Trump presidency is hard to predict

Throughout his unprecedented campaign, between his bold promises and populist rhetoric, Donald J. Trump gave few glimpses of what a Trump presidency realistically would look like.

Now that presidency will become a reality, local experts say Mr. Trump’s potential moves are still difficult to predict, but that the next president will likely have to change in many ways, from his dealings with other Washington leaders to how he conducts himself in office, to accomplish any of his agenda.

Just how successful he could be, however, is where they disagree.

“He’s going to be a very powerful president,” said Holy Cross political science professor Donald Brand, who is concerned that President Barack Obama’s increased use of presidential decrees to execute his proposals around congressional gridlock “could come back to bite us” in the hands of Mr. Trump. 

Some observers believe Mr. Trump will be especially emboldened by the Republican sweep he helped lead across the country, which may make the Republican-controlled House and Senate more willing to work with him and his agenda, despite many lawmakers’ distaste for him during his campaign.

“My suspicion is there will be a fair amount of deference” from Congress, said Greg Weiner, a political science professor at Assumption College. Especially after Mr. Trump’s devoted base helped many of them get into office on Election Day, “I think there’s going to be some reluctance to rile that base up” by immediately opposing him, he said.

“Even though many of them did not support him, some will definitely coalesce behind him,” said Clark University political science professor Srinivasan Sitaraman. “They’ll be looking to rebuild bridges, which is not a bad thing – it may temper some of his unpredictability.” (This paragraph has been corrected. Mr. Sitaraman is a Clark professor.)

Given the Republican control of Washington, some experts believe Mr. Trump may move right away to carry out some of his campaign goals, including appointing a new Supreme Court justice, introducing new tax policy, and cracking down on illegal immigration. For some of those he will need lawmakers’ help, but there are other actions he will have autonomy to do on his own, observers said, like renegotiate trade deals, something he promised in his campaign to do.

Even before those steps, Mr. Trump will have to assemble his Cabinet, which some professors said could give an indication of how he might operate as president. Some suspected he will follow through on speculation he will surround himself with Washington outsiders who had become central figures in his campaign, including former Republican presidential primary adversaries Ben Carson and Chris Christie.

“Part of his problem, and part of his benefit, is he doesn’t know” anybody inside the Beltway, said Anna Maria College justice and social sciences professor Michael Donnelly. “To some extent, he has a free hand here.”

But Mr. Donnelly suspected Mr. Trump, if he’s wise, will also find an insider, “preferably a lawyer,” who will show the political novice the ropes. “The Italians have a word for it: consligiere,” he said.

While playing the wild-card role during his campaign ultimately proved to be a winning strategy, some experts believe Mr. Trump will quickly find his brazen, uncompromising approach won’t work in the White House. A few professors thought Mr. Trump, in fact, will find he has less power than he might have imagined as leader of the country.

“He has to rein it in in order to get anything done,” said Worcester State University political science professor Nathan Angelo, who noted a significant portion of the new president’s agenda will require legislative action. “He needs the establishment.”

That same Republican establishment, prominent members of which disavowed Mr. Trump this election season, may not be willing to work closely with the president-elect, some observers predict, given that some of his stances differ from the party orthodoxy.

“It won’t be as easy as people think with a Republican Senate and House,” Mr. Connelly said. “I think there’s going to be a divide … they’ll want to push him and move him.”

Even the suddenly minority Democratic Party, after suffering a crushing defeat on Tuesday, will still wield some clout in the Senate, where they can still filibuster to block Republican measures. Some experts said they also expect the Democrats, as a silver lining, may be re-energized by this election, which they said has forced party leaders to rethink and rebuild their coalition, and renew outreach to potentially disenfranchised groups in their base.

“I somehow feel the Clinton campaign took them for granted,” Mr. Sitaraman said. “(The Democrats) have to rebuild everything from the ground up.”

The party’s hope is that Mr. Trump, despite his defiant anti-establishment posturing on the campaign trail, will take a more moderate turn once he faces the immense responsibilities of the highest office in the nation.

“We’re still trying to grapple with who Trump is,” said U.S. Rep. James P. McGovern, D-Worcester.  “I hope he moves to moderation. I hope he can better control his temperament. I hope he can listen to people, even those who disagree with him.

“Today we just have to move on, with an open mind, and hope for the best.”