Michigan vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction
Free Press sports writer Mark Snyder breaks down and predicts 'The Game' Saturday in Ann Arbor
Our full breakdown and prediction of The Game in Ann Arbor.
Fast facts
No. 8 Ohio State at No. 12 Michigan
Records: Michigan 9-2, 6-1 Big Ten; Ohio State 10-1, 6-1
Kickoff: Noon, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
TV/radio: ABC; WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050).
Line: Pick ’em.
Injury report
U-M: RB Ty Isaac (off-field), probable; WR Jehu Chesson (arm), WR Drake Harris (ankle), RB Derrick Green (undisclosed), WR Brian Cole (undisclosed), DT Bryan Mone (ankle), questionable; DT Ryan Glasgow (pectoral), DE Mario Ojemudia (Achilles), out.
Ohio State: WR Johnnie Dixon (knee), S Erick Smith (knee), DB Cam Burrows (foot), LB Nick Conner (knee), WR Corey Smith (leg), WR Noah Brown (leg), out.
Five things to watch
Checking on Chesson: For most of the season, receiver Jehu Chesson has been U-M’s most explosive offensive player. He has had big gains on end-arounds, the Wolverines have hit him on crossing patterns down the field, and he ran back a kickoff return for a 96-yard touchdown. If he can’t play against Ohio State because of a right arm injury, it would be a major blow to the offense.
Holding the line: Michigan State showed last week how to beat the Buckeyes. Shutting down the run is critical, and the Spartans only allowed 86 rushing yards — a stunningly low number for an OSU team that leads the Big Ten at 230.4 per game. Michigan struggled against the No. 2 rushing team in the conference, Indiana, but this is the chance to show that this is an elite defense.
Jabrill's jaunts: There has been something new in the Jabrill Peppers package every game this season. He started at safety and then spread through the defense. His return game is now focused only on punts, but his offensive role continues to expand. There’s little doubt that the Wolverines will show something new with him Saturday. They can push his play count, and he’s drooling to make a memory.
Rudock's rebuttal: U-M quarterback Jake Rudock has carried the Michigan offense with more than 250 passing yards each of the last three weeks. His preference is to spread the ball around to different receivers, which might be necessary Saturday. While with Iowa in 2013, he threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns against the Buckeyes, so he has some experience there. Given U-M’s pedestrian running game, he might have to be great to win.
Title hopes? The Wolverines’ chances in the Big Ten East division took a hit when OSU lost last week and put MSU in the driver’s seat. But the Spartans still have to get past Penn State in East Lansing. If MSU falls, the winner of the U-M/OSU game is headed to Indianapolis. But even tying for the division title would be a milestone for U-M.
Know the foe: Ohio State
Free Press sports writer Mark Snyder looks at three story lines surrounding Ohio State:
Boren bye-bye: This likely is the final Ohio State vs. Michigan game for the Boren family, at least for a while. Jacoby Boren, Ohio State’s starting center, is a senior, which concludes one of the most interesting legacies in the rivalry. Mike Boren, the family patriarch, grew up in Columbus but played linebacker at Michigan in the early 1980s. His son Justin started his college career at U-M but transferred to Ohio State during the Rich Rodriguez era. Brothers Zach and Jacoby followed him to the Buckeyes.
Homecoming: Ohio State has three players from the state of Michigan, and all three went to Detroit Cass Tech. Only cornerback Damon Webb has played this year, and he missed half the season on suspension. He’s back now, having played five games and making nine tackles. Defensive lineman Josh Alabi and tailback Mike Weber are on the roster. Plymouth offensive lineman Michael Jordan is committed to OSU for next season.
QB Central: Just as Michigan probably has a few tricks planned for the Buckeyes, Ohio State could have its own. J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones have battled at quarterback all season, and coach Urban Meyer probably wouldn’t hesitate to pull one if he’s struggling. And with former star quarterback Braxton Miller now playing receiver, there are a myriad of possibilities.
U-M's Harbaugh knows how to win as the underdog
Mark Snyder’s scouting report
When U-M has the ball: Like every game, the Wolverines will try to establish the run. The question is with which back. De’Veon Smith is the starter, but his grinding style might not work against a physical defensive line. That’s where Jabrill Peppers might have the most impact — if he can give the Wolverines at least 10 carries, his speed and ability to turn the corner could ease the loaded box U-M has faced recently. Ohio State’s defense is ranked No. 5 in passing yards allowed and No. 30 in rush defense. Most of the focus will be on keeping defensive end Joey Bosa away from U-M quarterback Jake Rudock. Bosa is third among active players with 25 career sacks. Finding a spot for the tight ends to do damage, such as Jake Butt over the middle, will be critical to sustaining drives and keeping the OSU offense on the sideline.
When Ohio State has the ball: The Buckeyes’ struggle to score against Michigan State last week gave U-M a blueprint to attack J.T. Barrett. There’s no doubt that tailback Ezekiel Elliott will get a ton of carries, given his usage complaints after the MSU game and his success against U-M a year ago. But the challenge will be containing Barrett’s arm and making OSU one-dimensional. MSU did that, as Barrett completed only nine passes. The Wolverines were reminded last week of the power of their defensive line, as it wore down Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg. The more mobile Barrett puts pressure on containing the edge and tackling. There probably won’t be many sacks, but bottling him up is essential.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Michigan 21. Two of the nation’s top eight defenses should keep the point total down and turn this into a field-position game in which one explosive play (are you listening, Jabrill Peppers and Braxton Miller?) could change everything. Recently, this rivalry has brought out the best in the Wolverines, who have played well the past four years, despite having only one win to show for it. The Buckeyes losing last week was the worst thing for U-M because now they’ll be zeroed in for this game, instead of thinking about the big picture. It may be a classic, but not one the Wolverines want to remember. This would be their 11th loss in the past 12 matchups.
Check out more staff predictions here.
Join us at noon Saturday for a live blog of the Michigan-Ohio State game!
Contact Mark Snyder: msnyder@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @mark__snyder.
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