MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit plans by an emphatic 432 votes to 202 in a historic vote

This concludes our live coverage

Second referendum: update

And to add to my post earlier about a People’s Vote - here’s Labour MPs preparing to pile the pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to go down that road:

One reason Corbyn has been cautious about going for the no confidence vote - ie attempting to trigger a general election - thus far is that losing such a vote would cause exactly this response among remain-leaving members and MPs: they would start to pile on the pressure for a second referendum, given the wording of the Labour conference composite.

And it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening.

The scale of the government defeat

In a handy graphic.

Pound rallies after meaningful vote defeat

This is from my colleague Stuart Greer:

The pound has recovered some of its losses after Tuesday’s crunch Parliamentary vote where MPs rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

Sterling was trading down 0.25% versus the US dollar at 1.283 and increased 0.29% against the euro at 1.124 after MPs decisively rejected the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement.

Ahead of the meaningful vote, the pound had been trading down over 1% versus the US dollar at 1.273 and shed 0.3% against the euro at 1.118.

It had been feared that the pound would tank further if Parliament rejected the deal with a large majority.

MPs rejected Mrs May’s Brexit plans by an emphatic 432 votes to 202, throwing the future of her administration and the nature of the UK’s EU withdrawal into doubt.

But markets did not seem to be panicking, with the pound rising in value following the results, which were announced at around 7.40pm.

XTB online trading said: “Traders are seemingly taking the outcome as paving the way for an extension of the Article 50 deadline, rather than increasing the chances of a no-deal Brexit and this has caused the recovery seen in the pound.

“Attention now turns to what happens next with the levels of uncertainty raised once more and moving up to unprecedented heights.”

Seema Shah, global investment strategist at Principal Global Investors, said: “Sterling has pared its earlier loss - this is not surprising.

“It raises the chances of a ‘no Brexit’ or, at the least, an extension of Article 50.

“Admittedly, the chances of a ‘no-deal Brexit’ may mathematically have also risen, but the market remains ever-hopeful that the Government will not commit an error of such epic proportions.

“Mrs May is set to make a few tweaks to her deal and return to the Commons on Monday. Realistically it will take a few attempts, but the most likely scenario in these impossibly uncertain times would be that her deal eventually gets through.”

She added that there was “still danger ahead”.

If a no confidence motion brought by leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn succeeds then “sterling’s path could be a direct south as the risks of a general election would increase”, she said.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said: “We’ve seen plenty of volatility in the pound today, both ahead of the vote and in the immediate aftermath of it.

“The end result has been that it is pretty much back where it started the day against the dollar.

“This highlights just how uncertain the process remains and how little has been achieved with the vote today.”

Is a second referendum any more likely?

Unclear, sorry. But certainly neither of the main party leaderships want that to happen.

The PM has promised to go away and talk to MPs across the Commons about a way forward, but she won’t have a People’s Vote high up on her list.

In the Commons earlier she gave short shrift to the SNP when asked about just this, saying - again - that Parliament must ‘deliver’ on the existing decision.

Clearly just because it’s not in her diary, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. I’m guessing tonight’s crushingly humiliating defeat probably wasn’t in the game-plan either.

But as it stands, the level of support for a second referendum in the House of Commons is untested - and Jeremy Corbyn is in no rush either.

His top priority is for a general election, with Labour sources reiterating that he would continue to push for that outcome despite a conference composite calling for a second referendum to stay on the table.

Having said that, there may be some remainers who hope that a second referendum simply remains the only thing standing at the end of all of this.

Currently it isn’t clear how Theresa May can come back with a Plan B - as she has to next Monday - that will please enough MPs to get it over the line, particularly given tonight’s defeat.

So it’s possible that once every other option is exhausted, the only one left will be a second vote.

EU: 'Time is almost up'

You heard earlier from Chris Green MP, who is saying - as Boris Johnson was on Sky a few minutes ago - that the way forward lies in the PM going back to Europe and renegotiating.

The message from Brussels is doubtful.

Here’s Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the EU Commission

And here’s the full text of his statement:

I take note with regret of the outcome of the vote in the House of Commons this evening.

On the EU side, the process of ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement continues.

The Withdrawal Agreement is a fair compromise and the best possible deal.

It reduces the damage caused by Brexit for citizens and businesses across Europe. It is the only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The European Commission, and notably our Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier, has invested enormous time and effort to negotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.

We have shown creativity and flexibility throughout. I, together with President Tusk, have demonstrated goodwill again by offering additional clarifications and reassurances in an exchange of letters with Prime Minister May earlier this week.

The risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has increased with this evening’s vote.

While we do not want this to happen, the European Commission will continue its contingency work to help ensure the EU is fully prepared.

I urge the United Kingdom to clarify its intentions as soon as possible.

Time is almost up.

This has been echoed by Austria, which says no deal is not inevitable, but Britain must ‘keep calm and carry on’.

'She should do the decent thing and resign'

Here’s Blackley and Broughton MP Graham Stringer, one of a handful of ardently Brexit-leaning Labour MPs nationally, on tonight’s vote. (He didn’t back the deal either.)

