Before Thursday’s NBA draft, we ranked the top 50 players available.
1. Deandre Ayton: Though the 7-footer is the draft’s safest selection, that by no means diminishes his skill set or tantalizing potential. There were few players as dominant as Ayton in college basketball this past season; The big dropped 1.16 points per play, which ranked second nationally among all players to use at least 600 plays, and is nearly automatic around the rim, maneuvering off picks and screens to finish high above the bucket (and shot-blockers). Ayton is a tweak on the traditional big man, capable of scoring in the post or when rim running, and what’s truly interesting is that he is still very much evolving. He spent much of his freshman season at Arizona learning how to defend in space, and that experience helped him grow more and more comfortable guarding along the perimeter. And while his reliance on a midrange jump shot during pick-and-roll situations is less than optimal (per Synergy Sports, he scores .78 points per jumper), those reps allowed him to develop a three-point shot that offers a glimpse of pick-and-pop potential.
2. Luka Doncic: Much of the concern surrounding Doncic, the 18-year-old Slovenian guard, is largely unwarranted. Sure, he may not have the explosive athleticism some covet in lottery selections. But the 6-6 Doncic dropped 21 points per 36 minutes while playing for Real Madrid this past season, an unreal display of efficiency against heralded international competition — according to Jacob Goldstein of Nylon Calculus, Doncic would have posted a box plus-minus of nearly plus-4 in 2018, which would rank just outside the NBA’s top 20. Combined with his passing legerdemain and an advanced skill set both in transition and spacing the half court, it’s foolhardy to fret about Doncic’s supposed ceiling.
3. Marvin Bagley: The freshman showcased a game full of offensive flourishes during his lone season at Duke, attempting a shot on more than a quarter of the Blue Devils’ possessions while posting an offensive rating of 1.24 PPP and connecting on more than 64 percent of his two-point field goals. Much of Bagley’s offense consists of attempts of around 15 feet from the bucket, and the 6-11 big man had a myriad offensive moves and counters at his disposal, utilizing his quickness, agility and ability to contour his body to score almost at will.
4. Trae Young: While Young isn’t quite Stephen Curry 2.0, the 6-2 guard certainly has the requisite range to get his shot off, no matter how tightly he is defended. According to Synergy Sports, his three-point attempt efficiency rating — 1.11 PPP — ranked fifth among Division I players. But it’s not just Young’s individual offense that sets him apart — it’s that, plus his tremendous vision. Young notched an assist on nearly 50 percent of the Sooners’ baskets in 2018, an astounding number considering he still posted an offensive efficiency rating of 1.12 PPP while facilitating the offense. Combined with his effectiveness getting to the line — drawing 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes and converting 86 percent of those freebies — Young is tailor-made for the NBA’s current style of play.
5. Jaren Jackson: What makes the 6-11 freshman such an intriguing prospect isn’t just his defensive intangibles, specifically the block rate of 14.3 percent (which ranked fourth in Ken Pomeroy’s database) or his defensive rebounding rate (20 percent). It’s that Jackson, who is still just 18, represents unlimited potential. He’s shown deft handles in spurts, and connected on 43 percent of his threes in Big Ten play. At the moment, Jackson is a rim-running big who can occasionally pop out to attempt a three — which is fine — but with more reps, Jackson might transform into a stretch-five and true mismatch nightmare.
6. Mo Bamba: Similar to Jackson, Bamba, the 6-11 Texas frosh, is a rim-running and shot blocking savant (a block rate of 13.2 percent) capable of defending at least three positions. Following a regimen of pre-draft workouts with training guru Drew Hanlen (Jayson Tatum, Bradley Beal, and RJ Barrett, among others), Bamba has refined elements of his game that were only rumored to exist during his one season in Austin — specifically, a perimeter touch. Like Jackson, Bamba has a skill set that could transform the stretch-5 position.
7. Michael Porter Jr.: There isn’t much to be gleaned from the 53 minutes Porter played for Missouri this past season, so to understand his promise, it’s necessary to dissect what the 6-10 forward accomplished as a high schooler. He possesses guard-like handles, an ease to his perimeter attempts and an uncanny ability to drive the lane and convert while drawing contact. That skill set still remains, which is why a healthy Porter was once considered the consensus top pick in the 2018 draft.
