ punishing defense to kick off the final four-game stretch of the season.
Tennessee Titans: Week 13 vs. Houston
Tennessee has been unable to build on last year’s breakout season, struggling without Marcus Mariota in stretches this fall and needing overtime to climb over .500 with a win over the Browns. Fortunately, the final nine games of the Titans’ season includes only three teams that currently have winning records — and a chance to extract some revenge in the race to the top of the AFC South. The Texans blew them out, 57-14, the last time these teams met, and this time, they won’t have to face Watson.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Week 17 vs. Kansas City
The Broncos have a murderous lineup awaiting — which is not what you want to see when you’re a 3-4 club forced to start Brock Osweiler at quarterback. Games against the Eagles, Patriots, Dolphins, and Washington loom, but if Denver can escape from that gauntlet relatively unscathed, then a rematch with Kansas City could ultimately be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting out January for the second straight season.
Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 vs. Buffalo
The Chiefs’ schedule gets significantly easier after their Week 10 bye, but a midseason game against the Bills has transitioned from “easy win” to “mettle tester.” Buffalo’s rising defense and efficient, if underpowered, offense has a traditional bottom feeder floating to the top of the AFC’s pecking order. A matchup between the two could create some major separation at the top of a crowded conference race.
Oakland Raiders: Week 11 vs. New England (in Mexico City)
Are the Raiders the 12-4 outfit from 2016 that found a way to beat the Chiefs in Week 7, or are they the one that managed just 67 points in five losses so far? They can show they’re the former against a New England defense that allowed 300-plus passing yards in each of its first six games of the season. The Patriots have righted themselves in recent weeks, but if Oakland is going to prove its offense can get back on track, Mexico City is its best opportunity to do so.
Los Angeles Chargers: Week 10 at Jacksonville
Not one of the Chargers’ wins this season has come over a team with a winning record — but all but one of their losses have come by eight points or fewer. With five defeats on the season, they’ll need to handle the Jaguars when they come back from their bye to keep slim playoff hopes alive.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Week 10 at Atlanta
Green Bay’s comeback win in last postseason’s Divisional round robbed us of the Cowboys-Falcons fireworks we deserved in the NFC title game. Instead, two disappointing versions of those teams will meet in Atlanta hoping to kick-start a run back to the playoffs. The winner will take up the mantle as the Eagles’ biggest challenger in the last half of the season.
New York Giants: Week 10 at San Francisco
A 49ers win would help boost the Giants’ odds for 2018’s No. 1 overall pick. After a 1-6 start, that might be the best New York can hope for.
Philadelphia Eagles: Week 17 vs. Dallas
Carson Wentz went 1-1 against the Cowboys as a rookie, but the win came in a meaningless Week 17 showdown after Philadelphia had already been eliminated from playoff contention and Dallas had already locked down the top seed in the NFC. 2017’s final-week replay should carry more drama. The two teams meet in Dallas in Week 11, and that game could have major repercussions on how important this New Year’s Eve game becomes.
Washington: Week 13 at Dallas
Kirk Cousins’ team has struggled against divisional competition, losing to the Eagles (twice) and Cowboys by double digits in an 0-3 start. Washington doesn’t look like a playoff team, which is disappointing after last season’s near-miss at 8-7-1. Any hope of a late-season rally runs through Dallas, where the club would battle the franchise for the right to challenge Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East standings.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Week 13 vs. San Francisco
Mitchell Trubisky needs to build optimism for the 2018 season. The 49ers have struggled on pass defense, allowing opposing QBs to post a 103.5 rating in their last three games. This could be the catalyst the UNC product needs to stake himself as a legitimate NFL starter.
Detroit Lions: Week 17 vs. Green Bay
The Lions’ weak schedule provides promise that they can rebound from their 3-4 start thanks to games against the Browns, Bears (twice), and Bengals. While a home game against the Vikings will be a difficult test to pass, the team’s New Year’s Eve game against the Packers team that stole the NFC North title last winter should be the circled date on Detroit’s calendar. Add in the possibility that Aaron Rodgers could be healed from his broken collarbone, and you’ve got a can’t-miss rivalry game with potentially huge postseason implications at play.
