A nor'easter predicted to hit just days after a similar storm brought high winds and coastal flooding could spell erosion trouble for New Jersey beaches.
While Friday's nor'easter resulted in mostly minor flooding and damage to the coast, it's the rare combination of two storms separated by mere days that has experts and authorities on alert.
"It's the setup, because the beach will not get a chance to recover in any way before Wednesday," said Stewart Farrell, the director and founder of the Coastal Research Center at Stockton University.
The last time two large winter storms occurred so close together was in February 1996, he said. Smaller storms occur more often within the similar time frames, but do far less damage to the beaches, meaning they don't need the standard six-week recovery time to bounce back.
Friday's storm included winds that peaked at a rate of 71 mph in Cape May County, as well as downed trees and power lines across the state paired with rain and snow that snarled evening commutes.
It hit the western-facing bay shore in Cape May County the hardest, Farrell said, reaching and scarping the dunes and pulling plant debris onto the beach.
And while it's not yet clear the extent to which the the blustery day impacted the beaches, officials say favorable offshore winds helped to keep erosion to a minimum in most places.
"We did expect to see erosion from the storm," said Lawrence Hajna, a spokesman for the state's Department of Environmental Protection.
He said the DEP plans to send crews out to measure erosion along the coast, as they often do after large storms, but may wait until after Wednesday's storm to get to work.
The National Weather Service predicts the impending storm could drop 4 to 8 inches of snow around much of the state, and has issued warnings for coastal flooding. Some coastal flooding could occur along the northern and central parts of the coast, forecasters said.
Winds are expected to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, reaching around 24 mph Wednesday morning, according to the weather service.
"This storm is expected to have onshore winds, but be of shorter duration and lower tides than the previous storm," Hajna said late Monday afternoon.
While the shore has taken worse beatings in recent years, Farrell said storms are sized up on three parameters in terms of erosion: their intensity, duration and frequency.
"Right now, we're looking at [frequency] as a problem," he said.
"Four, five days later, we get another one. They build on each other's damage."
Several beaches, including parts of Mantoloking, Brigantine and Longport, are undergoing widening efforts by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Army Corps spokesman Steve Rochette said last week that the agency surveyed the beaches before the storm and would do so after to determine necessary repairs.
"In advance of these storms, we secure all of our sites that have active construction going on," Rochette said Monday morning. "The early reports indicate [there was] some minor to moderate erosion."
That means the waves did not clearly or heavily impact dunes at the beaches, which would be considered more serious erosion. The equipment will remain secured and work halted at least until Wednesday's storm passes, he said.
More minor erosion, like the kind Rochette described, is common for storms like Friday's, Hajna of the DEP said.
"In a typical nor'easter situation, the sand is transported just to the near-shore area," he explained, noting that tides can naturally and gradually replenish the sand over a summer season.
It's super storms like Hurricane Sandy that prove more probelmatic, as they often carry sand farther onto land and into the bay, taking it out of the system and prompting beach replinishment projects to counteract the effects.
"The sand loss was premanent," Hajna said of Sandy. "There was a lot of work, and that required more effort than what might occur after a nor'easter."
With another storm coming before the beaches can replenish naturally, however, it's trickier to predict how they might look at the end of the month or going into the summer season.
"It's going to take a little bit of time to know how much erosion has occurred and what the prospects are" to replace the sand, Hajna said.
And thanks to other replenishment efforts, the beaches may have a leg up on the storm.
"The good thing is, for New Jersey right now, the beaches are in pretty good shape, given the fact that tens of millions of dollars have been spent," Farrell said. "[The sand] is still out there."
Amanda Hoover can be reached at ahoover@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @amandahoovernj. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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