The Prime Minister has lost all credibility.

She can no longer represent our country and whatever the result of the no confidence vote, she should do the devent thing and resign.

Oldham West and Royton MP Jim McMahon said the PM had failed to engage with MPs up until last week, when she finally held cross-party meetings.

As a result, concerns over the deal were ‘ignored and she pushed ahead’.

There is little doubt that the country is divided and parliament is too.

The job of the government was to bring forward an agreement which could bring people together; and on that she failed.

Chris Green MP: The onus is now on the EU

Here’s Bolton West Brexiteer Chris Green, one of the Tory rebels tonight.

It was an extraordinary vote and an extraordinary decision, but it doesn’t give us any clarity over the days ahead.

The PM now has to see what kind of deal she gets from the EU, but we have a vote of no confidence in the government to deal with tomorrow.

So much comes down to the EU and I’ve always believed that the EU is going to seriously negotiate when the clock is ticking, when we’re getting to the last day.

This result now actually, to a certain extent, puts an onus on the EU.

The PM has tried her best to get a deal she feels she can deliver, but the EU has consistently failed to really understand what the referendum and the leave vote was about.

Now they have to be serious because this has a massive impact on their business if we don’t get this right just as it can have an impact on our business.

What does he want to see the PM come back with?

EU rules say they won’t seriously negotiate until we’ve left.

What I’d like to see is a series of continuous agreements where we continue to replicate their standards but we move very quickly to negotiating a Canada-style trade deal that takes all the advantages of Canada and our trade relations with South Korea.

That could and should be a relatively rapid process because the EU has already negotiated a whole series of trade deals around the world and the UK is 100% compatible with the regulations of the EU.

I can be a straightforward process - it’s about how determined the EU now is to get a good relationship with the UK.

Why isn't she resigning?

Good question.

It’s unprecedented for a PM to suffer a defeat like this and not resign - in fact it’s moreorless unprecedented for a PM to suffer a defeat like this at all.

But as we must all know by now, we live in unprecedented times.

Internally within the Conservative Party, MPs arguably moved too soon last month by holding a vote of confidence that she won, albeit not particularly comfortably.

Under party rules, that now cannot happen again until the end of this year.

So that route is out.

Corbyn is also highly unlikely to win tomorrow’s vote of no confidence, meaning a general election realistically doesn’t look any more likely than it did a few hours ago.

It’s possible that Theresa May’s own cabinet will simply turn on her, demanding she goes - that remains to be seen. She could always refuse, although a wave (or more accurately another wave) of cabinet resignations could be hard to survive.

But she’s undoubtedly right on one thing: whoever ends up taking things over would be faced by exactly the same set of problems.

What happens now?

Theresa May has suffered a staggering defeat as a third of her own MPs rejected her Brexit deal.

MPs voted 432 to 202 against the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement, which saw her lose by 230 votes.

The result will come as as no surprise, with predictions of a heavy loss.

The hammering piles pressure on the Prime Minister and the Government.

But what could happen now she has lost the key vote this evening:

'She has to start listening': Greater Manchester MPs on the PM's crushing defeat

Lisa Nandy, Wigan MP, is on Sky News being asked whether she can believe the scale of this defeat.

I can believe it because we have had two and a half years of the PM refusing to reach out across Parliament.

That applies to the country, too, she says, to whom she hasn’t listened.

This the result.

Even just a few minutes before the vote, the PM was still taking that position, she says.

She was still taking that same belligerent tone.

What must now happen is something different, she says - a ‘complete change of approach’.

Jonathan Reynolds, MP for Stalybridge and Hyde - and a shadow minister - is equally scathing.

“A defeat entirely of the PM’s own making,” he says of the 230-vote loss.

Her negotiations, her red lines, her leadership - they all have produced a deal unacceptable to the majority of both remainers and leavers.

She simply has to start listening to people.

Video: Jeremy Corbyn tables a motion of no confidence in the government

Here’s the moment Jeremy Corbyn called for a motion of no confidence in the government

Watch: Theresa May's speech after Brexit defeat

Watch what Theresa May had to say to the House of Commons after the Brexit vote defeat

So, what does a big defeat look like? This.

This is an epic defeat for a government - there’s no way to overstate it.

The last time anything of this scale happened was in the 1920s, when Ramsay Macdonald lost by 166 votes.

It is a testament to the way our political rulebook has been ripped up that the PM is not resigning, although what her own backbenches decide to do after this vote remains to be seen.

Nevertheless, they’ve moved too soon if they wanted to dethrone her within the Tory party, since she won an internal vote of no confidence in her orchestrated just before Christmas.

Under those rules, they can’t move again for a year.

And for Corbyn, the maths needed to trigger a general election - under the proceedings now due tomorrow - still look unlikely.

Could she still quit? Sure. But as we’ve said earlier on tonight, that wouldn’t be very T May.

And the PM is right on one thing: whoever takes over, on whichever side of the house, the problems would fundamentally remain just as intractable.