8. Mikal Bridges: Most regard Bridges as a prototypical 3-and-D prospect, and he certainly is tailor-made for the role. Bridges is a 6-7 wing who converted 40 percent of his threes during his three seasons at Villanova while also utilizing an absurd 7-foot wingspan to snuff out opponents’ shot attempts. But Bridges demonstrated this past season that he provides more; 113 of his jump shots (roughly two-thirds) were guarded in 2018 and the junior converted 1.40 PPP, which led Division I and suggests he’s ready to transform into more of a featured role. Coupled with his attempts to diversify his game — Villanova scored 1.05 points per pick-and-roll possession that involved Bridges — and the ex-Wildcat is primed for a breakthrough at the next level.
9. Miles Bridges: The 6-7 sophomore gambled on his draft status when he returned to Michigan State for his sophomore season, but Bridges managed to showcase a multifaceted game built upon perimeter shooting (36 percent from deep) and working within the structure of the Spartan offense. Without Tom Izzo on the sideline, though, Bridges should have a bit more freedom to expand on his offensive repertoire and more fully develop a burgeoning isolation game (.94 points per iso through his first two seasons).
10. Wendell Carter: Duke had enough offensive talent in 2018 that Mike Krzyzewski didn’t have to rely heavily on this freshman big to score, which allowed Carter to showcase his inherent skill set, one that hinges on anchoring a defensive frontcourt. Carter hauled in nearly a quarter of Duke’s opponent’s misses while still managing to block roughly eight percent of opponents’ shot attempts, which is impressive considering the Blue Devils spent much of 2018 in a zone defense. Carter is arguably the most polished big in this draft.
11. Collin Sexton: There are few players in the 2018 draft class as athletically explosive as Sexton. While his play always seems ready to careen into disarray, Sexton showcased a sui generis ability to somehow finish a play, either by himself at the rim or finding an open teammate. His percentages weren’t pretty, so instead focus on the 6-3 guard’s free throw rate per 40 minutes — 7.6, the most ever by a freshman guard (since KenPom began collecting data) as a sign that Sexton’s relentlessness is truly an outstanding trait.
12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Per KenPom, Kentucky waited about 17 seconds before attempting a shot in 2018, which is one of the slowest average possession lengths for a John Calipari-coached squad. Much of that deliberateness was due to Gilgeous-Alexander. How the guard probes opposing defenses is his inherent talent, using his length and height (6-6) to find a mismatch the moment a teammate springs free of his defender. And when opponents try to press Gilgeous-Alexander’s handle, the guard has enough bounce to gain an edge and then convert at the rim. No other Wildcat guard took more half-court shots around the bucket than SGA, who converted 60 percent of those attempts.
13. Kevin Knox: While Knox’s shooting percentages weren’t robust during his one season at Kentucky — 51 percent on his two-point field goals and 34 percent on threes — his value lies beyond how often he made a shot. Specifically, the 6-9 Knox converted nearly two three-point field goals per 40 minutes, and when he did get to the stripe, he made 77 percent of his free throws. Both are indicators of future offensive efficiency, and help explain why Knox shouldn’t slip past the lottery.
14. Zhaire Smith: The uber-athletic Smith had one role at Texas Tech in 2018: Do-it-all. Need an offensive board? Smith grabbed nearly 10 percent of the team’s misses. Seeking a defensive spark? The freshman led the team with a 4.8 percent block rate. Looking for a timely bucket? He did that too, attempting 237 two-point field goals and making 57 percent. While Smith is still very raw and lacks a consistent perimeter touch, his potential is limitless, and he is arguably this draft’s sleeper selection.
15. Robert Williams: There are few players as dogged on the offensive glass as Williams, a 6-10 sophomore who grabbed nearly 30 percent of Texas A&M’s misses. Offensively, that is Williams’ best attribute, but coupled with an instinctual feel for rim running and the prospect of transforming into a shot blocking savant (block rate of 10.1 percent), Williams could potentially sneak into the lottery.