Green Bay Packers: Week 17 at Detroit
See above. Will Rodgers play again in 2017? The final week of the season in Michigan may be his only chance — and once again, it could determine whether or not Green Bay keeps its playoff streak alive.
Minnesota Vikings: Week 13 at Atlanta
The Vikings, with Case Keenum at the helm and rushing the ball more than ever despite the loss of Dalvin Cook, stand atop the NFC North with a 1.5 game lead over a Packer team forced to start Brett Hundley for the foreseeable future. That’s given them a 78 percent chance to make the playoffs through eight games — but that figure would jump significantly if they could navigate their way through a difficult back-end schedule. In five consecutive weeks they’ll have to face Washington, the Rams, Lions, Falcons, and Panthers, and any of those games could have stood out as Minnesota’s most important. A road game against the defending NFC champs is a chance to make a statement, however.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Week 17 vs. Carolina
The NFC South is currently a three-way dance between the Falcons, Panthers, and Saints for the division crown. A final-week showdown between division rivals could dictate who gets a banner this offseason and who misses the playoff. A Week 16 battle at New Orleans will also be paramount to Atlanta’s NFC championship defense.
Carolina Panthers: Week 13 at New Orleans
The Saints came into Charlotte in Week 3 and put a beating on the Panthers, limiting them to just 13 points in a three-touchdown rout. Carolina will have to prove it can get past New Orleans to remain atop the South, and it will have to do so with even less firepower than the first time these teams met. The Panthers have since traded former No. 1 wideout Kelvin Benjamin, who had only two catches for 8 yards the first time these teams met, to Buffalo.
New Orleans Saints: Week 10 at Buffalo
Is the Saints’ revival for real? Or is it just another smokescreen en route to another seven-win season? We’ll have a better idea after Week 10 when they face another surprising contender in Buffalo. The Bills have won four straight at home, and their defense will provide a major test for Drew Brees. If New Orleans can continue its high-scoring ways at New Era Field, it will be tough to see how anyone in the South will be able to stop them.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 10 vs. New York Jets
The promise of last year’s nine-win campaign has sloughed off like rotten meat, and with seven games remaining against teams with winning records, that disappointment won’t wash off anytime soon. Tampa Bay’s most winnable game comes midseason against the Jets. The loser might be better off, thanks to its enhanced draft position.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Week 9 vs. San Francisco
Much like the Bears, the Cardinals will bring a shaky quarterback in to carve up the 49ers’ weak passing defense. Only in their case, it’s not a precocious rookie with a rocket arm and his whole career ahead of him; it’s Drew Stanton. Beating San Francisco will draw Arizona back to .500, but injuries to its top QB and RB will make it a tenuous trip outside of a losing record.
San Francisco 49ers: Week 10 vs. New York Giants
Trading for Jimmy Garoppolo has lessened the Niners’ need to secure the No. 1 overall pick and draft a franchise quarterback. But even if the former Patriots backup is the answer, trading down from the top spot would give San Francisco the kind of draft capital it needs to overhaul a roster with holes at nearly every position. An 0-16 season would do it, even with the Browns around. Week 10’s game against the Giants, the easiest opponent left on the 49ers’ schedule, will reveal how probable a winless season might be.
Seattle Seahawks: Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Seattle has rebounded after a 1-2 start to climb back atop the NFC West standings, but unlike in recent years, it’s got some stiff competition at the top. A resurgent Rams team is pushing for the division title, and a rematch between the two teams could dictate which one leaves with the crown. The Seahawks handled them in LA back in Week 5. Will the Rams have grown enough to defeat Russell Wilson in a hostile environment 10 weeks later?
Los Angeles Rams: Week 15 at Seattle
See above. Games against the Vikings, Saints, and Eagles will be important, but none has the potential to be a torch-passing moment like Week 15’s NFC West rematch. If Sean McVay’s young team can escape Washington with a win, that would prove it’s got the mettle for a playoff run.