Corbyn: I have tabled a vote of no confidence

This is a catastrophic defeat for government says Corbyn.

That verdict is absolutely decisive.

I hear the words of the PM but the actions of the government in the past two years speak equally loudly, he says - and she has only reached out jnow.

We have been consistent about our priorities, he says, to jeers.

No deal must be off the table, a permanent customs union secured and people’s rights secured.

Every time the PM has shut the door on dialogue, he says.

(His voice is hoarse here.)

In the last two years the PM has only had one priority, he says: the Tory party.

I therefore inform you I have tabled a motion of no confidence.

Bitterness and rancour

Every day that passes means more uncertainty, bitterness and rancour, she says.

I ask members on all sides of the house to listen to the British people, who want this issue settled, and to work with the government.

Video: Result of the Brexit vote is announced

This is the moment the Brexit vote result is announced in the House of Commons

Theresa May: Here's what happens next

Theresa May is up on her feet immediately.

Citizens deserve clarity, she says. This tells us ‘nothing’ about what Parliament wants.

Then:

• First we confirm whether Parliament has the confidence of the house - if Labour tables a motion, the government will make time to debate it tomorrow.
  
• If the House has confidence in us, I will meet with the DUP and senior MPs from across the House to find out what WOULD secure backing. This would be done in a constructive spirit [jeers]. We must focus on ideas that are genuinely negotiable

Reassurances: She says the government is not trying to run the clock down to March 29. We want to leave in an orderly way with a good deal.

A Plan B will be brought forward by Monday.

BREAKING: Government loses meaningful vote by 230

As expected, the PM loses the vote on her deal.

By a historic margin.

Video: People gather outside Parliament

People have been gathering outside Parliament today ahead of the Brexit vote.

MPs are now voting on the deal

In the meantime, here’s Theresa May speaking in the Commons a few minutes ago

Watch: The speaker announces the Brexit vote

Here is the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, announcing the Brexit vote in the House of Commons

Amendment vote result: Government wins by a landslide

The Tory backbench amendment - which had called for a limit to be introduced on the backstop, which at present would be an indefinite arrangement under T May’s deal - has overwhelmingly defeated.

Just 24 MPs voted in favour, compared to 600 against.

Watch: Theresa May's speech in full

Here’s Theresa May’s speech to the House of Commons in full ahead of the Brexit vote

How big is a big defeat?

Any defeat for a sitting government is a pretty big deal, but we could be looking at something at an unprecedented scale.

Helpfully, the BBC’s PM show informed me earlier that around two thirds of government defeats over the past hundred years have been by less than 25 votes, which gives you some idea what a three-figure loss would represent.

A loss by 150 votes or more - which has looked eminently plausible all day - would be the worst in over a century.

In 1924 Ramsay Macdonald, also leading a minority government, suffered a series of crushing defeats - including one by 140.

Theresa May, however, may potentially be looking at 200+.

Bloomberg report that a loss of 220 or more, which would mean around about 100 Tory rebels, would see Sterling plummet.

Labour and the SNP pull amendments

The two amendments that were up first - see the start of this blog - would have been by Labour and then the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Those are now no longer being voted on, in a bid to create a ‘clean’ defeat, it would appear.

In other words, the opposition want to impose the heaviest, most symbolic loss on the PM they possibly can.

Tulip Siddiq votes in a wheelchair

MPs are now going through the lobbies on the Tory backbench amendments - Labour and the SNP are not voting on theirs, more of which shortly.

That includes the heavily pregnant Labour MP Tulip Siddiq, who has delayed her elective C-Section to ensure she is able to vote tonight.

And now: the amendments

And the amendments are off. I can’t hear what’s going on. People are shouting at each other, as usual, and John Bercow is shouting back.

T May rules out a second referendum again

Challenged by the SNP on the need for a people’s vote - because Brexit will be bad for the economy - she reiterates her previous position:

Parliament gave the British people a choice. Parliament - the govt at the time, all parties campaigning in that referendum - were absolutely clear whatever the decision of that referendum it would be respected by govt and by Parliament.

I believe we have a duty to deliver on that referendum. And to do so in a way that does protect people’s jobs and does protect our security and our union.

Voting against her deal is ‘voting for uncertainty, division and the risk of no deal or no Brexit at all’.

It doesn’t have to be that way. We can choose certainty over uncertainty, unity over division, we can choose to deliver our choice to the British people not break that promise and endanger trust in politics for a generation.

PM: Corbyn is 'cynically' exploiting Brexit crisis

The PM is now going for Corbyn.

Everything he does is designed to avoid taking and difficult decisions. In the GE he said ‘fredom of movement will end’ - on Sunday [on the Andrew Marr show] he said ‘I’m not against the free movement of people’.

She continues:

He says he’s opposed to no deal but he says he’s opposed to the withdrawal agreement and backstop without which there is no deal. So the question is, what is his position?

He has pursued a ‘cynical course not the one in the national interest’ she says, ‘because he doesn’t care whether we leave or not... so long as he can maximise uncertainty’ to trigger a general election.