The reigning World Series champions do not carry the same mystique they did last season. The jolly juggernaut is still imposing, still loaded with talent, and therefore still a useful measuring stick. The Chicago Cubs come to town for four games against the Nationals this week before meeting again in Chicago later in the season.
CUBS CORRECTING
Among the reasons the Cubs had to climb their way back to .500 this month instead of building a cushion in their division is their starting pitching, which has simply not been as good this season. But recently, Cubs starters are correcting. Over the past two weeks, they have the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors (3.18), though their fielding independent pitching (FIP) is almost a run and a half higher. In other words, the recent surge could be more a product of luck than anything. They will be facing one of the toughest tests the National League has to offer in this Nationals lineup.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense ranks in the middle of the major league pack in terms of OPS, home runs, and other quick indicators of offensive firepower. But they are second in the majors in walk rate only to the Dodgers, another playoff-caliber team. In other words, they will test the Nationals’ pitching staff.
NAMES TO KNOW
By now, everyone knows the offensive keys to this Cubs team. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant still anchor the lineup, as they did through that magical October. Bryant is hitting to a .918 OPS with 16 homers, Rizzo a .904 OPS with 17.
But the rest of the roster has been in flux. October hero Kyle Schwarber has struggled so mightily that Chicago sent him down last week. Jason Heyward is on the disabled list, though he could return by the end of the Nationals series. Addison Russell left Sunday’s game with shoulder soreness, and this is not the first time the shortstop has dealt with the problem.
Among the newcomers is Ian Happ, a 22-year-old rookie who hit third in the Cubs’ lineup Sunday. More familiar Jon Jay is also carrying some weight, hitting well over .300 in part-time duty. In other words, this is not the same Cubs lineup that dominated the majors last season.
The rotation is weaker, too. Last year’s surprising stalwart Kyle Hendricks is out with an injury. Righty Eddie Butler, a 26-year-old from Chesapeake, Va., is one of those pitching behind the familiar trio of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and John Lackey. Mike Montgomery, who pitched out of the bullpen last year, is also in the rotation. The Nationals will face Butler and those big three this week.
NEW-LOOK NATS
These teams played two endlessly entertaining series last season, including the one in which some think Joe Maddon “broke” Bryce Harper by walking him six times in one game. Those were the days when Ryan Zimmerman was not hitting like he is now. The Cubs will be walking a shakier tightrope walking Harper now.
Former Cubs manager Dusty Baker’s left-right-left-right middle of the order will likely find the spotlight once or twice in the later innings of this series, forcing Maddon to decide between letting a lefty face a righty or vice versa against four formidable hitters in Harper, Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon — all of whom have a higher batting average than all but one hitter in the Cubs’ lineup.
The Cubs also did not see this version of Michael A. Taylor last season, a version that is starting to resemble the spring training robot the Nationals have seen for two springs now. Taylor has hit three home runs in his past two games, and has 11 homers since taking over for Adam Eaton in late April. Against right-handed pitchers, his emergence gives the Nationals an alternating lineup from the third spot through the eighth, with power potential in every spot.
The Cubs have not seen this version of the Nationals’ bullpen, either. Left-hander Sammy Solis should be on track to return from the disabled list this week, which will help. But even after a strong weekend, the Nationals have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball.
PITCHING PROBABLES
Monday: LHP Gio Gonzalez vs. RHP Eddie Butler
Tuesday: RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Jake Arrieta
Wednesday: RHP Stephen Strasburg vs. RHP John Lackey
Thursday: RHP Joe Ross vs. LHP Jon Lester