16. Troy Brown: The 6-7 forward’s most intriguing trait is his versatility. He can do a bit of everything, which was helpful on an Oregon squad lacking a consistent scoring threat or playmaker. At his best, Brown can run an offense while more than ably look for his own shot, as evidenced by the 57 percent of two-point field goals he converted during Pac-12 play. At some point, though, he will need to develop from the perimeter — he converted just 29 percent of his 110 three-point attempt, which is among the lowest rate of any non-big in the 2018 draft.
17. Lonnie Walker: Walker suffered an injury the summer before his freshman season, which hamstrung any sort of consistency the 6-5 guard hoped to attain in his lone season as a Hurricane. Before arriving at Miami, though, Walker’s profile was that of an explosive playmaker who is a threat to score in any scenario.
18. Mitchell Robinson: The draft’s true enigma. Robinson was set to enroll at Western Kentucky until he passed on the Conference USA school before the 2018 season. Though there were reports and rumors that he might still become a Hilltopper, Robinson decided to fully commit himself to train for the draft. As a high schooler, he was one of the top frontcourt recruits in the 2018 class, a noted shot-blocker with a deft touch around the rim. How he projects at the next level will largely depend on the leap he took during his year of nonstop training.
19. Kevin Huerter: The 6-7 Huerter is one of the draft’s most underrated players, taking only 22 percent of Maryland’s shots while on the floor but connecting on 41 percent of his threes and posting an offensive efficiency rate (1.16 PPP) that led the Terps. The wing is very efficient at shaking free from his defender and scoring in the half court; per Synergy Sports, Huerter was unguarded on nearly 50 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts (and the majority of those were from beyond the arc).
20. Elie Okobo: The native of France has the physical tools that scouts and GMs crave. He stands 6-2 with a 6-8 wingspan; he averaged nearly six assists the past 20 games of his season with Pau-Orthez, which plays in the top-tier LNB Pro A league; he’s a dogged defender whose quickness and length frustrate opposing ballhandlers. Okobo’s overall skill set is tantalizing.
21. Chandler Hutchison: The 6-7 guard assisted on a quarter of Boise State’s makes in 2018, but Hutchison is far from just a facilitator. He’s capable of driving the lane and scoring at the rim (per Hoop-math.com, Hutchison made a whopping 72 percent of his attempts) while also launching from deep and connecting on 35 percent of his threes the past two seasons. Hutchison ably uses his lanky athleticism to bully defenders, and as the Broncos’ sole playmaker, he is more than proficient at creating for himself while also finding scoring opportunities for his teammates.
22. Donte DiVincenzo: The guard’s 31 points in the 2018 national championship game wasn’t a fluke. The 6-5 DiVincenzo is a true draft sleeper, a guard largely underrated during his three seasons at Villanova because of the team’s backcourt depth. Not only is DiVincenzo an outstanding athlete, he has paired an evolving perimeter game (40 percent from deep in 2018) with aggressive play in the half court — Jalen Brunson was the only other Wildcat to attempt more unassisted shots at the rim than DiVincenzo (28 percent, and the junior made 63 percent of those shots).
23. Melvin Frazier: The 6-5 guard out of Tulane oozes 3-and-D potential, making 38.5 percent from beyond the arc during his junior year and using his lanky frame (a wingspan of nearly 7-2) to harass and disrupt opponents.
24. Keita Bates-Diop: A leg injury sidelined the forward for much of his junior season, but what was remarkable about his 2018 output were the subtle tweaks the 6-7 Bates-Diop made to his game. Specifically, he operated more out of the post, which enabled him to help direct the Ohio State offense while also take advantage of smaller defenders (.88 points per post up). He also continued to improve his court sense, scoring 1.4 points per cut. Those shifts transformed Bates-Diop into a well-rounded offensive threat, a player capable of attacking both within and outside the arc.
25. Jalen Brunson: There is little that Brunson struggles with on the court. The guard is equally as capable of driving past defenders and getting to the bucket as he is abruptly stopping and rising for a three-pointer, or backing down defenders in the post and converting with a timely up-and-under or fadeaway. A consummate point guard, Brunson may not have the athleticism of other guards in this draft, but that should little matter to NBA GMs, who’ll covet his experience and playmaking abilities.
