Baseball's annual Winter Meetings kicked off this weekend, promising a frenzy of high profile player movement sure to ignite a jolt offseason interest for the sport. Things got off to, shall we say, a puzzling start, as the so-called "Today's Era" Committee yesterday announced that it had elected reliever Lee Smith and designated hitter Harold Baines to the Hall of Fame.
Smith is a story for another day. There is a general difference of opinion among baseball analysts as to the standard that should be applied for enshrinement of relief pitchers. "Saves" are a stat that get some people's blood boiling. My opinion is that while saves are an overrated stat, long-term excellence at late-game domination should not be ignored. Smith doesn't meet the standard for me, but hey, at least half of the Baseball Writer' Association of America (BBWAA) thought he belonged during his stint on the ballot. He's at least a debatable selection.
Baines? He lasted four years on the BBWAA ballot, barely scraping by the 5.0% minimum threshold to remain eligible each time. 5.3%, 5.2%, 5.9% and 6.1% would seem to embody that definition.
Now, let's take a step back and realize that you had to be a pretty good baseball player for more than a little while to even get on the HOF ballot. In 2007, Baines' first year on the ballot, he received more votes (29) than Orel Hershiser, Albert Belle, Paul O'Neill, Bret Saberhagen, Jose Canseco, Tony Fernandez, Dante Bichette, Eric Davis, Bobby Bonilla, Ken Caminiti, Jay Buhner, Bobby Witt, Scott Brosius, Wally Joyner and Devon White, all of whom failed to meet the minimum threshold and therefore dropped off of the ballot.
Baines is far from an ordinary player. A .289-.356-.465 career slash line is nothing to be sneered at, nor is his total of 2866 career hits, one of the highest among non-HOF players. It must be noted 1670 of Baines' 2830 career games were spent in the DH role, where the offensive bar is very high. His 121 career OPS+ is actually pretty ordinary for a DH, though his ability to sustain that level of production over such a long career is noteworthy. As a player, he's basically Al Oliver (2743 hits, 121 career OPS+), and no one is clamoring (yet) to send him into the Hall.
Here are some names to keep in mind now that Baines is about to be enshrined. Steve Garvey. Dave Concepcion. Tommy John. Dave Parker. Dale Murphy. Don Mattingly. This is a partial list of players that Baines finished behind - some by a substantial margin - during his relatively short stint on the BBWAA ballot. Of that group, I'd set aside John, and put him on higher plane - he lasted 15 years on the ballot, maintaining a significant level of voter support.
Do many baseball observers seriously believe the others are Hall of Famers? Good, maybe even great players, at least for short spans, but Hall of Famers? Well, maybe they didn't yesterday, but do today, as the standard for induction has clearly changed. For fans of other sports, do you consider Matthew Stafford or Al Horford Hall of Famers? That is the caliber of player we're discussing, occasional All Stars without championship rings.
The BBWAA has its own set of problems, leaving out all-time inner circle greats like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens while inducting borderline at best candidates such as Jack Morris, Andre Dawson and Jim Rice in recent years. At least they have made some adjustments, admitting new voters with new ideas into the ranks while plowing through a ballot glut that is largely due to the game's steroid era, which is no fault of the writers.
This new committee, though....they were handed a list of passed-over candidates, and like previous incarnations of the Veterans Committee, they were simply going to have to make their mark and elect someone. The good news? Superior players like Lou Whitaker and Dwight Evans will finally, soon, have their respective days in the sun. The bad? Scores of others will join them and make the honor somewhat less meaningful. Harold Baines is, by all accounts, a good guy and a great teammate - and was a really good, but not great ballplayer. His credentials for the Hall of Fame are no better than they were yesterday.
