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Never listen to anyone who tells you the college football season is proceeding in too orderly a fashion. We go through this ever year: people look up at the rankings in mid-October and declare there are too many unbeaten teams, too many teams with obvious paths to the Playoff, or what have you. Always have faith in college football chaos.
Below, updated picks for every bowl and Playoff game, after Week 8 unloaded its blessings upon us.
This week's biggest developments: Ohio State and Texas A&M are no longer unbeaten (only nine undefeated FBS teams are left, which is fewer than last year at this point), and the American seems to be down to just Navy in the New Year's Six mid-major race after Houston got destroyed by lil ole SMU.
We're running out of chances for Alabama to lose, and the Tide are almost to the point at which a loss wouldn't matter anyway, even without accounting for the annual Zombie Bama hulk-up that comes after an L.
Anyway, let's take a look at all of bowl season and how things might shape up in December.
| College Football Playoff | |||
| Fiesta Dec. 31, Glendale, AZ |
Clemson | Michigan | Playoff rankings top 4 |
| Peach Dec. 31, Atlanta |
Alabama | Washington | Playoff rankings top 4 |
| National Championship Jan. 9, Tampa |
Alabama | Michigan | Fiesta winner vs. Peach winner |
I know I just said that thing about chaos, but these teams are still the best choices to win Power 5 conferences. Once mayhem strikes, we'll adapt.
Something tells me this will be the first week of the year in which my pick of either Michigan or Ohio State to represent the Big Ten will be uncontroversial. Just have a sense.
OSU can still make it in. Winning out and beating Michigan would likely win the East, since Penn State's overall record would hurt it in a three-way tiebreaker scenario. But UM's the clear favorite now.
Bama and Washington dominated opponents of wildly varying quality (A&M and Oregon State, respectively), and Clemson was off, thanking the heavens it's already beaten Lamar Jackson.
| New Year's Six bowls | |||
| Cotton Jan. 2, Arlington, TX |
Boise State | Wisconsin | At-large |
| Rose Jan. 2, Pasadena, CA |
Ohio State | Utah | Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1 |
| Sugar Jan. 2, New Orleans |
Oklahoma | Texas A&M | Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1 |
| Orange Dec. 30, Miami |
Louisville | Tennessee | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
One change in this group this week: Wisconsin in for Baylor. I think there's little separation at the top of the Big 12, where some records are about to get muddied. The Badgers have a good shot at 10-2 or 10-3, and the committee's shown it doesn't punish division champions much for losing conference title games. Nebraska's obviously right there as well.
Considered Wisconsin over Tennessee as well, but UT's strength of schedule should rank better, based on the committee's stated preference for bowl-eligible opponents.
| Conference selection order, not based on standings | |||
| Outback Jan. 2, Tampa |
Penn State | Florida | Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Citrus Dec. 31, Orlando |
Nebraska | LSU | Big Ten 2-4/ACC vs. SEC 2 |
| TaxSlayer Dec. 31, Jacksonville |
Miami | Arkansas | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Music City Dec. 30, Nashville |
Indiana | Ole Miss | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Liberty Dec. 30, Memphis |
Oklahoma State | Georgia | Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Sun Dec. 30, El Paso, TX |
Pitt | Arizona State | ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5 |
| Arizona Dec. 30, Tucson |
Utah State | Troy | MWC vs. Sun Belt |
| Alamo Dec. 29, San Antonio |
TCU | Washington State | Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2 |
| Belk Dec. 29, Charlotte |
Virginia Tech | Auburn | ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Birmingham Dec. 29 |
USF | Army* | American vs. SEC 9 |
| Foster Farms Dec. 28, Santa Clara, CA |
Iowa | USC | Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4 |
| Pinstripe Dec. 28, New York City |
North Carolina | Maryland | ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7 |
| Russell Athletic Dec. 28, Orlando |
Florida State | West Virginia | ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3 |
| Texas Dec. 28, Houston |
Baylor | Missouri** | Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Cactus Dec. 27, Tempe, AZ |
Texas | Stanford | Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7 |
| Heart of Dallas Dec. 27 |
Idaho* | WKU | Big Ten vs. C-USA |
| Holiday Dec. 27, San Diego |
Minnesota | Colorado | Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3 |
| Military Dec. 27, Annapolis, MD |
Georgia Tech | Houston | ACC vs. American |
| Independence Dec. 26, Shreveport, LA |
UTEP** | Akron* | ACC vs. SEC |
| St. Petersburg Dec. 26 |
Wake Forest | Cincinnati | ACC vs. American |
| Quick Lane Dec. 26, Detroit, MI |
Syracuse** | Northwestern | ACC vs. Big Ten |
| Hawaii Dec. 24, Honolulu |
Temple* | Hawaii | C-USA vs. MWC |
| Dollar General Dec. 23, Mobile, AL |
WMU | South Alabama | MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2 |
| Armed Forces Dec. 23, Fort Worth, TX |
Kansas State | Navy | Big 12 vs. Navy |
| Bahamas Dec. 23, Nassau |
Tulsa | Ohio | American vs. MAC |
| Potato Dec. 22, Boise, ID |
Toledo | Air Force | MAC 2 vs. MWC |
| Poinsettia Dec. 21, San Diego |
BYU | Wyoming | BYU vs. MWC |
| Boca Raton Dec. 20 |
Memphis | Southern Miss | American vs. C-USA |
| Miami Beach Dec. 19 |
SMU | EMU | American vs. MAC |
| Las Vegas Dec. 17 |
San Diego State | UCLA | MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6 |
| Camelia Dec. 17, Montgomery, AL |
CMU | Appalachian State | MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3 |
| Cure Dec. 17, Orlando |
UCF | Georgia Southern | American vs. Sun Belt |
| New Mexico Dec. 17, Albuquerque |
MTSU | New Mexico | C-USA vs. MWC |
| New Orleans Dec. 17 |
UL Lafayette | LA Tech | Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA |
* = taking another conference's unfilled bid
** = here at 5-7, thanks to APR scores
Todd Graham Bowl!
Any thoughts on all that?