26. Jerome Robinson: This past season marked the 6-5 junior’s breakthrough as not only one of the top offensive players in the ACC but also in Division I. The Boston College product posted an offensive efficiency rate of 1.20 PPP while making 61 percent of his twos and a whopping 41 percent of his threes.
27. Aaron Holiday: For whatever reason, UCLA’s Holiday didn’t get the same amount of pub as other guards on this list, which is a shame because the junior was nearly unstoppable in 2018. Not only did he average more than 20 points, 5 assists, and connect on 40-plus percent of his threes for the third straight season, but he showcased a game replete with versatility. And Holiday isn’t just an offensive threat — he was one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders, combining aggressiveness and an acute sense of timing to continually harass opponents.
28. Grayson Allen: The draft prospect everyone loves to debate. When Allen gets hot, every shot seems to connect and every defensive stand yields a turnover. When he’s off, though, the guard appears listless. But in his four years as a Blue Devil, Allen demonstrated a multifaceted skill set and an ability to play both on and off the ball. He can ably adapt to whatever his team needs.
29. Khyri Thomas: Though he ran point at Creighton, Thomas has the potential to carve a long NBA career as a 3-and-D player. He is quick enough to stay in front of more athletic opponents (and long enough to bother those same players should they turn the corner), posting a steal rate of 3 percent in 2018. Her also connected on at least 40 percent of his threes during each of his three seasons as a Bluejay.
30. Jacob Evans: The 6-6 guard was not only Cincinnati’s most dependable offensive threat in 2018 — most effective scoring beyond the arc (37 percent) — he was also the squad’s defensive cooler, summoned whenever coach Mick Cronin needed his Bearcats to get a stop. According to KenPom, Evans committed just 2.6 fouls per 40 minutes while notching block and steal rates of 2.5-plus percent.
31. Josh Okogie: The 6-4 guard was the fulcrum of Georgia Tech’s offense, and while his rates aren’t overly impressive — an offensive efficiency mark of 1.07 PPP while attempting more than a quarter of the team’s shots — he has shown flashes of scoring brilliance, pairing an innate court sense with his 7-foot wingspan.
32. Dzanan Musa: The 6-8 Bosnian operates best in catch-and-shoot, where he can either convert from the perimeter or create for himself and teammates following an aggressive closeout.
33. Jevon Carter: The biggest knock on Carter, a 6-2 guard, is his offense; he often has trouble integrating his skills into the flow of the game. Those concerns, though, are mitigated by his defensive intensity. Carter might just be the best on-ball defender in the entire draft. He posted a steal rate of four-plus percent in three of his four seasons at West Virginia, and has the quickness, agility, and experience to make even the most able ballhandler commit a miscue.
34. Bruce Brown: Injuries slowed Brown’s sophomore season at Miami, but the guard, who can defend at least three positions, is an athletic playmaker who has shown flashes of a perimeter touch.
35. De’Anthony Melton: The guard missed his entire sophomore season at USC due to the FBI’s college basketball probe, so Melton’s resume is limited to just his freshman season. Standing 6-4, Melton possesses an outstanding defensive acumen, registering both a block and steal rate of four percent.
36. Anfernee Simons: Rather than spend a season in the college ranks, Simons, a 6-4 guard who is one year removed from his high school graduating class, pairs superior athleticism with outstanding hops and a burgeoning offensive game.
37. Devonte Graham: Only nine other D-I guards relied on pick and roll as often — and as effectively — as Graham in 2018, at .91 points per P & R. He also refined a perimeter game that was often too inconsistent as a junior, converting more 41 percent of his threes (per Synergy Sports, he scored 1.12 points per contested jumper) in his final season. On a Kansas team that sorely lacked a reliable offense, Graham was often forced to do it all, and that dependence allowed him to showcase his playmaking as well as his individual game.
