As rainy season ends, will El Nino bring a rainier and colder winter to Southwest Florida?

The wet season is shaping up pretty average after starting off with a bang in May. 

If you use June 1 as a starting point, Southwest Florida is officially about 6 inches below average rainfall, according to South Florida Water Management District records.

But the region is probably a few inches above average when you add in rains from the last two weeks of May. 

"What (the records) don't show is the record rainfall we had in May, and that was almost a foot in most places," said district spokesman Randy Smith. "It was the wettest May since records started." 

June 1 is typically the beginning of the rainy season, but the National Weather Service recently started using May 15 as its official beginning to the wet summer months. 

"If you look at what is considered the rainy seasons, that is missing a foot-plus of rain that came in May," Smith said. 

Rain is in the forecast for the next week or so, but it won't be long until the daily storms stop. 

'It's going to be a lot more of the same," said Tyler Fleming, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin. "It's going to be scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and most days highs will be around 90." 

The rain could stop by the beginning of October. After that it's on to the wonderful winters Florida is known for. 

"Usually late September, sometimes into October, we start to see a switch with a little bit drier conditions," Fleming said. "In mid-to-late October we'll see our first cold front, where temperatures will be a little bit cooler."

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling for above-average chances of above-average rain for Southwest Florida between October and December. 

There is also a chance that El Nino will set in and that Southwest Florida will see another cool, wet winter. 

Winter months here are typically mostly dry and sunny - on average 75 degrees for a high in January with three days of rain - but El Nino conditions bring rain in the dry season.

"The climate prediction center has an El Nino watch that says there is a 50 to 55 percent chance of it forming between September and November and a 65 to 70 percent chance of it forming in the winter," Fleming said. "That usually means wetter than normal conditions and cooler and more severe winter thunderstorms. And stronger tornadoes."

El Nino conditions also tend to suppress the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. 

El Nino rains in 2016, though, caused mass water quality issues and ruined the east and west coastlines for months. 

Southwest Florida is doing well from an ecological needs standpoint, Smith said. 

"If you look at the groundwater levels and the surface water levels there is certainly no deficit at all," Smith said. "We're certainly in good shape right now." 

Connect with this reporter: Chad Gillis on Twitter. 

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