38. Gary Trent Jr.: At the moment, the freshman is — at best — a spot-up shooter. While that lack of offensive diversity might trouble some, Trent did score 1.03 points per jump shot, and according to Synergy Sports, nearly 40 percent of his possessions at Duke resulted in a jumper.
39. Moritz Wagner: The junior is perfectly suited for the changing NBA. Wagner is a stretch 5 who pairs a tight handle with an accurate perimeter game (42 percent during 2018 Big Ten play) and a newfound penchant for taking opponents off the bounce and converting at the rim. He attempted 245 two-point field goals, and, per Hoop-math.com, 41 percent of those attempts in the half-court were unassisted.
40. Landry Shamet: Before scoring 18 points and notching three assists in an early January win over Houston, Cougars Coach Kelvin Sampson said of Wichita State’s sophomore guard, “You give him the ball and he’ll make you a better coach. They better appreciate him around here … I hate saying that, but he’s really good. He’s different than everybody else. He was by far the best player on the floor.”
41. Shake Milton: The 6-6 guard is nearly unstoppable when he gets in a groove, which Wichita State learned in mid-January, a game against SMU in which Milton dropped 33 points on the Shockers, shooting 79 percent from the field against a team known for its defensive fortitude. On a squad with few offensive options, Milton often drew the opponent’s best defender, and he handled the pressure with an insouciant swagger, making 51 percent of his threes in AAC play and posting an offensive efficiency rating of 1.27 PPP.
42. Kevin Hervey: The UT-Arlington guard struggled throughout most of his senior season, but NBA execs aren’t likely concerned about that dip. The 6-7 Hervey has a wingspan of 7-plus feet and is known to consistently stretch defenses with his perimeter shooting.
43. Omari Spellman: Spellman slimmed down during his redshirt season at Villanova, and emerged as a prototypical pick and pop 4, a player agile enough in the half court who can space a defense for either drives to the rim or three-point attempts.
44. Hamidou Diallo: The freshman’s strengths — amazing athleticism, transcendent hops, dunking creativity — are well-known. What’s unknown, and frankly more of a concern, is whether his inconsistent season at Kentucky was a blip or a foreshadowing. There were stretches late in the season in which the Wildcats were a better team with Diallo on the bench, and that has to trouble some NBA execs.
45. Brandon McCoy: During an early December matchup with Arizona, McCoy, a 7-footer, far outshone his frontcourt contemporary, Ayton, posting 33 points and 10 rebounds in the 91-88 loss. While McCoy didn’t quite reach those heights again during his lone season at UNLV, his potential is apparent and vast. He’s a rim-running big with heightened court awareness (just 3.7 fouls committed per 40 minutes) and superb timing (block rate of 5.7 percent while grabbing a quarter of opponents’ misses).
46. Chimezie Metu: An intriguing prospect out of USC who possesses a burgeoning midrange game (per Hoop-math.com, making 40 percent of his two-point field goals) for a 6-11 big.
47. Kenrich Williams: The 6-7 Williams was effective in a variety of roles for TCU, and that versatility should be a boost to his NBA ability.
48. Malik Newman: As a high school prospect, Newman was regarded as a sui generis offensive talent, the type of player who can take over a game no matter the opponent. That promise didn’t translate until well into his sophomore season at Kansas (following a transfer from Mississippi State), when the 6-3 guard finally began to attack the basket and connect from the field (posting an effective field goal percentage in March of 64.7 percent). Newman clearly is still a tantalizing offensive talent, but that inconsistency could be a concern for some.
49. Jarred Vanderbilt: Marred by injuries throughout his freshman season, Vanderbilt had few opportunities to showcase his skill set. But when he did get minutes, his athleticism on both the offensive and defensive glass was impressive. In just fourteen games, the 6-9 big grabbed 23 percent of Kentucky’s misses while hauling in a whopping 28 percent of its opponents’ caroms.
50. Rodions Kurucs: Standing 6-10, Kurucs likely won’t see any playing time stateside next year, which is fine — he needs time to develop. But he is far from a project, possessing an athletic frame and an understanding of how to contribute on the court (if only he could get the minutes on a deep FC Barcelona Lassa frontcourt).
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